Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Timbo]

when i was a kid, i can remember digging iglos in huge snow drifts ..

the blizzard started on new years eve but i cant remember the year(think it was 78/79?)

anyone have any archive charts or remember the blizzard?

[london-snow]

My thoughts from now until mid november on a totally interested amature pov.

Next two to three weeks is going to largely hp dominated with a s/sw flow with any weak weather fronts only skirting the far n/nw of uk. A very benign spell of weather with no sign of traditional autumnal weather making a appearance.

My boldest feelings and thoughts is that i think we will not experience any autumn weather and skip a season into winter by mid november how cold and snowy if so remains to be seen but i am expecting it to be a average to just below start followed by a below average end to november.

A few factors into my forecast :

- High amount of blocking.

- No sign of the Atlantic firing up.

Another big pointer to me is the amount of snow cover to our e/ne this early on. I have collected data since i found my love of cold winters and what my data shows is that early snow cover to the e/ne which spreads west increases the uk chances for a cold winter by up to 27%. I have some facts and figures in the loft which i will have to dig out as i do every winter. But basically the rule is the more snow cover spreading east to west the better the chances of a cold winter.

Even though we are way off the start of winter the signs of a early and cold start to winter are there to be seen i feel with a non existent autumn.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Any Easterly later than the end of February is pretty much a waste, not only the sea being at its coldest, but the beginning of the diurnal heating of the continent too.

December/January, sometimes Early Feb are the best times to get one as the continent is bitterly cold, and the sea still has that trigger of instability.

 

Yeah, march 11th this year, sea was too cold, and only had a sprinkling, if it had been Dec with warm sea, would have been good like '10

[smithyweather]

When people say straight into winter. Do they mean 2010 style like " 15c one day then 1c the next". Or do they mean an average 6c winter?

[Conor Sherwin]

hello what are the models saying today  cold or mild winter ???

[OllieWeather]

Easterlies are only good for me if there a weather fronts coming in, living in Cardiff the convective snow from the North Sea rarely reaches us

[Eugene]

Cold Easterlies are much more likely mid February onwards than in December/January which are usually stormy, complete waste of time then 

[Eugene]

Most of the winter of 1946/47 would of been a waste of time to some members

[Conor Sherwin]

                                                                   

[Conor Sherwin]

                                                                                as soon as i put this up it updated lol                    

[smithyweather]

Cold Easterlies are much more likely mid February onwards than in December/January which are usually stormy, complete waste of time then

December is usually the coldest month here.....

[Conor Sherwin]

                                                                  is this cold

[Conor Sherwin]

[Gaz1985]

Feb 91 I doubt the sea was warm and also people a bit further east than me got a bigger pasting back in March and some places West of me like Manchester got virtually jack, I got an absolute pasting but not as much as people further into the pennines.

 

Actually this part of Manchester got a foot of snow in February 1991 but places like Eccles/Salford/Bolton etc not had much probably being too far to the west? the Pennines got 2 foot level snow with higher drifts but people in this area had to wait 19 years - January 2010 to see a foot of snow this low down again.

[feb1991blizzard]

                                                                  is this cold

 

 

 

 

 

quite cold, not brutally so but cold enough, definitely Snow in Northern Britain and possible in the Republic of Ireland.

 

 

Not as cold as this though.

 

 

Edited October 5, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

Actually this part of Manchester got a foot of snow in February 1991 but places like Eccles/Salford/Bolton etc not had much probably being too far to the west? the Pennines got 2 foot level snow with higher drifts but people in this area had to wait 19 years - January 2010 to see a foot of snow this low down again.

 

Yes I had the same problem in Salford in 2009, I got 6 inches there though in Jan 10, how much did you get in feb 09?,

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes I had the same problem in Salford in 2009, I got 6 inches there though in Jan 10, how much did you get in feb 09?,

 

I've not had more than 10cm/4 inches in as long as I can remember. Would love to see a big fall.

[feb1991blizzard]

 

 

That's an absolute ripper for that early in the season, maybe some marginality further sout but somewhere could quite easily get pasted from that,

[March Blizzard]

I've not had more than 10cm/4 inches in as long as I can remember. Would love to see a big fall.

You must be desperate for a few more inches down there...in Crewe.

[Gaz1985]

Yes I had the same problem in Salford in 2009, I got 6 inches there though in Jan 10, how much did you get in feb 09?,

 

 

I measured 7 inches so not as bad as January 2010, but it was rather blowy I remember some very slight drifting on my neighbours stairs outside, nothing really serious though.

[feb1991blizzard]

I've not had more than 10cm/4 inches in as long as I can remember. Would love to see a big fall.

 

I thought your biggest fall was much bigger than mine last year, I had about 3 separate falls of 3 or 4 inches, obviously I had bigger drifts and much more in total but didn't you get battered that Friday where it didn't reach us? - that battleground where wales had a red warning.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I thought your biggest fall was much bigger than mine last year, I had about 3 separate falls of 3 or 4 inches, obviously I had bigger drifts and much more in total but didn't you get battered that Friday where it didn't reach us? - that battleground where wales had a red warning.

 

Got 10cm....the largest fall I can remember here. Doesn't help that I'm the lee of the Pennines to the east and the Clwydians to the West. Plus I'm only 55m asl.

Edited October 5, 2013 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

You must be desperate for a few more inches down there...in Crewe.

 

Another couple of inches wouldn't go amiss

[feb1991blizzard]

Got 10cm....the largest fall I can remember here. Doesn't help that I'm the lee of the Pennines to the east and the Clwydians to the West. Plus I'm only 55m asl.

 

Yes, I have massive mountain ranges to the east of me - in fact all around be - im in a goldfish bowl but I am 600ft and further North and East so that does give me a massive advantage.

Another couple of inches wouldn't go amiss

 

Yes - another couple of inches would be a stonker.

[UV-RAY]

Yes, I have massive mountain ranges to the east of me - in fact all around be - im in a goldfish bowl but I am 600ft and further North and East so that does give me a massive advantage. Yes - another couple of inches would be a stonker.

Massive mountain ranges, how far are those Himalayas.