Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards

[Wilxy]

It's looking lively across the south, SE can't wait to radar watch the developments. Best chance of storms look confined to the far south and east.

[Biggin]

Interesting.

 

Not as bad for the SE on that animation.

 

Dorset and Somerset look to get wet!

And over quite quickly for se too

[Radiating Dendrite]

And over quite quickly for se too

 

We may pick up some seperate thunderstorms though, being in the higher CAPE area.

[Paul90]

France, Belgium and Netherlands will get the best of the storms.

 

We will be fighting for the scraps at the table, same as usual 

 

Hope i'm wrong

[Marcus_surfer]

Something is trying to build here but its another fine warm dry with some sunshine

Edited July 26, 2013 by Marcus_surfer

[chapmanslade]

The local BBC forecast and the national BBC forecast were completely different with regard to the timing of any rain tomorrow, 10am on one and 13.00 on the other. As I need to pack ready for the market tomorrow, (obviously not going if it pees down) can anyone give me a reasonable stab as to when the rain might actually arrive. Ta.

A 3 hour difference at this range is not completely different, statistically I suspect it is nearly the same !

[microclimate]

A 3 hour difference at this range is not completely different, statistically I suspect it is nearly the same ![/quoteSorry completely different to me as it's the difference between going and not going. I appreciate what you're saying though but with less than 24 hours to go it's still quite a big gap in my view.

[microclimate]

From past experience, it Depends on which local area and forecaster you have to be honest. Sounds like you're either Points West or South today? Lunchtime forecasts tend to be either recorded or use old charts. National BBC forecasts are always generally better and use the latest data from the MetO SM

Cheers, we're on the cusp of south/south west. I'll go with the national then..............no day off for me then!

[VillagePlank]

Certainly interesting, tomorrow,

 

[Paul]

Level 3 weather alert now issued

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alert-status;sess=

[Stuart]

had some rain and thunder could not see any Lighting

[Mark Parsons]

Cheers, we're on the cusp of south/south west. I'll go with the national then..............no day off for me then!

Are you off to Bridport market? If so the further west will be best, if you are going east then that might be dodgy. In my experience these kind of set ups often drag there heels a bit if they happen at all, i'm not expecting rain until after 2pm....................

[Staffordshire]

Phil avery very cautious to show graphics after 16:00 on saturday on the latest bbc forecast, must mean they are uncertain.

[Coast]

Interesting to see where the aviation charts have the mid-level significant weather and the direction of the flow:

 

[TwisterGirl81]

Sorted!

 

Not really....

 

 

 

Lol I love the video, you got to love Captain Jack Sparrow lol  Funny

[Lynxus]

Lovley convection around here today. lets hope that this is a sign the air is ready for storms!!!

Really dont wanna miss out this time round.

 

Estofex have a good extended forecast for tomorrow, Whilst not covering us. It does show something is going to explode down south tomorrow!

 

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2013072806_201307252133_2_extendedforecast.xml

[GoldenJackel]

Impressive looking clouds to my southwest at the moment. Hopefully something springs up a bit closer.

[VillagePlank]

Estofex already covering tomorrow,

 

 

"Strong deep-layer shear of 20 - 30 m/s suggests that some storms will become supercells, capable of producing produce large or very large hail."

 

'Nuff said!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Estofex already covering tomorrow,

 

showforecast.cgi.png

 

"Strong deep-layer shear of 20 - 30 m/s suggests that some storms will become supercells, capable of producing produce large or very large hail."

 

'Nuff said!

 

Yeah - over on the continent.

 

That warning has been out since yesterday - should be updated soon hopefully.

[joggs]

Estofex already covering tomorrow,

showforecast.cgi.png

"Strong deep-layer shear of 20 - 30 m/s suggests that some storms will become supercells, capable of producing produce large or very large hail."

'Nuff said!

Has the violet 3s ever gone up in Europe on these charts or are they just reserved for places like tornado alley u.s?

[microclimate]

Are you off to Bridport market? If so the further west will be best, if you are going east then that might be dodgy. In my experience these kind of set ups often drag there heels a bit if they happen at all, i'm not expecting rain until after 2pm....................

Yes, Met now has one rain drop at 10.00 so I won't bother to go. That said it's amazing how different the weather can be within a few miles

[Radiating Dendrite]

Has the violet 3s ever gone up in Europe on these charts or are they just reserved for places like tornado alley u.s?

 

 

I have seen a 3 - very rare though.

 

Estofex only forecast in Europe.

[Buckster]

flying ants across whole of town and sub-urbs today

 

good sign ...

[joggs]

Cheers RD.

[Ross B]

Thunderstorm here for the last 30mins with a second storm moving in