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Convective / Storm Discussion - 23rd August onwards 2013

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted (edited)

Now, there's quite a bit of action is starting in the Bay of Biscay (thunderstorms) which is pushing towards SW England. You can also see the altocumulus lines over SW England, too! Posted Image

 

post-15531-0-33399900-1378364279_thumb.j

Edited by William Grimsley
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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted

Yes! Right over me but its gone so, so dark, heavy and extremely thundery now! Wouldn't surprise me tonight to be fair! One of them stray storms that no one forecasts!

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

That's interesting because I can now gauge what part of the sky is above the Isle of Man.
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

BBC Radio forecast from Jay Wynne this morning mentioned possible thunderstorms in the South, GFS says not:

 

Posted Image

 

Sunshine all the way!

 

Posted Image

 

Well until it gets dark

 

Posted Image

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

This looks interesting for Friday Evening! There could be lots of activity from this set up! :D

 

UK CAPE+Lifted Index. Valid: Fri 06/09 18:00.

 

Posted Image

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

ESTOFEX showing if you want storms today, get on a North sea ferry!

 

post-6667-0-20779800-1378366860_thumb.pn

 

Nothing either from the other dedciated UK storm sites for today

 

 

 

 

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Latest models do seem to have shifted todays potential east, which essentially means it misses the uk, although Norfolk still in with a chance overnight. BBC still breaking out a risk of a thunderstorm north of London into EA this evening.

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

It looks like most of the activity will be on Friday Night with only a little bit on Saturday and Sunday before the whole area of thundery weather moves back into France, next week.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Well the warnings of doom are gathering apace which will probably mean tonight and tomorrows rain event will be a damp squib. Forgive the pun. Interesting no amounts being given as yet which is the way I prefer it. Anyway plenty of Radar watching and ears open to listen to the rain on the roof.

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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

Looks like we will get the brunt of this up here in Yorkshire. Not expecting anything convective though

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Interesting that NMM placement of the rain suggests the Met Office need to adjust the Saturday warning. Fridays as well possibly if the NMM is right. For us though once Friday is out of the way it doesn't look too bad.

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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

The LLC almost explodes overnight going from the GFS precip estimates, could be some exceptional rainfall totals across the Pennines because of this and definitely going to be noticeable in terms of temperature variation.

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted (edited)

Now, there is activity starting in the Bay of Biscay with quite a lot of showers/thundery showers moving towards SW England. They are still a long way away so I wont get my hopes up. Tonight, I hope there might be something tonight for SW England.

Edited by William Grimsley
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Differences again in the latest GFS pushing the rain further south once again for Saturday. So we've gone from dry to wet again. Guess we will have to wait until tomorrow to firm up the details.

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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted

Some quite decent clouds around here at the moment and sky is darkening to my NW. Seems to be an active storm breaking out over Norwich atm.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Some quite decent clouds around here at the moment and sky is darkening to my NW. Seems to be an active storm breaking out over Norwich atm.

Can see that from here...Good luck!Posted Image

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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted

Can see that from here...Good luck!Posted Image

Not getting my hopes up but charts do at least show some cape around. Netweather storm risk maps showing some high probabilities for certain parts of EA this evening.

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Norfolk Sheep Seasoned

Norfolk Sheep

Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
Posted

Can confirm rapid development here to my east, travelling north. Some deep booming thunder audible even though it's easily 30 miles away.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

As i expected the north of Norfolk the place to be for an isolated storm this evening, I would not be surprised if there were more isolated storms around Norfolk through the night. Possibly (about 10% risk) for the Wash area and east coast of Lincolnshire too.

 

Tomorrow the attention seems to shift to the SW and South Wales during the afternoon and evening hours and possibly parts of NW England too much later on.

Edited by Supacell
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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Hell of a cell that one over Norwich. 127 sferics now and it's only been going a matter of minutes!

  • Like 2
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Can confirm rapid development here to my east, travelling north. Some deep booming thunder audible even though it's easily 30 miles away.

There appears to be a train of convection, NS...So maybe there's more to come for you - before it all relocates to Lincolnshire!Posted Image 

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Norfolk Sheep Seasoned

Norfolk Sheep

Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
Posted

Hell of a cell that one over Norwich. 127 sferics now and it's only been going a matter of minutes!

Aylsham is in line for a soaking!

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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted

Have a feeling there's not enough moisture in the atmosphere around south EA, even though NetWeather thinks a 72% storm risk.

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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted

As i expected the north of Norfolk the place to be for an isolated storm this evening, I would not be surprised if there were more isolated storms around Norfolk through the night. Possibly (about 10% risk) for the Wash area and east coast of Lincolnshire too.

 

Tomorrow the attention seems to shift to the SW and South Wales during the afternoon and evening hours and possibly parts of NW England too much later on.

Good call from earlier Supacell.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

Hell of a cell that one over Norwich. 127 sferics now and it's only been going a matter of minutes!

 

It has developed in an area of high DLS, helicity and CAPE. It has the capacity to turn severe, although if that happens it may be over the North Sea by that time. I do feel there is more to come though for the lucky few of you that live in Norfolk.

Edited by Supacell
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