Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[SomeLikeItHot]

James Madden gets worse in his January forecast he's said

 

 

 

For the newbies here he also forecast a bitter winter last year the coldest in 100 years I think and guess what it was only 0.4°C below the 1981-2010 average

 

Don't disagree with your comments on Madden, but last year was 0.7 below 81-10 average. (0.3 below the 61-90 average)

[Conor Sherwin]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1974&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

what times is that model updated at 

[damianslaw]

Any truth in the chance of a cold winter being increased by a warm dry October? The outlook promises plenty of warm dry weather for October bar the next 2-3 days..

 

Recent dry Octobers 2009, 2010 were followed by cold winters. Oct 1995 was also dry and warm. October 2005 warmest on record was dry as well but followed by a near average winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

CFS not updating this evening.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Any truth in the chance of a cold winter being increased by a warm dry October? The outlook promises plenty of warm dry weather for October bar the next 2-3 days..

 

Recent dry Octobers 2009, 2010 were followed by cold winters. Oct 1995 was also dry and warm. October 2005 warmest on record was dry as well but followed by a near average winter.

 

But 0ct '11 didnt really, was 28C on first 3 days

[Conor Sherwin]

For those that haven't read it....Hmmmm

 

BFTP

ha he is at it again he thinks we live in north CANADA 

[Yarmy]

Any truth in the chance of a cold winter being increased by a warm dry October? The outlook promises plenty of warm dry weather for October bar the next 2-3 days.. Recent dry Octobers 2009, 2010 were followed by cold winters. Oct 1995 was also dry and warm. October 2005 warmest on record was dry as well but followed by a near average winter.

1978, 1985Don't think there's any real correlation though.

[joggs]

James Madden and big Joe bastardi,i just wish they'd be right for once lol. Although to big joes credit,hes improving lol.

[Dancerwithwings]

It was colder than that here during December.

The 19th Dec 2010 was the coldest here for as long as i can remember ..... Birmingham (99 m)  -16.0 °C and Pershore (31 m) got down to -20.0 °C.

But i'm sure there was (unofficially) places that were lower And we only had uppers of -8 !!!

 

 

 But all this talk of (James Madden) and very very low minmina is going to far.

[Conor Sherwin]

It was colder than that here during December.

IT WAS -23 IN PARTS OF N IRE 

[smithyweather]

really where was that?

[Dancerwithwings]

IT WAS -23 IN PARTS OF N IRE 

On the 20th Dec 2010 in N IRE all i could find was these;

 

Ballykelly (5 m)  -11.0 °CBallypatrick Fst (156 m)  -3.0 °CBelfast/Aldergrove AP (68 m)  -12.0 °CCastlederg (50 m)  -18.0 °CGlenanne (160 m)  -10.0 °CLough Fea (227 m)  -13.0 °CPortglenone (65 m)  -10.0 °CSt Angelo (47 m)  -13.0 °C

 

Do you any info on -23 ?

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Well it reached -18c here at my location in December 2010 on the last night of the cold spell. It is my opinion that if the cold spell had've continued, each night would have got progressively colder and I think temps such as -25c would have been quite common over time.

Got to agree with you there. That cold just sat there completely still for days on the runup to Christmas Day. Rural Shropshire where I was for Christmas hit -18C and if it had extended into Jan, some temperature records would have been beaten during what is our coldest month.

[cheshire snow]

The heartache of March 2013 has taught me never to take a forecast as gospel

The regional and national forecast has my area down for 25cm of snow,even had us under an

orange warning...I remember watching the forecast for days before the event thinking it was to be

good to be true,but true to there word the snow began and the timing was bang on as well,the snow was light and

patchy and remained that way for the whole event,barely a covering however 10 miles down the road reports and

pictures were coming in of over 1ft of snow

I Did not believe until i went out in the car and sure enough the reports were correct,some places were cut off

what caused this was a Rain shadow that had formed some were over Greater Manchester

totally gutted

Certainly wont get caught out like that again,there again i probably will LOL

 

C.S

[smithyweather]

On the 20th Dec 2010 in N IRE all i could find was these;Ballykelly (5 m) -11.0 °CBallypatrick Fst (156 m) -3.0 °CBelfast/Aldergrove AP (68 m) -12.0 °CCastlederg (50 m) -18.0 °CGlenanne (160 m) -10.0 °CLough Fea (227 m) -13.0 °CPortglenone (65 m) -10.0 °CSt Angelo (47 m) -13.0 °CDo you any info on -23 ?

Ballykelly reahced -13c and st angelo -17c i think.

Got to agree with you there. That cold just sat there completely still for days on the runup to Christmas Day. Rural Shropshire where I was for Christmas hit -18C and if it had extended into Jan, some temperature records would have been beaten during what is our coldest month.

Agree here I think I could've reached -25c if it had've continued for another 10 days or so. The problem in british isles is every time we get near -20 or -30c the cold ends.

[Buriedundersnow]

Oh don't say that, I'm hooked to enough stuff already!

 

welcome DR FORINOR like Lorenzo said the Scottish thread will be getting busy soon and will be jumping if we get any cold weather I just joined last year and found everyone in the Scottish thread to be very warm and welcoming and I am sure they will be exactly the same with you.

 

plus its always good to have another member join the scots thread its the best thread on here

[Dr Forinor]

welcome DR FORINOR like Lorenzo said the Scottish thread will be getting busy soon and will be jumping if we get any cold weather I just joined last year and found everyone in the Scottish thread to be very warm and welcoming and I am sure they will be exactly the same with you.

plus its always good to have another member join the scots thread its the best thread on here

Thank you for the warm welcome.

I'm looking forward to the exciting times ahead. I always end up getting jealous when I don't get as much snow as other places.

[Mark Neal.]

We reached -14c here in December 2010. Brrr

[Dancerwithwings]

Ballykelly reahced -13c and st angelo -17c i think.

Found this from the Met O,

 

The spell from 18 to 24 December was exceptional and saw daytime maximum temperatures below -5 °C and night-time minimum temperatures on several nights between -15 °C and -18.7 °C,

A new Northern Ireland record minimum. Subsequently, water supplies in Northern Ireland were very badly affected due to frozen / burst pipes.

 

And the coldest place was Castlederg (County Tyrone) -18.7 °C* on the 24th December.

[Buriedundersnow]

Thank you for the warm welcome.I'm looking forward to the exciting times ahead. I always end up getting jealous when I don't get as much snow as other places.

 

join the team I never hardly see anything here in Falkirk we seem to have a snow curse here lol

[Dr Forinor]

join the team I never hardly see anything here in Falkirk we seem to have a snow curse here lol

Ah yeh, Falkirk doesn't normally get a huge amount of snow. I do feel for you.

[Downburst]

The really interesting thing about our winters are how mild they are, typically only 10 days of air frost a year on the coast, and one day of below 0 c days a year on average in Ireland for instance. Reading Maddens forecast confirms to me he is not a well man.

[Conor Sherwin]

On the 20th Dec 2010 in N IRE all i could find was these;

 

Ballykelly (5 m)  -11.0 °CBallypatrick Fst (156 m)  -3.0 °CBelfast/Aldergrove AP (68 m)  -12.0 °CCastlederg (50 m)  -18.0 °CGlenanne (160 m)  -10.0 °CLough Fea (227 m)  -13.0 °CPortglenone (65 m)  -10.0 °CSt Angelo (47 m)  -13.0 °C

 

Do you any info on -23 ?

monaghan dont no were but my dad said it -23 on his thermometer and on his van 

[smithyweather]

10 air frost! Dear god

[Cheshire Freeze]

The heartache of March 2013 has taught me never to take a forecast as gospel

The regional and national forecast has my area down for 25cm of snow,even had us under an

orange warning...I remember watching the forecast for days before the event thinking it was to be

good to be true,but true to there word the snow began and the timing was bang on as well,the snow was light and

patchy and remained that way for the whole event,barely a covering however 10 miles down the road reports and

pictures were coming in of over 1ft of snow

I Did not believe until i went out in the car and sure enough the reports were correct,some places were cut off

what caused this was a Rain shadow that had formed some were over Greater Manchester

totally gutted

Certainly wont get caught out like that again,there again i probably will LOL

 

C.S

 

Oh dear don't remind me of that fail. Every model was going for that rain (snow) shadow but I chose not to believe it. Turns out they were spot on.