Convective / Storm Discussion - 23rd August onwards 2013

[Supacell]

The Canaries are not well known for there convective activity and I think on balance there are far more thundery places in Europe. The Canaries are located in a position whereby the Azores high keeps it very dry and convection suppressed for most of the year. 

 

Spain on the other hand can produce big thunderstorms, although traditionally during the summer months most of these are inland and close to mountainous areas. I read somewhere that Madrid is the most thundery city in Europe. The south and east coasts along with the Balearic's are more likely to see storms through the Sept-Nov period, which is there "storm season" so to speak.

[cheese]

The Canaries are not well known for there convective activity and I think on balance there are far more thundery places in Europe. The Canaries are located in a position whereby the Azores high keeps it very dry and convection suppressed for most of the year. 

 

Spain on the other hand can produce big thunderstorms, although traditionally during the summer months most of these are inland and close to mountainous areas. I read somewhere that Madrid is the most thundery city in Europe. The south and east coasts along with the Balearic's are more likely to see storms through the Sept-Nov period, which is there "storm season" so to speak.

Athens is quite thundery too - but these places are also very dry in the summer. I think they may get a good deal of dry lightning.

Edited August 29, 2013 by cheese

[Coast]

Something to watch while we wait:

 

[poseidon]

Possibly some hope for some next Wednesday, long way off though......

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

 I think they may get a good deal of dry lightning.

 

Yeah, have to watch out for that wet lightning. Water and electric isn't a good mix

[Guest William Grimsley]

Possibly some hope for some next Wednesday, long way off though......

 

 

Cool I go with you on that one.

 

UK CAPE+Lifted Index. Valid: Wed 04/09 18:00. Looks good but I just hope the -2 Lifted Index moves down a bit more S.

 

 

UK CAPE+Lifted Index. Valid: Thu 05/09 15:00. This looks good, too.

 

Edited August 30, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Guest William Grimsley]

UK storm risk. Valid: Thu 05/09 15:00. Looks very promising for Devon.

 

[Coast]

UK storm risk. Valid: Thu 05/09 15:00. Looks very promising for Devon.

 

 

A bit too far away at the moment for any accuracy and with that in mind, GFS currently has it only as rain: 

 

 

 

At the moment all I can see is an extension of the current quiet period, but obviously subject to change as the next few days and model runs play out.

[Guest William Grimsley]

A bit too far away at the moment for any accuracy and with that in mind, GFS currently has it only as rain: 

 

 

 

At the moment all I can see is an extension of the current quiet period, but obviously subject to change as the next few days and model runs play out.

Yeah it is a bit far away but something to watch.

[Supacell]

Middle of next week is something to watch but at the minute it is looking unlikely for any thundery activity. Problem is we have two scenarios that appear to be showing up:

 

1) High pressure to hold firm and prevent any rain bearing fronts from getting very far across the country and suppressing any chance of convection. There may be weak fronts as per those we are currently seeing but for most it would be dry and increasingly warm again.

 

2) The Atlantic comes straight through us with fronts introducing cooler more Autumnal weather once more which again does not bode well for thundery activity.

 

It is a long way off. IMO the best possibility would be for an area of low pressure to take up residence to our SW and draw in a warm plume from off the continent. This option is not out of the question either and there is a lot of warmth just to our south. To be fair, by middle of next week anything could happen (although snow is unlikely )

Edited August 30, 2013 by Supacell

[Guest William Grimsley]

Middle of next week is something to watch but at the minute it is looking unlikely for any thundery activity. Problem is we have two scenarios that appear to be showing up:

 

1) High pressure to hold firm and prevent any rain bearing fronts from getting very far across the country and suppressing any chance of convection. There may be weak fronts as per those we are currently seeing but for most it would be dry and increasingly warm again.

 

2) The Atlantic comes straight through us with fronts introducing cooler more Autumnal weather once more which again does not bode well for thundery activity.

 

It is a long way off. IMO the best possibility would be for an area of low pressure to take up residence to our SW and draw in a warm plume from off the continent. This option is not out of the question either and there is a lot of warmth just to our south. To be fair, by middle of next week anything could happen (although snow is unlikely )

I'm watching the middle of next week closely. As you can see by my images I posted earlier today, it shows a very good sign of some thundery weather for Thursday, especially. I wish we could get a plume of the continent but that's unlikely this late in the year. I have good indications that mid week could be quite unsettled with rain or showers/thunderstorms. Who knows what could happen next week. We shall see and wait...

[Guest William Grimsley]

Grrr, this is annoying. Look at the difference between the two UK storm risk. Valid: Thu 05/09 15:00.

 

Current Run:

 

 

Previous Run:

 

 

Edited August 30, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Supacell]

I'm watching the middle of next week closely. As you can see by my images I posted earlier today, it shows a very good sign of some thundery weather for Thursday, especially. I wish we could get a plume of the continent but that's unlikely this late in the year. I have good indications that mid week could be quite unsettled with rain or showers/thunderstorms. Who knows what could happen next week. We shall see and wait...

 

A plume can still occur this time of the year. A plume brought some really good thunderstorms across south Derby on the 11th September 2006, then three days later a tornado hit just north of the city.

 

Check out this footage from the 23rd Sept 2010 - not my footage although I was out chasing on this day (didn't see anything like this though as I lived up in Yorkshire and so wasn't able to travel to where the main activity was).

 

 

I also witnessed an intense storm with marble sized hail and lots of lightning on the 20th October 2004 along a squall line which brought storms and damaging winds to North Wales.

Edited August 30, 2013 by Supacell

[Guest William Grimsley]

A plume can still occur this time of the year. A plume brought some really good thunderstorms across south Derby on the 11th September 2006, then three days later a tornado hit just north of the city.

 

Check out this footage from the 23rd Sept 2010 - not my footage although I was out chasing on this day (didn't see anything like this though as I lived up in Yorkshire and so wasn't able to travel to where the main activity was).

 

 

I also witnessed an intense storm with marble sized hail and lots of lightning on the 20th October 2004 along a squall line which brought storms and damaging winds to North Wales.

I suppose it isn't too late in the year, really. I've watched that YouTube video before. What a cracking storm and one hell of a cumulonbimus cloud! I hope we do get something more this year.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Apart from some brilliant storms all within a few weeks, this year has been very sleepy indeed for longevity of convective weather. I wouldn't change the storms we had for a lot of things, but I wish we had more! 

Surely next summer will have more convective events, lets just hope they are as good as what we got this year though too, as I'm certainly not complaining about the display they put on. I reckon though this is the first time I've witnessed more storms at night than in the day!! And to be honest, I forgot how good it really is to get a good old night storm, really brought back some 90's style nostalgia

[Convective]

Late next week COULD fire something up from the south. Could being the operative word at this stage. A short-lived low centre develops west of France and a conveyor belt set-up, in our favour looks plausible. Long way off but the possibility is certainly there...

[Guest William Grimsley]

Late next week COULD fire something up from the south. Could being the operative word at this stage. A short-lived low centre develops west of France and a conveyor belt set-up, in our favour looks plausible. Long way off but the possibility is certainly there...

I hope so. I want some stormy weather.

[Chris K]

Late next week COULD fire something up from the south. Could being the operative word at this stage. A short-lived low centre develops west of France and a conveyor belt set-up, in our favour looks plausible. Long way off but the possibility is certainly there...

Yea the trend has been there, but I think it will depend on how fast the trough modelled to the N/NW at the same time moves closer to the UK (if it does of course). If too soon, any developments from our South look likely to be pushed Eastwards too fast.Certainly keeping my eye on it though, as I missed the storms during early August and seen nil activity this year....I even feel like convective shower activity overall has been lacking.

[Supacell]

Apart from some brilliant storms all within a few weeks, this year has been very sleepy indeed for longevity of convective weather. I wouldn't change the storms we had for a lot of things, but I wish we had more! 

Surely next summer will have more convective events, lets just hope they are as good as what we got this year though too, as I'm certainly not complaining about the display they put on. I reckon though this is the first time I've witnessed more storms at night than in the day!! And to be honest, I forgot how good it really is to get a good old night storm, really brought back some 90's style nostalgia

 

Totally agree with all of the above. Even though there has been just a short period of decent storms, this year still betters a lot of years past for the greatness of the storms that did occur. Still not a 2006 beater though i'm afraid, unless September delivers.

Edited August 30, 2013 by Supacell

[Mesoscale]

Apart from some brilliant storms all within a few weeks, this year has been very sleepy indeed for longevity of convective weather. I wouldn't change the storms we had for a lot of things, but I wish we had more! 

Surely next summer will have more convective events, lets just hope they are as good as what we got this year though too, as I'm certainly not complaining about the display they put on. I reckon though this is the first time I've witnessed more storms at night than in the day!! And to be honest, I forgot how good it really is to get a good old night storm, really brought back some 90's style nostalgia

 

At least you got some, I had one thunderstorm close(ish) with just sheet lightning that lasted about 10 minutes the rest went in every direction apart from mine. The night storms decided to die off before getting here and then re-fire north of the M25, what a disappointing year storm wise it has been this year for me. The weather in general though has been absolutely awesome, temperatures have been perfect. We have had a mix of warm/hot days and a mix cool nights and warm nights with relatively low dew points so nights haven't been too bad. I can deal without having storms if the payoff is a good summer. I just hope because of the warm weather we have been having that it doesn't increase winter temperatures, if we have a bitterly cold winter with this year’s summer that would make it a perfect year!

[Guest William Grimsley]

UK storm risk. Valid: Thu 05/09 15:00. Nothing forecast for here, now.

 

 

Edited August 30, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Convective]

UK storm risk. Valid: Thu 05/09 15:00. Nothing forecast for here, now.

 

 

 

Trust me, there's no point using them as an indication to where's going to get what  Most cases it's not until the actual day that we (and the models) are able to determine where abouts is likely to get the best and worst of the weather.

Edited August 30, 2013 by Convective

[Guest William Grimsley]

Trust me, there's no point using them as an indication to where's going to get what  Most cases it's not until the actual day that we (and the models) are able to determine where abouts is likely to get the best and worst of the weather.

Yeah as you said, it's always most accurate the day the weather happens. You're correct there.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

At least you got some, I had one thunderstorm close(ish) with just sheet lightning that lasted about 10 minutes the rest went in every direction apart from mine. The night storms decided to die off before getting here and then re-fire north of the M25, what a disappointing year storm wise it has been this year for me. The weather in general though has been absolutely awesome, temperatures have been perfect. We have had a mix of warm/hot days and a mix cool nights and warm nights with relatively low dew points so nights haven't been too bad. I can deal without having storms if the payoff is a good summer. I just hope because of the warm weather we have been having that it doesn't increase winter temperatures, if we have a bitterly cold winter with this year’s summer that would make it a perfect year!

Ah dear. Hopefully next year we'll see some more widespread convective weather, with the same warm weather though! Definitely a correlation with better intense storms coming with high temperatures. 

As for winter, god only knows what we will have. I seem to remember though that people were writing it off after the failed December Easterly and Northern blocking was nowhere to be seen, a month later we were fearing a potential 1947 event!! It was a complete contrast and a very abrupt change from the washout December and early January we had. It is very unpredictable and I'm sure we will get a surprise at some point. I'm not going to call anything until we are in December at least, as we just do not know what might be thrown at us! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Totally agree with all of the above. Even though there has been just a short period of decent storms, this year still betters a lot of years past for the greatness of the storms that did occur. Still not a 2006 beater though i'm afraid, unless September delivers.

Nah, 2006 was an exceptional year, for everything you can think of! Cracking storms, extremely high temperatures and pleasant evenings. Probably my favourite year of my lifetime so far.