South West & Central Southern Regional Discussion 2nd August 2013 >

[AWD]

Here is a snapshot at mid afternoon from one of the high res models I use;

The latest update as just rolled in and it has pushed the drizzle/light rain a bit further westwards but the cloudcover area has remained the same.

Therefore, my confidence that the red area will see an increasingly cloudy story after some very early morning sunshine is high. However, my confidence in drizzle/light rain crossing the channel is low. I won't chop and change my forecasts though as that will just cause confusion so I'll stick with my earlier forecast.

Also note the "blob" of PPN over Torbay. Possible signal of some weak shower development that William talked about earlier. With limited sunshine and a lot of cloudcover still shown, I don't think it will cause much excitement/activity if it indeed does verify though. A light shower or two is probably favoured.

Anyway, just thought I'd give you a little reasoning behind my thoughts. Confidence in a cloudy day for the red area is high, confidence on location of any drizzle/light rain and shower activity over South Devon is low. Either way, we are still looking at a drab day compared to today.

East of the cloudcover and into C/S England and you won't know the difference. Wiltshire eastwards could be in for another scorcher.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Well, I never! 0% storm chance, today. Look at tomorrow!

 

Here is a snapshot at mid afternoon from one of the high res models I use;

image.jpg

The latest update as just rolled in and it has pushed the drizzle/light rain a bit further westwards but the cloudcover area has remained the same.

Therefore, my confidence that the red area will see an increasingly cloudy story after some very early morning sunshine is high. However, my confidence in drizzle/light rain crossing the channel is low. I won't chop and change my forecasts though as that will just cause confusion so I'll stick with my earlier forecast.

Also note the "blob" of PPN over Torbay. Possible signal of some weak shower development that William talked about earlier. With limited sunshine and a lot of cloudcover still shown, I don't think it will cause much excitement/activity if it indeed does verify though. A light shower or two is probably favoured.

Anyway, just thought I'd give you a little reasoning behind my thoughts. Confidence in a cloudy day for the red area is high, confidence on location of any drizzle/light rain and shower activity over South Devon is low. Either way, we are still looking at a drab day compared to today.

East of the cloudcover and into C/S England and you won't know the difference. Wiltshire eastwards could be in for another scorcher.

That looks interesting. It's a bit too far west for me but I still might catch a few showers. I might even be able to see these showers, anyway.

[A.J]

Bickering and name calling type posts simply WON'T be tolerated.....end of

[MP-R]

I'm sorry? Is that aimed at me? I've not been calling anyone names!

I'm up to nothing I'm just interested in tomorrow's weather. Problem?

 

Quit while you're ahead mate. If another poster has said something that irritates/annoys/offends you etc. it's best just to ignore it or perhaps advise a moderator if serious. Gotta keep this regional thread the most friendly on the forum

[Sainsbo]

So much bickering... Did I accidentally click on the model thread?

 

Temperatue is still hovering around 20C now after a daytime high of 26C. Going to be a sticky night tonight I think.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Quit while you're ahead mate. If another poster has said something that irritates/annoys/offends you etc. it's best just to ignore it or perhaps advise a moderator if serious. Gotta keep this regional thread the most friendly on the forum

I have reported it to a moderator but thanks for your understand Miguel, you are a nice person.

So much bickering... Did I accidentally click on the model thread?

 

Temperatue is still hovering around 20C now after a daytime high of 26C. Going to be a sticky night tonight I think.

Yeah, that's not me either....

[Guest William Grimsley]

Anyway, back to weather...No showers about now in SW England. Let's see what happens tomorrow weatherwise. We might even see a shower maybe a downpour. Who knows? 

Good Night. 

[A.J]

Not very happy with some of the posts in here tonight...I've had to delete one which contained some very uncalled for remarks aimed at another member......Please think before posting and if any member has any issues with any post, then hit the 'report' button and let the forum team deal with it.....

 

cheers

[BARRY]

well it's been hot today and the theme continues tonight, and as it's only august long my it continue it's a long winter

[ARTDEMOLE]

17.1. Some stars are showing with some cloud around.

[SunnySouthCoast]

Turned out hot here today with a max of 28C! Nearby Lee-On-Solent was the warmest Met Office station today with 27C.

[Guest William Grimsley]

WOW! 52% storm chance for me, this evening! Look at the UK storm risk chart for 19:00!

 

Edited August 27, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Guest William Grimsley]

Still, the UK CAPE+Lifted Index chart doesn't look that amazing with a UK CAPE of 200 - 300 j/kg and a Lifted Index of 0!

 

Edited August 27, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Guest William Grimsley]

Just went outside and saw a lot of cumulus and a little bit of altocumulus castallaneus clouds to my W, WNW, NW and NNW. What a great start to maybe an eventful day.

Edited August 27, 2013 by William Grimsley

[AWD]

After a bright start, an area of cloud is coming down from the WNW.

I do think I may have gone a little OTT with the drizzle I forecast last night, hopefully most of this will stay the otherside of the channel now.

However, the cloudcover side of things does look like increasing for the areas highlighted throughout the next few hours.

[Guest William Grimsley]

After a bright start, an area of cloud is coming down from the WNW.I do think I may have gone a little OTT with the drizzle I forecast last night, hopefully most of this will stay the otherside of the channel now.However, the cloudcover side of things does look like increasing for the areas highlighted throughout the next few hours.

More than drizzle here. The clouds look very menacing!

[AWD]

More than drizzle here. The clouds look very menacing!

Worth noting that when I said "channel" I meant Bristol Channel rather than the English Channel near you.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Worth noting that when I said "channel" I meant Bristol Channel rather than the English Channel near you.

Yeah I know that's why stuff will be allowed to develop infront of it.

[gottolovethisweather]

Is that stuff coming in from the West connected with a frontal feature or anything and is it likely to pep up a bit?

 

Having re-read AWDs analysis from yesterday, it appears not. Nevertheless, it could be radar watching day for parts of Devon and Cornwall should one get the chance.

Edited August 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Yeah I know that's why stuff will be allowed to develop infront of it.

I see little convective/shower activity today for 99% of us but that is just my personal opinion. One or two showers could form, as you say, ahead of the weakening band but these will be the exception rather than the rule.A lot of the cloud here is high based currently. Whilst this makes for a brighter look than originally thought, it will also prohibit the full effects of diurnal heating etc.Anyway, lets see how things develop throughout the day. With a weakening front and some muggy air in front of it, weird things can happen occasionally. I've seen a lot of forecasts go bust on situations like this.

[Guest William Grimsley]

I see little convective/shower activity today for 99% of us but that is just my personal opinion.One or two showers could form, as you say, ahead of the weakening band but these will be the exception rather than the rule.A lot of the cloud here is high based currently. Whilst this makes for a brighter look than originally thought, it will also prohibit the full effects of diurnal heating etc.Anyway, lets see how things develop throughout the day. With a weakening front and some muggy air in front of it, weird things can happen occasionally. I've seen a lot of forecasts go bust on situations like this.

Yeah, I don't think there will be widespread downpours by any means. But, looking at the charts, I can't understand why you think we've got hardly any chance. We've definitely got more chance than yesterday, today. Hopefully, this muggy air will give us some showers especially with the clouds I've seen this morning.  

Is that stuff coming in from the West connected with a frontal feature or anything and is it likely to pep up a bit?

 

Having re-read AWDs analysis from yesterday, it appears not. Nevertheless, it could be radar watching day for parts of Devon and Cornwall should one get the chance.

I think it could pep up a bit or some showers will develop infront of it.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Seems like most of the clouds have gone away. Strange.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Run 06z is now out and nothing much has changed with the UK storm risk chart except higher chance further S than me now, still in the 40% boundary, though.

 

[Lyn-M]

After the early mist and fog cleared, we have a hazily sunny and warm late morning.

[Sainsbo]

Only 20C here at the minute but it is feeling much warmer. Humidity is at 70% and DewPoint at 14C is making it feel rather uncomfortable.