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Convective / Storm Discussion - 23rd August onwards 2013

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

Nah, 2006 was an exceptional year, for everything you can think of! Cracking storms, extremely high temperatures and pleasant evenings. Probably my favourite year of my lifetime so far.

Even so, this summer was the sunniest, driest and warmest summer since 2006! :D

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Keraunic Seasoned

Keraunic

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
Posted

September 2006 was my last really decent storm in Norwich.

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BARRY Aficionado

BARRY

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Posted

UK storm risk. Valid: Sun 15/09 12:00. This is a bit far away but that's convincing! Posted Image

 

Posted Image

it wont look anything like that

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

September 2006 was my last really decent storm in Norwich.

Yep I definitely remember the storm of September 2006 :). Seemed like that year of hot weather and storms would never end!

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Christ almighty! What a downpour that was! Hardly registered on the radar though!

 

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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

Just one storm for us this year. That's been pretty consistent for several years now.

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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted

 Is ECM now showing a thundery plume setup end of next week?

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Beginning to look very good for here as I leave for the Balearics for 15 days on the 4th ECM wise anyway. Thunder does not look far away. Does look like it could get quite sparky anywhere from Morocco to the UK towards the middle of this week though, and over Eastern Spain and the Balearics, I'll put money on getting an absolute belter, so I'm almost certain I'll be able to deliver you lot some good pics on my arrival back :D

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

I'll take that thank you very much! :D

 

Posted Image

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

 Is ECM now showing a thundery plume setup end of next week?

Yeah I've seen that. Next weekend looks very thundery!

I'll take that thank you very much! Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Oh yes! Upper level winds coming straight from the middle of France! Perfect! :D

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted (edited)

WOW! UK storm risk. Vaild: Sun 08/09/2013 18:00.

Posted Image

 

WOW! UK storm risk. Vaild: Mon 09/09/2013 0:00.

 

Posted Image

Edited by William Grimsley
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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted (edited)

This looks interesting! Very heavy rain for Friday Evening! Seen as it's coming up from France, this could have some thunderstorm activity in it! Netweather.tv are currently saying 0% at the moment, though. Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by William Grimsley
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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

This looks interesting! Very heavy rain for Friday Evening! Seen as it's coming up from France, this could have some thunderstorm activity in it! Netweather.tv are currently saying 0% at the moment, though. Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

It's too early for specifics at this range. However, if we are looking for trends and possibilities then the overall view of the models is good. There is a lot that could go wrong with this set up though, but also so much that could go right. Worth keeping an eye on.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

A long way out in meteorological terms, but a settled period down South, builds convectively towards the 8th/9th on GFS:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Which could bring something like this:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's too early for specifics at this range. However, if we are looking for trends and possibilities then the overall view of the models is good. There is a lot that could go wrong with this set up though, but also so much that could go right. Worth keeping an eye on.

Yeah, I agree. It does look quite good for some thundery weather next weekend. Posted Image

A long way out in meteorological terms, but a settled period down South, builds convectively towards the 8th/9th on GFS:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Which could bring something like this:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

It looks good for Sunday Evening! A Lifted Index of -3 for London on Sunday Evening, too! WOW! Posted Image

Edited by William Grimsley
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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

Hmm it does look interesting but it seems too much of a repeat pattern. I think last time the models showed this a week out the system over Iberia never really made it into the UK at all and stayed too far to our S/SW?

 

Definitely worth keeping an eye on though throughout the week.

 

*Secretly crosses fingers and toes*

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

BBC weather for the week ahead showing a thundery plume for late Thursday into Friday with warm humid air and lots of "thundery rain" :)

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

If it comes off, i'll eat Mapantz!

 

Every  thundery episode in June/July was so badly forecasted by the local weather here, just 24 hours out it was thunder this, and lightning that.. in reality, it moved East of here or it didn't develop until it got 50 miles inland.

 

As ^ Chris said, it might possibly stay out to the SW or it may get squeezed East and turn into a Kent clipper as we near the time. I'm keeping my fingers crossed though, i'm still in a storm drought extending back to 2005. Posted Image

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Effectively what we need next is for the models to show stronger upper winds to eject all this energy further up the country to give everyone a dose of the good stuff, rather than another one of those situations where the Channel gets a few flickers of lightning before it all dies away. Still tonnes of time for it all to change! Preferably in our favour...

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wimblettben Rising Star

wimblettben

Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
Posted

After just seeing these charts I am quite suprised and excited to see the possibility of some thundery weather by the end of the week.

 

Problem is though, is that it is a thundery system moving up from France. And we all know what a dissapointment it was the last time this type of situation occoured.Posted Image

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

After just seeing these charts I am quite suprised and excited to see the possibility of some thundery weather by the end of the week.

 

Problem is though, is that it is a thundery system moving up from France. And we all know what a dissapointment it was the last time this type of situation occoured.Posted Image

 

Being September, and thus the SST's are probably at there highest now, the likelihood of thundery activity being killed off by the channel is less likely. However, it is entirely possible for the entire lot to be swept out to our east giving the near continent storms whilst we get naff all. Still nice for a bit of interest after what has been a quiet period for a while now.

Edited by Supacell
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Looking very good for much of the Southern UK for chances of thunder. However, despite favourable SST's at this time of the year, the 'hot cooker' effect over the large French landmass is less stronger now than it is in say July and late June, so that is likely to lead to weaker storms under this synoptic than they would be around much of July and early August even. 

Nonetheless, it could well be the last proper convective event of the summer, so it should be made the most of if it does come off! Even still, storms could well be vicious despite it being September and less diurnal effect from the sun, and upper winds from deep into France and the med is the best direction you could ask for.

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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

Being September, and thus the SST's are probably at there highest now, the likelihood of thundery activity being killed off by the channel is less likely. However, it is entirely possible for the entire lot to be swept out to our east giving the near continent storms whilst we get naff all. Still nice for a bit of interest after what has been a quiet period for a while now.

Ruddy Belgians will nab it all again.

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