Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[SomeLikeItHot]

Hmm, gotcha. Sorry for the n00b questions guys.

 

Is there a definite way of being to tell which "wins"? Ie, which will dominate, the low pressure, or high pressure? Or is that not how it works?

 

Not at that range. Short term models are good usually out to 5 days, indicative 6-7 days and then its basically all downhill from there. Ensembles and some other tools can givesemi reliable trends out a bit longer . After that well the seasonal models are umm. low confidence. Generally you are recommended to look at the trends in them where the pressure will be higher or lower than normal.

 

As for specifics on particular days you can certainly forget it past 7-8 days. There is a good reason reputable agencies like the Met only give a specific forecast for 5 days  then go to a more descriptive trend past there.

[Dr Forinor]

There is an awful lot to pick up, no disrespect to you but I do urge you to read the Net Wx Guides to get an idea of what the different charts are showing you. If you have any questions I am always happy to try and explain things, and if I am not sure, either give you links on the web or one of the other posters with a better knowledge of that question than I have.

Again not having a go, but try and learn to walk first it will stand you in good stead as the saying goes in the future.

Done. Can you just clarify how to get to these guides please? 

Help appreciated

[johnholmes]

Done. Can you just clarify how to get to these guides please? 

Help appreciated

 

this is the link to all the Guides, just have a look round, anything you are unsure of please ask

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/24-learning-about-weather-and-meteorology/

[cheeky_monkey]

twas a little bit fresh this morning...-4c

[feb1991blizzard]

Check out the CFS 9 month daily 6z run from the 3rd October - the late November and December would at the very least run 2010 close and may even eclipse it.

 

 

And the Last part of Feb and first half of March has a touch of the eighties / 91 about it as well.

 

Edited October 4, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

Blocking on the 12z CFS from the 3rd Oct not as spectacular and technically the people who said it would change are right, this time its shifted to scandi  For Dec after starting in Greenland in MID NOVEMBER with plenty of undercutting going on in DEC

[feb1991blizzard]

A Nationwide tonking.

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Blocking on the 12z CFS from the 3rd Oct not as spectacular and technically the people who said it would change are right, this time its shifted to scandi  For Dec after starting in Greenland in MID NOVEMBER with plenty of undercutting going on in DEC

I think November may well give us an early taste of winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

I think November may well give us an early taste of winter.

 

I haven't made my mind up yet - I was a little pessimistic and thought it might be one of those slow burners like 2011 / 2012 but really not sure what to think yet, I reckon we will have a fair idea by Mid November whether we are likely to get any blocking before xmas or not, I hope your right but only if its not at the expense of a good jAN.

[Dancerwithwings]

Between the 06z ( the chart we was talking about this morning) and the 18z,00z,12z there all different (as expected)

Just shows you how flipsy flopsy the CFS is......

 

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Between the 06z ( the chart we was talking about this morning) and the 18z,00z,12z there all different (as expected)

Just shows you how flipsy flopsy the CFS is......

 

 

 

 

 

 

Similarities between the 3 on the left though - that's actually quite good at the sort of ranges we are talking.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Here is what the CFS was forecasting regularly for Nov back in APRIL

 

 

Heights over Greenland....that was one of the less impressive ones I saved

 

Here is the CFS today

 

 

 

 

Similarities between the 3 on the left though - that's actually quite good at the sort of ranges we are talking.

 

Yep, all show some sort of blocking signature.

[Dancerwithwings]

A Nationwide tonking.

 

When you see this image (Left click...on the chart....wait for the bigger image to appear) then copy and paste to your post.

[feb1991blizzard]

When you see this image (Left click...on the chart....wait for the bigger image to appear) then copy and paste to your post.

 

Why? doesn't it work for you?

[smithyweather]

Here is what the CFS was forecasting regularly for Nov back in APRIL

 

NOV 2013.png

 

Heights over Greenland....that was one of the less impressive ones I saved

 

Here is the CFS today

 

Nov cfs.png

 

 

 

 

Yep, all show some sort of blocking signature.

 

But is it possible to actually be cold in November like subzero highs and snow lasting weeks? I don't know..

[Dancerwithwings]

Similarities between the 3 on the left though - that's actually quite good at the sort of ranges we are talking.

WELL DONE...I was hoping someone would mention it,,,,,, I was thinking that myself that's why i put them three on the the left,

I'm always seeing posts in terms of "don't bother" or  "forget it" (((FI))) and in most cases there right....But sometimes it an't to bad

[Summer Sun]

The Brazilian long range model for October has updated

 

Temperatures for December to February are slightly above average for all but Ireland where its average, in fact a lot of Europe is shown to be above normal this coming winter not just the UK

 

 

Rainfall is average to below average UK wide and again a lot of Europe is shown to be drier than normal

 

Edited October 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Cheshire Freeze]

But is it possible to actually be cold in November like subzero highs and snow lasting weeks? I don't know..

 

Once cold becomes embedded in November it can get colder and colder at the surface. The sun has about the same strength as late Jan/early Feb. A cold enough air source and once the ground cools sufficiently it's entirely possible for a deep cold spell to ensue. This is especially true towards the end of the month (as seen November 2010).

 

This November I think we'll have a shock to the system after the mild weather we've experienced thus far. I suspect a brief spell of unsettled (perhaps even stormy) weather will precede the transition to a much colder regime.

Edited October 4, 2013 by CreweCold

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A Nationwide tonking.

 

That is the best chart I've seen up to now.....oh baby

 

BFTP

The Brazilian long range model for October has updated

 

Temperatures for December to February are slightly above average for all but Ireland where its average, in fact a lot of Europe is shown to be above normal this coming winter not just the UK

 

 

Rainfall is average to below average UK wide and again a lot of Europe is shown to be drier than normal

 

Its got most of the world above average.....

 

BFTP

[cheeky_monkey]

some serious deep cold forecast for siberia etc for the time of year

[BornFromTheVoid]

But is it possible to actually be cold in November like subzero highs and snow lasting weeks? I don't know..

 

Weeks of lying snow are extremely unlikely, especially in the first half of November.

 

You only have to go back to 2010 to see the cold possibilities though. During the last 3 days of the month, there were sub 0C maxima, widespread snow and minima below -10C.

 

Detailed monthly report below...

http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-2010-Nov.pdf

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think November may well give us an early taste of winter.

Aaron

This has been catching my eye. Aug / Sept although PDO is in negative phase it was showing warm anomalies off West coast of USA and Canada. We now see the 'classic' reverse C looking like appearing again and to me this is an encouraging sign, and timing looks good for anticipated 'switch' latter 3rd possibly latter half of month.

To me -ve PDO enhances -ve NAO and jetstream shifted south. I think it will envigorate the jetstream to help shove our block away.

BFTP

Edited October 4, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[feb1991blizzard]

Weeks of lying snow are extremely unlikely, especially in the first half of November.

 

You only have to go back to 2010 to see the cold possibilities though. During the last 3 days of the month, there were sub 0C maxima, widespread snow and minima below -10C.

 

Detailed monthly report below...

http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-2010-Nov.pdf

 

 

And was only a couple of days into December where we were getting max temps of -5c and lows of -15c

[BornFromTheVoid]

Aaron

This has been catching my eye. Aug / Sept although PDO is in negative phase it was showing warm anomalies off West coast of USA and Canada. We now see the 'classic' reverse C looking like appearing again and to me this is an encouraging sign, and timing looks good for anticipated 'switch' latter 3rd possibly latter half of month.

To me -ve PDO enhances -ve NAO and jetstream shifted south. I think it will envigorate the jetstream to help shove our block away.

BFTP

 

The correlation, month on month, between the PDO and NAO is at it's strongest in November, at +0.28 (p<0.05).

[Tamara]

Aaron

This has been catching my eye. Aug / Sept although PDO is in negative phase it was showing warm anomalies off West coast of USA and Canada. We now see the 'classic' reverse C looking like appearing again and to me this is an encouraging sign, and timing looks good for anticipated 'switch' latter 3rd possibly latter half of month.

To me -ve PDO enhances -ve NAO and jetstream shifted south. I think it will envigorate the jetstream to help shove our block away.

BFTP

That type of evolution would mirror autumn 1978. So far this autumn is following that year very closely indeed. The pressure pattern set-up was very similar with a quiet warm autumn courtesy of a persistent high pressure anomaly close by or over the continent, a cold Siberian sector of the arctic with good snow cover build up and albedo -AO signature feedback cycle enabled. As we know, come late November 1978, this feeback cycle showed its first signs of impacting on us with a sudden change from the very mild autumn conditions to the first cold salvo of the winter. Then we know what happened in December 1978

 

Its early days of course, but just for fun, I think many of us would be happy to see something similar. Hence the current pattern can stick around a fair bit longer as far as I am concerned

Edited October 4, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר