Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Conor Sherwin]

NO ITS NOT HOLLAND ITS MOSCOW http://www.accuweather.com/en/nl/holland/872371/november-weather/872371?monyr=11/1/2013

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/moscow/294021/october-weather/294021

[Conor Sherwin]

About 2 hours ago - muck until December but some stonking if short lived cold spells all the way through to March interspersed with some muck as well though.

thanks but that dose  not  answer my question   

[feb1991blizzard]

NO ITS NOT HOLLAND ITS MOSCOW http://www.accuweather.com/en/nl/holland/872371/november-weather/872371?monyr=11/1/2013

 

That link may well be but the weerplaaza link is for de blit in Northern Holland.

thanks but that dose  not  answer my question   

 

Next update will have red Dots by the side, should be updated when you get up tomorrow.

[bryan629]

the cfs  has not updated at all today..(nine months).and the cfs ( one month)  goes haywire halfway through as illustrated below

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

the cfs  has not updated at all today..(nine months).and the cfs ( one month)  goes haywire halfway through as illustrated below

 

The 9 monther has, it stuck last night but had recovered its updatability by this morning and has continued to update.

[Buriedundersnow]

thanks but that dose  not  answer my question   

 

it updates roughly the same time as the GFS does I think its 4:30-6:00am 10:30am-12-00pm 4:30-6:00 pm   10:30pm-12:00am remember the clocks go back an hour on the 27th so will need to take those times back an hour.

[bryan629]

The 9 monther has, it stuck last night but had recovered its updatability by this morning and has continued to update.

all i can see i 00z,6z,12z and 18z and run current are for the 1st

[feb1991blizzard]

all i can see i 00z,6z,12z and 18z and run current are for the 1st

 

I think they are always 24 hours behind with seasonal models, the GFS is as it happens but im sure the CFS is a day behind.

[bryan629]

I think they are always 24 hours behind with seasonal models, the GFS is as it happens but im sure the CFS is a day behind.

oh i didnt realise...thanks for that

[Buriedundersnow]

snow cover still making its early advance and ice is still on the up aswell

 

yesterday

 

 

today

 

 

to put into perspective heres the same date 2010

 

 

Iceland looks to be taking an early pasting aswell

Edited October 2, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Conor Sherwin]

That link may well be but the weerplaaza link is for de blit in Northern Holland.

 

Next update will have red Dots by the side, should be updated when you get up tomorrow.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1974&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

is that this model and thanks

[bryan629]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1974&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

is that this model and thanks

yep you got it

just remember its a long range model and will change every single run... makes for good eye candy though at times

[stewfox]

deleted

Edited October 2, 2013 by stewfox

[syed2878]

as i said on 1 of my post this time we could get something like 201-2012 just a fieling i hav nothing scientific. I really hope i'm 100percent wrong then again look at oct 2011 and the winter that folowed was a mild1 for the uk apart from that cold spell during feb 2012.

[ZONE 51]

New snow alert system coming soon for winter 2013-14 by ESS (myself)

DEMO below:

Chart is 2 image animation. The chart would be set so if does not load ,first image would show, this would be the purple warning banner, are do some tests.

 

First frame to show if not playing would be:

How it works is there be yellow, orange(on that on above animation) and red, there is green this be for minor snow lowest alert not sure yet ideas are welcome! the purple would indicate snow as per snow chart colour, it would flash to the appropriate alert color.

The set image for non loading would be the above purple alert image., which would be on one of the 4 alert levels, I might put the level text on all first images when I create them.

 

Just to note a look ahead to later(3rd/more likely 4th week) this month, the cold spell I am expecting still possible, this would be our first real daytime cold air with frost at night, at first mountain snow. What do I expect this winter to bring, just a quick few lines here but are post some more info and data info at some point soon. 2013/14 - a cold winter, 2010 freezing weather started early, in late Nov, I expect it's possible again and see this pattern emerging...

 

 

ES.

Edited October 3, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Delete something went wrong no image on quoted post

Edited October 3, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Mark Neal.]

what do you mean Recently blocked his own account as he got slot of abuse for telling people false information.

Well he suspended his account as he was getting a lot of abuse from followers after they were being told inaccurate weather information. Anyway back on topic. I read another forecast similar to maddens on the internet yesterday, not quite the ice slagoes on the Thames forecast!

snow cover still making its early advance and ice is still on the up aswellyesterdayprvsnow_asiaeurope.giftodaycursnow_asiaeurope2.gifto put into perspective heres the same date 2010ims2010275_asiaeurope.gifIceland looks to be taking an early pasting aswell

We'll doing incredibly well, when you compare it to previous starts. Let's hope it keeps going,! Eurasion Snowcover can play a huge part in us getting cold and snow, just one part of the winter jigsaw!

[Radiating Dendrite]

To be fair if you are stupid enough to believe a young lad then it serves you right.

People can be so gullible - the majority of Internet forecasts are boll@x, including one or two on here made by people with either no professional training or little knowledge.

[bobbydog]

To be fair if you are stupid enough to believe a young lad then it serves you right.People can be so gullible - the majority of Internet forecasts are boll@x, including one or two on here made by people with either no professional training or little knowledge.

 

well i think all the weather during dec/jan/feb will be winter weather.

 

thats because its weather and its winter

 

now that's a 100% accurate forecast....

[feb1991blizzard]

I will have P18 from the 0z GEFS suite please.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I will have P18 from the 0z GEFS suite please.

 

No thanks! I am not a fan of 9C and rain, would prefer the 0perational

[sebastiaan1973]

Look what is back on the de bilt

 

http://www.null/two/ensembles/ ,cannot get this link to work

 

have you spotted it yet.........

 

sneeuwva

 

15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

 

looks like a total white out to me at this stage(bottom right)

 

for newcommers,whatch for the spiking(snow ppn spikes) on this chart come winter.

It's 'sneeuwval' (snowfall in English)

Edited October 3, 2013 by sebastiaan1973

[feb1991blizzard]

No thanks! I am not a fan of 9C and rain, would prefer the 0perational

 

 

9c good for October but anyway scaffel pike would see snow probably and with lows near freezing possible lower down a few wet flakes although not as low as you admittedly.

[Captain Shortwave]

9c good for October but anyway scaffel pike would see snow probably and with lows near freezing possible lower down a few wet flakes although not as low as you admittedly.

To be honest I will take the euro high set up, look at the ECM ensemble mean, there could be snow cover over most of the North-eastern half of Russia in 10 days time, certainly will be cold enough.

[liam300]

Christmas day anybody?

Edited October 3, 2013 by liam300