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South West & Central Southern Regional Discussion 2nd August 2013 >


Angelici Magiovinium
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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

    Please use this thread for your discussions about the current weather or what is being forecast for the next few days in this region....

     

     

     

    link to the previous one here...

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77340-south-westcentral-southern-regional-discussion-discussion-23rd-july-2013-onwards/page-39

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Edited by MKsnowangel
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    Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent

    Well a damp start today, with a touch of very light drizzle, but from mid morning sunny Posted Image  Not as warm as yesterdays 29.7C but still warmer than forecast with 24C currently, I guess as the forecast had today as cloudy here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Typically, a long line of convective cloud has decided to line up and move along its own line in front of the sun ensuring permanent shade where a few miles either side has sunshine. Shove off cloud, you're ruining what could be a lovely day!

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    Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

    24.1c.Some cloud. Sun is out. Humidity 62%......Indoors it is 24.5C....

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    Posted
  • Location: Gloucester - Quedgeley
  • Location: Gloucester - Quedgeley

    Posted Yesterday, 18:33

    I'm going to split this forecast into 2. One for tonight and one for tomorrow as developments tonight could be key to developments tomorrow.

    Tonight's forecast map;

    Posted Image

    The area in red, which includes Cornwall, South Devon and along the South Dorset coast will see some light, sporadic rainfall through the late evening and into the early hours. I'm not expecting this to be anything more than light, sporadic rainfall though. Cloudcover will increase over Cornwall in the next few hours ahead of this rainfall. The rainfall probably not reaching the South Dorset coast until the early hours.

    Elsewhere dry and starting clear, with cloudcover increasing from the west as we progress through the night. It will be a warm, muggy night everywhere.

    Tomorrow's forecast map;

    Posted Image

    This has been a challenging forecast to produce to say the least. Unlike today, where I had high confidence in my forecast, I have low confidence in this forecast, but it's the best I can come up with I think.

    The area in red is at risk of developing thundery showers from late morning onwards, perhaps merging into some potent thunderstorm cells in the afternoon, although by the time this happens it may well have moved out of our region. This includes Oxfordshire, North Hampshire and parts of Berkshire. FWIW, the East Midlands into Lincolnshire may well see a late afternoon MCS tomorrow.

    The area in green might see some sort of squall line developing. This includes the Forest of Green, Gloucestershire and maybe north Bristol. During the afternoon there could be some weak CAPE developing along with surface heating this could help to produce some isolated thundery showers along a convergence line from SE Wales into the Cotswolds and Midlands. There could be some isolated heavy falls of rain, gusty winds and isolated thundery activity mixed in here.

    The area in blue, which includes Cornwall and parts of Devon will see some moderate rainfall enter the region late afternoon into the evening. This again could have some isolated thundery activity mixed in with it, although as sunlight fades, I expect any thundery activity to also fade.

    Elsewhere, it's going to be a mix of sunny spells, cloudcover and the odd scattered shower. Not all places will see the showers, many will stay dry. The east of the region should see temperatures into the mid 20c's with the west of the region into the low 20c's.

    A challenging forecast to which I may update if necessary at 23:00.

     

    Spot on AWD with your green area !

    Its monsooning it down in the Forest of Dean area.

    John in Gloucester

    Edited by gloucesterlad
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Latest radar;

    post-12721-0-69165000-1375455439_thumb.j

    We have the early stages of an attempted squall line developing over Gloucestershire and into the south Midlands.

    We have interesting developments in the channel with activity heading towards the Isle of Wight and into Hampshire.

    We have rain heading into Cornwall. Could be a few suprises for some this evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horringford, Isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: snow/thunderstorms
  • Location: Horringford, Isle of wight

    You beat me too it awd. Am I right in thinking that the island could get quite a soaking to end the day ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    You beat me too it awd. Am I right in thinking that the island could get quite a soaking to end the day ?

    Could do mate. Hampshire is one of the better placed locations to catch something later.Watch the radar!! :)
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    Kudos to you AWD, your post last night looks to be spot on. Any idea on how much you think the squall will intensify?

     

    Temps got up to about 22C here today, and still felt rather warm in the sunshine.

     

    Monday's looking pretty wet at the moment aswell:

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

    Lovely storm heading for west cornwall right now!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Could do mate. Hampshire is one of the better placed locations to catch something later.

    Watch the radar!! Posted Image

    Nothing for us?

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Nothing for us?

    Keep an eye on the radar mate, see if anything else develops on the southern flank of what's developed over Gloucestershire. Your in the north of the city so you have a chance, albeit small. Otherwise it's a case of watching anything wise develop to our South West, as stuff is over Cornwall. Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

    Good luck in the SW...

     

    Your about to get very wet,.

     

    Just need some ThunAdos now Posted Image

     

    post-182-0-01269900-1375458290_thumb.png

     

    Oh and this just popped up!

     

    post-182-0-16156700-1375459259_thumb.png

    Edited by Lynxus
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    Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

    Shocker...

     

    TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2013/011 

    A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 15:40GMT on Friday 2nd August 2013 

    Valid from/until: 15:40 – 06:00GMT on Friday 2nd August/Saturday 3rd August 2013 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire: 

    England 

    Wales 

    THREATS 

    Isolated tornadoes; wind gusts to 50mph; CG lightning; hail 10-20mm diameter 

    SYNOPSIS 

    Large-scale upper trough is moving in from the west, with several areas of showers and thunderstorms ongoing across England and Wales, albeit fairly widely scattered. Some of these storms have been reasonably long-lived, and could be supercells, or at least exhibiting some storm-scale rotation - they are well organised. 

    These pose a risk for hail and wind, and perhaps a tornado, although the overall risk is deemed too low for a watch. Overnight, further showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially in western and southern parts. It may be that many eastern and north-eastern areas actually have a fairly low risk overnight - however, with models signalling some organised areas of convection moving north-east overnight, amidst enough shear for organised storms, the risk area has been made fairly large. 

    The risk for organised storms will slowly decrease west to east through tonight, as the upper trough moves in and the deep layer shear decreases. 

    Forecaster: RPK.

    Edited by Lynxus
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    Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

    Actually, Those of you closer to the sea. 

     

    With Torro's warning out, I would be very careful and keep an eye out for these:

     

    post-182-0-91383200-1375458822_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    Having missed all of the action recently

     

    Looking good now, Angry skies. Rain shafts out in the ocean

     

    By the looks of the radar plenty more to head up this way

     

    Got lightning detected Cornwall and south-west approaches

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    Posted
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall

    Gentle thunder here!! Clouds are very dark - have seen one very feint flicker of lightning. Extremely muggy feeling. Oooh after all these weeks of nowt - little nieces are running around shouting at the storm to come! Little storm chasers in the making I think. No rain yet but very threatening.

    Edited by Erbyskerby
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    Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

    Any important updates to the Cornwall storm will be posted @kernowweather :)

    Stay safe all. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Running the radar and sat24 sequences, I'm trying to work out just how quickly its moving NEwards, in light of when to expect it to arrive in the Weston-Bristol area. Looks impressive off the Cornish and Devon coast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

    Running the radar and sat24 sequences, I'm trying to work out just how quickly its moving NEwards, in light of when to expect it to arrive in the Weston-Bristol area. Looks impressive off the Cornish and Devon coast.

     

     

    Reaaaaaaalllly slowly, 

    Its barely moved eastwards all day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Castle Cary, South Somerset 38m/124.67ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Proper seasonal weather but especially warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Nr Castle Cary, South Somerset 38m/124.67ft asl

    My friend and her family left at lunchtime for Cornwall for a weeks holiday.  Not sure she is going to like what she has driven into looking at the radar Posted Image its been a glorious day here apart from the wind.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Sun and cloud here; windy as well and no showers since this morning. Temp must be around 20c i guess.

    The CB's are huge to my west and now beginning to move closer. The sun is beginning to get blocked out and the skies are darkening.

    Edited by Karl83
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