Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Conor Sherwin]

Huh I thought Northern Ireland got buried in snow in March?

it did a foot or so

[bryan629]

CFS 9 month 29th sept 18z run a cracker with plenty of undercutting going on, I wont post the charts anymore because people get hacked off as they change.

Nothing wrong with posting charts like these at all, your right they do change all the time on the cfs ..but it doesnt hurt to look at the possibilities or trends for that matter....and talking of trends the cfs has for ages now shown loads of cold shots over the comming winter and as you rightly say `slider` lows are in abundance.... which strongly suggests a large block to our N. East.

So keep up your posts and dont let the hacked off people bother you, each to their own.

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

If you want to post charts that do not change save it to your computer and then upload the saved jpeg image.

[feb1991blizzard]

Nothing wrong with posting charts like these at all, your right they do change all the time on the cfs ..but it doesnt hurt to look at the possibilities or trends for that matter....and talking of trends the cfs has for ages now shown loads of cold shots over the comming winter and as you rightly say `slider` lows are in abundance.... which strongly suggests a large block to our N. East.

So keep up your posts and dont let the hacked off people bother you, each to their own.

 

cfs1.pngcfs2.pngcfs3.pngcfs4.png

 

Yes they did flip back to zonal garbage throughout winter for a good while but the last few runs have shown more blocking, I don't think people get hacked off by the actual charts but I don't like saving anything to my computer as its already slow as anything and so when I post they change and I can post a ripper of a frame one minute but if someone looks 10 mins later it has turned into a Euro so they think 'what is he on about?'

[Yarmy]

Yes they did flip back to zonal garbage throughout winter for a good while but the last few runs have shown more blocking, I don't think people get hacked off by the actual charts but I don't like saving anything to my computer as its already slow as anything and so when I post they change and I can post a ripper of a frame one minute but if someone looks 10 mins later it has turned into a Euro so they think 'what is he on about?'

Saving a png image to your computer is not going to slow it down.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 or 4 CONSECUTIVE runs now showing this sort of scenario throughout winter

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Saving a png image to your computer is not going to slow it down.

 

it clutters it though.

3 or 4 CONSECUTIVE runs now showing this sort of scenario throughout winter

 

Stunner.png

 

I quite like that sort of scenario.

[Yarmy]

it clutters it though.

Just delete it as soon as you've uploaded it.

[andy989]

Whilst looking at pressure anomaly trends is one way of looking at what the coming months MAY bring, I'll be keeping my eye on the polar vortex too. Hoping that it doesn't get to full strength. Here's an interesting one I found, it lists three reasons why we should expect a -AO this winter.His theory on low sunspot activity equates to a weaker jet stream and polar vortex certainly seems in keeping with the current state of things.    http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/3-reasons-why-arctic-oscillation-will.html 

Edited September 30, 2013 by andy989

[feb1991blizzard]

Just delete it as soon as you've uploaded it.

 

 I am not completely computer literate and haven't the time to start deleting stuff, anyway there was a way to post last winter without changing but it doesn't work or I cant remember properly.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

The weather has switched dramatically in 2013 as we all remember well. After the coldest spring for 50 years we hoped for another 1975/83 (hot summer following cold spring) and got it!

This weather pattern is going to break at some point and I hope it is November. All the signs are there.

Out of interest does anyone know when a very cold winter followed a very mild autumn?

[smithyweather]

3 or 4 CONSECUTIVE runs now showing this sort of scenario throughout winterStunner.png

And I suppose this updates everyday does it? To be honest I follow the jamstec as it seems to be pretty reliable.

[Dancerwithwings]

it clutters it though.

Theres an eaiser way that does not clutter and takes very little effort

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-61#entry2795993

[smithyweather]

Double post.

The weather has switched dramatically in 2013 as we all remember well. After the coldest spring for 50 years we hoped for another 1975/83 (hot summer following cold spring) and got it!This weather pattern is going to break at some point and I hope it is November. All the signs are there.Out of interest does anyone know when a very cold winter followed a very mild autumn?

Breaking in what way? Edited September 30, 2013 by smithyweather

[feb1991blizzard]

Theres an eaiser way that does not clutter and takes very little effort

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-61#entry2795993

 

 

Very decent, I will try it if I remember next time, a little bit time consuming if your posting a load of charts but I will give it a go.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

As in change. The same way the jet suddenly headed north at the beginning of July this year. It was a big pattern change, bringing the first hot weather for 10 months +

[feb1991blizzard]

As in change. The same way the jet suddenly headed north at the beginning of July this year. It was a big pattern change, bringing the first hot weather for 10 months +

 

It was the first hot weather here since Oct 11!!, I hate even warm weather as it feels hot to me but even I didn't think there was any real real heat in the 2012 summer.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Out of interest does anyone know when a very cold winter followed a very mild autumn?

 

Oct 1985 is a classic 'indian summer'.  Then we had the mighty Feb 86.  But we are in different territory compared to then re PDO, sunspots  etc 

 

BFTP

[Tony27]

blimey, 71 pages already and its still a month before i get interested in winter

[syed2878]

going back to w2010-2011 the only exceptional cold month was of course dec and rest of that winter was nothing to sing about.

[AWD]

CFS v2 back into the trend of northern blocking this winter now?

[Gavin Hannah]

This forum needs a trend tally to keep track of how many runs favour blocking and how many favour mobile patterns.

Id put my money on 50 - 50 lol.

[Summer Sun]

If CFS is correct we could be in for a rather dry and cool winter

 

 

 

CFS has gone wrong this morning as it thinks we have March twice next year and February won't exist

 

This is February I assure you and not March as it says

 

 

The proper March is warmer just so you know the above is February

 

[snowking]

The best way to view the CFS (if thats your cup of tea), as with any long-range model, is averaged over the space of lots of days. It essentially then becomes a super-ensemble.

 

Net-Weather I believe do this in their weekly updates.

 

The latest 500mb Anomalies over the Arctic, averaged over:

 

3 Days -

 

 

7 Days -

 

 

30 Days -

 

 

The overwhelming theme of the last 5 winters of increased height anomalies continues to shine through when viewed like this, and indeed in recent days the CFS has been really rather keen on much higher than usual heights across Greenland for December and February - risk with the location shown for February of a more West-Based Negative NAO signature, but of course at this stage all of that sort of talk is mere speculation.

 

The three winter months combined, averaged over 30 days give this:

 

 

So once again, the general theme emanating from the CFS is for higher than usual heights to be in place across the Arctic through the winter months once again

 

SK

[Dr Forinor]

New to this forum, as you can probably quite quickly figure out. Been lurking in this thread since a few days now.

 

I'm glad to know there are others out there that love the snow as much as I do, I thought I was the only weird one.

 

I have absolutely no idea how to read these graphs you guys put up but I have been reading up on them and hope to learn from you guys too. 

 

 

My hopes: Snow, snow, snow and more snow!!! Hate the rain, really.