Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Cloud 10]

Had a couple of wet snow showers here at the back end of October last year.

 

 

 

An impressive set-up for the time of year.

[Gavin Hannah]

We are only showing what the models are showing, if they are going currently for warm southerly with strong ensemble back, then that's what they are going for. All long rangers back this up too. I've been thinking this would be the route to go down. When I made a prediction for the coming winter I said October would provide the building blocks for a very cold spell in November despite all looking lost with October coming out warmer and drier than average.

That way of thinking is still looking good. I feel annoyed that whilst things over our side of the world are going absolutely to the script that people are ranting and raving about this current spell even though this is one stepping stone to the cold and snow they desperately crave. If the polar vortex set up over Greenland it could be game over for months, look at 2011, quite similar spell we are in at the moment. Difference is that the polar vortex is very very weak and mostly concentrated in the Siberian region. Perfect conditions I would say. Only a matter of time before high pressure wants to push northwards and get the jet going underneath.

I wish sometimes that people would be more patient, it's the beginning of October, not February and in the last chance saloon. The cold will come and I'm confident it will be making an early arrival with respect to the seasons.

 

 

On the same wavelength as you!  I would love for us to have some very pleasant autumnal weather and then come end of Nov, start of Dec, BLAM!  An instant switch to winter wonderland.

[feb1991blizzard]

Had a couple of wet snow showers here at the back end of October last year.

 

archivesnh-2012-10-27-0-0.png

 

 

An impressive set-up for the time of year.

 

Yes a corking looking chart.

[Dancerwithwings]

I posted this a few days ago about Oct 08;

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77189-autumn-2013-thoughts-prospects-and-forecasts/page-40#entry2797131

[smithyweather]

Could someone please explain how this awful warm weather is beneficial to a cold winter for MY AREA not russia?? Thank you.

 

 

I cannot see it suddenly cooling down.

Edited October 3, 2013 by smithyweather

[feb1991blizzard]

Could someone please explain how this awful warm weather is beneficial to a cold winter for MY AREA not russia?? Thank you.

 

 

I cannot see it suddenly cooling down.

 

There is a link between how extensive a snow cover there is in Eastern Europe in October and how quickly this spreads west and blocking patterns  in winter that are favourable to deliver a continental flow, I haven't studied it to any great degree and looking at the chart on the other thread, the link definitely exists but maybe a little tenuous, the experts will put more meat on the bones no doubt, this is one of a number of factors that determines our winter weather however and in my opinion, a more significant factor is the temperature of the stratosphere in about a month - 6 weeks time onwards.

Edited October 3, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Gavin Hannah]

I believe an extensive snow cover over russia/east europe also acts as a feedback mechanism. Raising the chances of a SSW event.

As Feb91 said, there are more knowledgable members here who can expand on this.

[feb1991blizzard]

I believe an extensive snow cover over russia/east europe also acts as a feedback mechanism. Raising the chances of a SSW event.As Feb91 said, there are more knowledgable members here who can expand on this.

 

I wasn't aware of that, maybe that's the reason the link exists then.

[Conor Sherwin]

Yes cloudy and 1c every single day not my idea of fun.

IN the east we hade like 1 inch it lasted for like 2 days then melted then it snowed now and again 

[Gavin Hannah]

Dont quote me on that lol. Chiono is the best person to ask.

[bryan629]

Could someone please explain how this awful warm weather is beneficial to a cold winter for MY AREA not russia?? Thank you.

 

 

I cannot see it suddenly cooling down.

this awful warm weather as you put it also keeps heat locked in the waters around us...so when say -4 to -8 uppers cross over it .... theres a big temperature gradient which makes for a very unstable atmosphere as happened in 2010... so if we get an easterly sourced from russia/siberia region...we end up with a beasterly with razor sharp teeth

 

im afraid for us coldies were just going to have to put up with the short term and pretend its still august

Edited October 3, 2013 by bryan629

[feb1991blizzard]

this awful warm weather as you put it also keeps heat locked in the waters around us...so when say -4 to -8 uppers cross over it .... theres abig temperature gradient which makes for a very unstable atmosphere as happened in 2010... so if we get an easterly sourced from russia/siberia region...we end upwith a beasterly with razor sharp teeth

 

Yes although -4c uppers wont cut it, it makes -8c uppers more likely to cut it when late last season even -12c uppers didn't exactly provide the expected fireworks. -12c uppers in Late Nov or early December would be floodgate blaster with massive convection getting even as far West as Wales, if the high was far enough North and the pressure gradient big enough, this place would be 10 metre drift - mid 80s reunion city!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Could someone please explain how this awful warm weather is beneficial to a cold winter for MY AREA not russia?? Thank you.

 

 

I cannot see it suddenly cooling down.

Simple answer is it isn't, but its also not beneficial too. Thing to keep looking at is the continued non zonal behaviour of the jetstream...now that increases chances of blocking and a jetstream south of Britain enhancing cold chances....but its no guarantee

 

BFTP.

[bryan629]

Yes although -4c uppers wont cut it, it makes -8c uppers more likely to cut it when late last season even -12c uppers didn't exactly provide the expected fireworks. -12c uppers in Late Nov or early December would be floodgate blaster with massive convection getting even as far West as Wales, if the high was far enough North and the pressure gradient big enough, this place would be 10 metre drift - mid 80s reunion city!

totally agree with you with regards to the floodgates of nov/dec but late last season with uppers of -12 , high presure was a little too close and put a lid on the covection .... all that fell was flurries.... if yo remember though in march we were clobbered with frontal snow

[Conor Sherwin]

 LOOKS GOOD TO ME 

[feb1991blizzard]

Simple answer is it isn't, but its also not beneficial too. Thing to keep looking at is the continued non zonal behaviour of the jetstream...now that increases chances of blocking and a jetstream south of Britain enhancing cold chances....but its no guarantee

 

BFTP.

 

Only thing though BLAST about the Jet is you cannot really judge it until Nov, early October isnt always stormy anyway, even when more zonal winters have followed, 88-89 a classic example, -7c and high pressure even in late Oct that year, if the CFS charts for early Nov come off then yes, that's the time to really get excited

totally agree with you with regards to the floodgates of nov/dec but late last season with uppers of -12 , high presure was a little too close and put a lid on the covection .... all that fell was flurries.... if yo remember though in march we were clobbered with frontal snow

 

Yes Late March 5 foot drifts only a mile or so from here - Oldham mountain rescue servive website will still have pictures.

[ZONE 51]

I have got a pattern matching algorithm in my head using this on the GFS model I can let you know if the cold spells going to come off 0:

Edited October 3, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Dr Forinor]

Yes although -4c uppers wont cut it, it makes -8c uppers more likely to cut it when late last season even -12c uppers didn't exactly provide the expected fireworks. -12c uppers in Late Nov or early December would be floodgate blaster with massive convection getting even as far West as Wales, if the high was far enough North and the pressure gradient big enough, this place would be 10 metre drift - mid 80s reunion city!

Oh you tease!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Only thing though BLAST about the Jet is you cannot really judge it until Nov, early October isnt always stormy anyway, even when more zonal winters have followed, 88-89 a classic example, -7c and high pressure even in late Oct that year, if the CFS charts for early Nov come off then yes, that's the time to really get excited

 

Yes Late March 5 foot drifts only a mile or so from here - Oldham mountain rescue servive website will still have pictures.

Yes we can judge the jetstream pattern, its been in this type of phase for a few years now and we are in very different territory to 88/89.  It continues to be split/meridional and south.

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes we can judge the jetstream pattern, its been in this type of phase for a few years now and we are in very different territory to 88/89.  It continues to be split/meridional and south.

 

BFTP

 

To be fair I will give you that one although one exception is 2011-2012.

[smithyweather]

LOOKS GOOD TO ME

Theres even more snow now. That was two days ago.

[ZONE 51]

October has the potential to deliver to some surprise cold and snow. Personally, the idea of HP over us for much of October would lead me to see this as a remote possibility.

 

I mentioned several months back that it's better to get the HP/Euro now (sep-october) as it keeps things cold and snowy in Russia / East Europe. If Cohens' theory pans out, we will reap the rewards in winter. Perhaps another Nov/Dec blast???

Yes from a cold and snow fans point of view we don't want deep low pressures Atlantic systems sweeping the zones that need to be cold, this ultimately mild's up things there (and here) The Jet stream watch is on!

Edited October 3, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Buriedundersnow]

snow cover still making good advances

 

yesterday

 

 

today

 

 

and check this out for early ice advance

 

 

 

[Conor Sherwin]

Theres even more snow now. That was two days ago.

link of new please 

[Conor Sherwin]

snow cover still making good advances

 

yesterday

 

3.gif

 

today

 

4.gif

 

and check this out for early ice advance

 

sea_ice_only.jpg

is the sea ice good or bad news