Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14

[Yarmy]

There looks to be decent gains forecast for the all important below 60N area.

 

 

Yes, Cohen's theory is based on snowcover gain rate S of 60 degrees, I believe. Reinforces the Siberian high and the knock-on effects from that.

[joggs]

Fascinating stuff,cheers peeps.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well, well, well.  Haven't been on in a couple of days, but the N.H snow and ice is doing very well.  Westward expansion is looking very good indeed.

 

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

 The latest value: 7,689,301 km²â€‚(October 20, 2013)

 

 

 

Keep an eye out for my comparison update in the Eurasian snow advance thread later this month. 

 

When you do so IBTH, can you also post it in here as I often forget to visit that particular thread.

[smithyweather]

There looks to be decent gains forecast for the all important below 60N area.

Really? They were bumming and blowing on the model thread about how it is gonna melt out to west russia.

[Mark Neal.]

Really? They were bumming and blowing on the model thread about how it is gonna melt out to west russia.

 Yes they are, though as time carries on there is alot of thought into how far the Atlantic and westerly influence will push milder air. Massive question marks on this and i think for the most part our snow expansion will continue for now and there wont be as much melt as some have been expecting. 

[smithyweather]

So the snow will continue to expand in Scandanavia?

[Mark Neal.]

So the snow will continue to expand in Scandanavia?

 

I havent really seen much of the weather models and what they are showing over to our NE in the coming days ahead, but for now an expansion, though for us still mild and unsettled, with colder weather certainly at a premium at the moment. 

[smithyweather]

Well I don't care. I am of the opinion that this warmth will not last after mid November and the pattern will change. To be honest if it does change it can't really get warmer so it will probably go colder. I mean there are positive signs with this snow growth. It was actually below -15c in Norway last night so the cold is on either side of us (Iceland and Norway).

Edited October 21, 2013 by smithyweather

[Buriedundersnow]

saw this posted on twitter so thought I would drop it in here

 

Edited October 21, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[sebastiaan1973]

Yes, Cohen's theory is based on snowcover gain rate S of 60 degrees, I believe. Reinforces the Siberian high and the knock-on effects from that.

Yes it is. So it not going that well. We still need a lot of snow in that area. Fingers crossed.

[Gavin Hannah]

I reckon westward expansion is just as important for cooling the westerlie air masses pushing across the continent. And we are doing very well in that regard.

[Yarmy]

Yes it is. So it not going that well. We still need a lot of snow in that area. Fingers crossed.

 

Yes, comparing yesterday...

 

 

...with the same date in 2010...

 

 

...we are doing well overall. But in 2010 the southern extent of the snow cover then increased quite rapidly...

 

 

So probably we would want to see a decent southern push between now and the end of the month.

 

Edited October 22, 2013 by Yarmy

[Yarmy]

I reckon westward expansion is just as important for cooling the westerlie air masses pushing across the continent. And we are doing very well in that regard.

 

You'd certainly think it can't hurt.

[snowking]

Forecast snow cover change out to 192 from the 0z GFS:

 

 

Nothing spectacular but every little helps - especially with much of the increase (blue) being South of the magical 60N.

 

SK

Edited October 22, 2013 by snowking

[Yarmy]

Forecast snow cover change out to 192 from the 0z GFS:

 

snowcoverchange.gif

 

Nothing spectacular but every little helps - especially with much of the increase (blue) being South of the magical 60N.

 

SK

 

Yes, encouraging. I do wonder how the models (both medium and long range) deal with rapid changes in albedo.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The rate of increase for the IJIS sea ice extent has slowed to well below average in recent days, letting us fall an extra 100k behind the 2000s average in just 5 days, and down to 6th lowest on record.

 

 

We're still over 1 million km2 ahead of 2007, 2011 and 2012 though.

[Gavin Hannah]

The rate of increase for the IJIS sea ice extent has slowed to well below average in recent days, letting us fall an extra 100k behind the 2000s average in just 5 days, and down to 6th lowest on record.

 

October21IJIS.JPG

 

We're still over 1 million km2 ahead of 2007, 2011 and 2012 though.

 

 

This was always on the cards though. The rapid refreeze this year is still amazing, but we very quickly ran out of open ocean that could freeze easily at this time of year.  The IJIS plot will most likely see the 2013 trace converge towards the recent years plots. But which side of the average line will it be come the halfway point?

 

The latest value: 7,767,399 km²â€‚(October 21, 2013)

Edited October 22, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[BornFromTheVoid]

This was always on the cards though. The rapid refreeze this year is still amazing, but we very quickly ran out of open ocean that could freeze easily at this time of year.  The IJIS plot will most likely see the 2013 trace converge towards the recent years plots. But which side of the average line will it be come the halfway point?

 

I don't think running out of open ocean is the problem, especially when we're at 6th lowest on record and dropping further below average. We've still got another 7 million km2 or so until we reach the maximum, so there's plenty of ocean remaining to freeze, especially near the Bering strait and toward the Kara and Barents Seas and the Baffin sea.

I think we're now having to deal with warmer SSTs, so they'll have to release their heat before freezing, which is happening now with large surface air temperature anomalies forming.

 

[Gavin Hannah]

I don't think running out of open ocean is the problem, especially when we're at 6th lowest on record and dropping further below average. We've still got another 7 million km2 or so until we reach the maximum, so there's plenty of ocean remaining to freeze, especially near the Bering strait and toward the Kara and Barents Seas and the Baffin sea.

I think we're now having to deal with warmer SSTs, so they'll have to release their heat before freezing, which is happening now with large surface air temperature anomalies forming.

 

 

 

That's what I was alluding to when I said "refreeze easily".  But yeah, much clearer when you mention the SST lol.

[lorenzo]

Quick Gif for October with the 60 line denoted.

 

 

http://gifmaker.me/PlayFrameAnimation.php?folder=2013102207xXFZ1V7rMLGlDkBoNN2Pgl

 

 

Along with monitoring this and the OPI - October Pattern Index, certainly adds another dimension to watching the season unfold to determine how much truth is in the theory..

Edited October 22, 2013 by lorenzo

[BornFromTheVoid]

Quick Gif for October with the 60 line denoted.

 

October SAI.gif

 

http://gifmaker.me/PlayFrameAnimation.php?folder=2013102207xXFZ1V7rMLGlDkBoNN2Pgl

 

 

Along with monitoring this and the OPI - October Pattern Index, certainly adds another dimension to watching the season unfold to determine how much truth is in the theory..

 

What are the two dates in the animation?

[Yarmy]

What are the two dates in the animation?

 Sep 30 and Oct 21

[lorenzo]

From the  01st October and 22nd October.

 

Lifted from this Index. ftp://140.90.213.161/autosnow/4kmNH/

 

As Yarmy points out, thereby the days before.

Edited October 22, 2013 by lorenzo

[BornFromTheVoid]

Cheers guys, just spotted the date hovering over the eastern Pacific!

[gottolovethisweather]

Whether or not, the weather remains very mild (as high as 19c in places next couple of days) or not as we head into November. The models, at least the 12z ECM is once hinting at a Northerly shot for a day or two, which falls in line with my posting from the other day. So clearly some good news and although not a precursor to a desperately cold Winter or even colder spell upcoming, today, up on the local hills I witnessed several flocks of Fieldfare with one group containing about 100 or so birds. Hopefully the colder snap is forthcoming then?