Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[smithyweather]

See above

[Buriedundersnow]

is the sea ice good or bad news 

 

theres nothing to say if its good or bad but if you notice the two other years we had good early ice advance we had a really deep cold spell during the winter period

[ZONE 51]

For interest here is a BBC weather review for October 2010, remember the warm spell?

 

 

A quieter spell then followed over much of the country, and it turned warm for several days before a northerly flow brought a sharp drop in temperature.

Many places recorded their first frost of the season on the 17th, then on the 20th some snow fell in parts of Scotland, even down to lower levels. In some western areas, unusually low temperatures of around -5 °C were recorded on the 25th.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/uk_reviews/newsid_9151000/9151498.stm - read more here

 

Edited October 3, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[feb1991blizzard]

Check out the CFS 9 month daily 6z run from the 3rd October - the late November and December would at the very least run 2010 close and may even eclipse it.

[Dancerwithwings]

Check out the CFS 9 month daily 6z run from the 3rd October - the late November and December would at the very least run 2010 close and may even eclipse it.

"may even eclipse it".... Bloody right it would with 5-6 weeks of that with many many (ice days )....Can't be bad

But i would say most of Dec well into Jan is best

[bryan629]

Check out the CFS 9 month daily 6z run from the 3rd October - the late November and December would at the very least run 2010 close and may even eclipse it.

run the 850hpa through the whole of december very rare that -8 uppers leave the uk ,with the frequent visit of -12`s .

 

heres my pick of the crop for november...

[Dr Forinor]

run the 850hpa through the whole of december very rare that -8 uppers leave the uk ,with the frequent visit of -12`s .

 

heres my pick of the crop for november...

I'm liking those Nov ones very much!!

 

Can someone just quickly translate the attached thumbnail with the pressures?

Edited October 4, 2013 by Dr Forinor

[bryan629]

I'm liking those Nov ones very much!!

 

Can someone just quickly translate the attached thumbnail with the pressures?

High pressure in the atlantic advecting warm air into greenland..promoting blocking, circulation of air clockwise around the high.. so air sourced from the arctic... low pressure to our east cold air circulating anti-clockwise  cold air sourced from a north east direction. 

Edited October 4, 2013 by bryan629

[Dr Forinor]

High pressure in the atlantic advecting warm air into greenland..promoting blocking, circulation of air clockwise around the high.. so air sourced from the arctic... low pressure to our east cold air circulating anti-clockwise  cold air sourced from a north east direction. 

Thanks for that. How will that then translate into the weather that we will get? Particularly in North East Scot?

[Dancerwithwings]

Thanks for that. How will that then translate into the weather that we will get? Particularly in North East Scot?

And plenty of it

[bryan629]

Thanks for that. How will that then translate into the weather that we will get? Particularly in North East Scot?

Roughly translated it means ` get yer sledge out`

[Jimmyh]

that cfs is truly stunning. One does wonder if there was any correlation, that we had heat in October and by end of November 2010 we had the epic scenario.

is this about to happen again who knows. exciting times tho

[Methuselah]

Roughly translated it means ` get yer sledge out`

So long as you remember to put it back, come the next update...

[MPG]

this awful warm weather as you put it also keeps heat locked in the waters around us...so when say -4 to -8 uppers cross over it .... theres a big temperature gradient which makes for a very unstable atmosphere as happened in 2010... so if we get an easterly sourced from russia/siberia region...we end up with a beasterly with razor sharp teeth

 

im afraid for us coldies were just going to have to put up with the short term and pretend its still august

 

People are forgetting that November 2010 saw record breaking warm weather in the UK.....

[feb1991blizzard]

Mind you you can have a stonking Greenland height rise but sometimes you can still have a trough to the South West and it can sometimes be persistent and that could be a spoiler - I hope not

run the 850hpa through the whole of december very rare that -8 uppers leave the uk ,with the frequent visit of -12`s .

 

heres my pick of the crop for november...

 

my pick is right at the end of December and into January.

[Dr Forinor]

So long as you remember to put it back, come the next update...

Is it likely to change drastically?

[johnholmes]

Is it likely to change drastically?

 

highly likely

[Dr Forinor]

highly likely

Aw shucks. Still a lot to learn then eh!

[Dancerwithwings]

highly likely

But before it does.....You can clearly see the source of all that wintriness

 

Edited October 4, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[Methuselah]

Aw shucks. Still a lot to learn then eh!

Not to worry, DF...When I first joined BBC Snow Watch, in December 2002, all the models and Joe B (no surprise there!) were pointing toward a 'mini Ice Age'...It didn't happen! 

[Dr Forinor]

But before it does.....You can clearly see the source of all that cold air

 

So that's eastern european air coming towards UK, which is good for cold, right?

[Radiating Dendrite]

So that's eastern european air coming towards UK, which is good for cold, right?

 

No the air would likely be coming from Scandinavia.

 

That chart shows pressure anomalies and not temperature - higher than normal pressure over Greenland and lower pressure over Europe.

 

This is a very good set up for the UK.

[Dr Forinor]

Hmm, gotcha. Sorry for the n00b questions guys.

 

Is there a definite way of being to tell which "wins"? Ie, which will dominate, the low pressure, or high pressure? Or is that not how it works?

[Jimmyh]

Not to worry, DF...When I first joined BBC Snow Watch, in December 2002, all the models and Joe B (no surprise there!) were pointing toward a 'mini Ice Age'...It didn't happen! 

Oh Sue i remember the BBC snow watch. got so bad with back biting and gfuqhgfpjhing that if i remember rightly they closed it down!!!!!!!

[johnholmes]

So that's eastern european air coming towards UK, which is good for cold, right?

No the chart you are showing is of the anomalies in heights at 500mb NOT wind directions or temperatures. IF that chart verified then one would expect to see a 500mb ridge where the red is and a 500mb trough where the blue is showing.

 

There is an awful lot to pick up, no disrespect to you but I do urge you to read the Net Wx Guides to get an idea of what the different charts are showing you. If you have any questions I am always happy to try and explain things, and if I am not sure, either give you links on the web or one of the other posters with a better knowledge of that question than I have.

Again not having a go, but try and learn to walk first it will stand you in good stead as the saying goes in the future.

Hmm, gotcha. Sorry for the n00b questions guys.

 

Is there a definite way of being to tell which "wins"? Ie, which will dominate, the low pressure, or high pressure? Or is that not how it works?

 

 

see my last post Dr F-hope that is a help to you?