Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[March Blizzard]

Well, Spain's weather changes a lot from the north to the south, I know that well

Indeed, Galicia and Andalusia are worlds apart.

[Summer Sun]

Taken from Brian Gaze's buzz page on the weather outlook

 

The key thing again is the persistence of high pressure and this sort of thing would have the potential to bring freezing conditions later in November and through the winter months. It’s quite a fascinating prospect because gut feel suggests before the current run of colder winters ends (perhaps another 5 years?) we could have one to rival 1947 or 1963. Logic suggests the chances of this happening in any one given year are very low, and even during periods when cold winters are more likely mild ones still occur.

 

Full post here - http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx - titled Time to dig out the winter woolies

 

 

[AWD]

Very impressive placement and intensity of cold air for the time of year;

[Summer Sun]

Very impressive placement and intensity of cold air for the time of year;

image.jpg

 

Indeed though from a coldies point of view you need to hope this isn't all arriving too early

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking extremely good. The cold has definitely been placed in the right spot for the favouring of a cold winter. Cold works differently to heat. I find that heat gets shunted out of the way much easier than the cold. Once frigid cold air is in place, it can often be very hard to shift it. 

Scandinavia by the end of this week may well be predominantly white! And we aren't even mid way through October yet.

Logically, the cold over Russia will only build further and further, as the sun is removed further out of the equation and freezing weather will help cool the landmass even quicker.

I have never seen such an abrupt change to the start of the cold as this. Long may it get better and continue further.  

[bobbydog]

Indeed though from a coldies point of view you need to hope this isn't all arriving too early

 

or from a 'mildies' point of view, that this is not the pre-cursor to an unprecedented winter, of epic proportions......

[Ian Brown]

Well I don't want a foot of snow I just want a few snow showers... and i'm saying for us to get that we need the -6c uppers to come down.

At this time of year ? I 'm not sure what past Octobers have brought you but I doubt it is many snow showers or minus 6 uppers, at least not for very long. Edited October 6, 2013 by Ian Brown

[March Blizzard]

Indeed though from a coldies point of view you need to hope this isn't all arriving too early

 

I somewhat agree but even if cold does arrive early it doesn't mean it won't stick around for a long time. Winter cold could arrive in November and not dissipate until next April, or we could get an early cold snap before the mild floodgates open, we just don't know. There are no quotas for mild or cold weather.

[feb1991blizzard]

At this time of year ? I 'm not sure what past Octobers have brought you but I doubt it is many snow showers or minus 6 uppers, at least not to very long.

 

And its a bloody good show he doesn't want a foot of snow either because he is unlikely to get it in January, so he has zero chance of getting it in October, that's the trouble with me, although I am not fussed when, I do want a foot of snow so more often than not, I am going to be disappointed!

[smithyweather]

Snow in October is not rare here. I average 0.5 days

[feb1991blizzard]

Snow in October is not rare here. I average 0.5 days

 

I average 0 days and have done throughout my entire lamposting career apart from 2008.

[cheese]

Snow in October is not rare here. I average 0.5 days

The Met Office do not publish such statistics, so I'm not sure how you would know.

[smithyweather]

Actually its 0.3. But its still not that rare. Like I think it happens at least once every 10 years.

[feb1991blizzard]

Steve Murr now has exactly the same number of like points as posts - whats the chances of that after 10262 posts!!!!

The Met Office do not publish such statistics, so I'm not sure how you would know.

 

They do, im sure they publish days of falling snow and days of lying snow.

[March Blizzard]

The Met Office do not publish such statistics, so I'm not sure how you would know.

 

They provide weather average maps with selectable categories such as temperature, precipitation etc. You could get a good idea from them.

[tight isobar]

OVERALL,regard remains on form. HP,s seem!? To evolve in respect.placement is as) always the ambilicale.However again overview is stable at worse.the nxt two weeks (should) be relevance,...my own rep although biest to extent...is However ever more likely...H,P, evolve showing good signs for the coming...

[cheese]

They provide weather average maps with selectable categories such as temperature, precipitation etc. You could get a good idea from them.

Fair enough, but I don't put all my faith into those maps as they often don't match up with what the station averages are showing.

Edited October 6, 2013 by cheese

[feb1991blizzard]

Look at this for Eastern Europe - a real pasting!!!!

 

 

just above 500 heights with normal surface pressure!!!!

 

 

[SMU]

Steve Murr now has exactly the same number of like points as posts - whats the chances of that after 10262 posts!!!!

 

They do, im sure they publish days of falling snow and days of lying snow.

 

 

Thanks for seeing that - should have screen shot!!

 

theres your October statistic for snow falling - a big fat zero for most.......  max is 4 days for central Scotland ( hills)

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/6190_1km/SnowFall_Average_1961-1990_10.gif

 

S 

[feb1991blizzard]

Thanks for seeing that - should have screen shot!!

 

theres your October statistic for snow falling - a big fat zero for most.......  max is 4 days for central Scotland ( hills)

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/6190_1km/SnowFall_Average_1961-1990_10.gif

 

S 

 

I had to look at that blue patch over Northern Ireland again to make sure it was sea and not a bit of land with 4-6 days of falling snow that smithyweather might have lived in!

[Ian Brown]

I somewhat agree but even if cold does arrive early it doesn't mean it won't stick around for a long time. Winter cold could arrive in November and not dissipate until next April, or we could get an early cold snap before the mild floodgates open, we just don't know. There are no quotas for mild or cold weather.

It would be extraordinary if at some point between now and December we didn't enter a phase of conventional zonality. The cooling at Northern latitudes and powering up of the jet are to be expected and I hope expectations are not falsely raised by blocking occurring now.Although very interesting and doubtless a factor, I think the SSW thread became too much of an obsession in the last couple of winters and we still need a multitude of factors to consider. What happened in the second half of last winter were persistent low heights over Europe and the jet just deflecting far enough South. We did end up with that exceptional March and early April pattern but I Dont think any of the start experts saw that coming.

[feb1991blizzard]

It would be extraordinary if at some point between now and December we didn't enter a phase of conventional zonality. The cooling at Northern latitudes and powering up of the jet are to be expected and I hope expectations are not falsely raised by blocking occurring now.Although very interesting and doubtless a factor, I think the SSW thread became too much of an obsession in the last couple of winters and we still need a multitude of factors to consider. What happened in the second half of last winter were persistent low heights over Europe and the jet just deflecting far enough South. We did end up with that exceptional March and early April pattern but IDont think any of the start experts saw that coming.

 

To be fair though the SSW could have blasted the PV so much that it never recovered, baring in mind that once you have virtually no PV in late feb. its unlikely you are going to get zonality again without some blocking occurring.

[Yarmy]

I had to look at that blue patch over Northern Ireland again to make sure it was sea and not a bit of land with 4-6 days of falling snow that smithyweather might have lived in!

Lough Neagh. To be fair to Smithy the white means less than one day which would not refute the 0.3 average he quoted. But anyway, it is vanishingly rare.

[feb1991blizzard]

Lough Neagh. To be fair to Smithy the white means less than one day which would not refute the 0.3 average he quoted. But anyway, it is vanishingly rare.

 

Sorry Lake, true, to be fair, im sure most of the UK has had one flake fall in October since records began and theres a patch just South of  me in what looks like NW Derbyshire that has 1-2 days, im sure I would have seen a few October snowfalls had I lived here all my life but my only one was in Birmingham of all places, Oct 2008 and it was not only a day of falling snow, it was 2 days of lying snow!

[Relativistic]

Had a day of falling snow here last October. Only lasted a few minutes but I'd never seen snow that early so it was pretty special for me. I suppose settling snow would be the dream for October. Given my location though it is very unlikely.

Edited October 6, 2013 by 22nov10blast