Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Summer Sun]

why gavin? that just means colder. the pressure anomaly charts are going for HP over greenland

 

anyway, for those on a wind-up or whatever, what anyone "thinks" at this stage is irrelevant

 

A while back I posted these charts and was told the oranges were good over Greenland as it was likely to indicate higher pressure over there so warmer temps meaning colder weather would be more likely in the UK

[Radiating Dendrite]

Have you actually posted any charts showing the opposite in the last few weeks Gavin? There have been just as many showing cold...... the usual mix.

You do come across as a bit of a WUM I am afraid to say.

[bobbydog]

A while back I posted these charts and was told the oranges were good over Greenland as it was likely to indicate higher pressure over there so warmer temps meaning colder weather would be more likely in the UK

 

high pressure can bring very cold weather as well gavin. you should know that by now!

[Summer Sun]

Have you actually posted any charts showing the opposite in the last few weeks Gavin? There have been just as many showing cold...... the usual mix.You do come across as a bit of a WUM I am afraid to say.

 

I was told not to post CFS charts daily as they flip and flop constantly so if they show something less cold when I post then there isn't much I can do about it

 

If you go back several pages I posted the Jamstec model for winter which is currently showing a cooler than average winter

[Captain Shortwave]

Either way with regards to the second half of the coming winter. I am going to be bullish and call a significant cold spell during November. It's just a feeling, and also that it might come as a serious shock to the system considering I think October will be unseasonably warm.

[Summer Sun]

high pressure can bring very cold weather as well gavin. you should know that by now!

 

Yep It can I know 

 

This month the Beijing Climate Center model is showing a mild wet winter and there is nothing me, you or anyone else can do about it other than wait till late next week or into the week after before the first October updates come in from the met office, Jamstec and some of the other lesser used models on here update from Russia and Brazil

[Conor Sherwin]

                                                                 is this cold and windy                

[AWD]

It doesn't matter what any of the seasonal models show as there is a very reasonable chance that none of them will be right anyway!

is this cold and windy

Mild, south westerly Atlantic based low there mate.

[Captain Shortwave]

                                                                 is this cold and windy                

It would certainly feel cold and unpleasant, but actual temperatures would be at or just below normal (5-8C)

[EML Network]

Winter 11/12 was hardly cold, and winter 08/09 and 10/11 ended up only just a little below average, indeed the second half of winter 10/11 was notably very mild.

 

I'm not sure about the logic we are due a mild winter.. mother nature doesn't work like that. Apart from winter 09/10 which was cold throughout after albeit a shortlived mild start in December, all our winters since 08/09 have seen notable lengthy mild spells at some point as follows:

 

Period leading up to christmas 08 was very mild and the second half of Feb 09.

Second half of winter 10/11 on the whole very mild - but we tend to forget this fact due to the exceptional cold December.

A wedge of very mild weather from just before christmas 11 through until late January 12, mild conditions quickly returned in the second half of Feb 12.

A long mild wedge mid Dec - mid Jan winter 12/13 - again quickly forgotton it seems, christmas and new year was exceptionally mild.

 

We tend to only remember the colder weather.

 

I remember thinking we were long due a cold winter between 97/98 and 08/09 - bar a couple of near average ones in 00/01, and 05/06 we had to wait a long 11 years for one - 12 if you skip winter 08/09.

 

OK OK...Gordon Bennett. 

 

Perhaps the past 5 or 6 winters were not statistically cold, but they were a damn sight cooler than the 10 that preceded them and had way more snow events up and down the length of the UK, hence they stick out in the memory for the vast majority. 

 

And Nature has and always will work in cycles , how anyone can argue other wise is beyond me.

 

The same is true with the weather, it's a matter of logic. 

 

So yes we are over due a milder winter than we have seen for a while and the problem with a lot of people who (Like me) love the cold, is that they tend to ignore all the data that supposes or indicates a mild Winter may be on the cards and they will look for any scrap of evidence that suggests otherwise. 

 

In essence they are blinkered , now I am in no way saying this is the case with you Damien or anyone else that left a comment on my original post, it's just an observation. 

 

Will we see a cold Winter 2013/2014 ?? Personally  I don't think so..even more so by your own standard of what you consider a ''Cold Winter'' . 

 

I'll be a happy man if proven wrong though, I am about as hardened a  'coldy' as it is possible to get !!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Have you actually posted any charts showing the opposite in the last few weeks Gavin? There have been just as many showing cold...... the usual mix.You do come across as a bit of a WUM I am afraid to say.

 

Never guess Gaz1985? says on mine, this post is hidden because you have chosen to ignore posts by Gaz1985 View it anyway?

[UV-RAY]

I think this is silly calling someone who prefers mild to cold for posting milder options being shown, everyone is entitled to their own preferences and if any model run shows that than what is wrong in posting that?

[Radiating Dendrite]

But some posts are a little bit more provocative, this is true of both mild and cold lovers. Some individuals do seem to look for a reaction - anyway lets leave it there

[Ian Brown]

Disappointed to see the BBC talking about 'mild' this week rather than 'warm'. For me, mild should be for November onwards.

Anyway, obviously early days for looking at winter prospects but I feel that we could see northerlies and Northern blocking in November and December.

[UV-RAY]

Disappointed to see the BBC talking about 'mild' this week rather than 'warm'. For me, mild should be for November onwards.Anyway, obviously early days for looking at winter prospects but I feel that we could see northerlies and Northern blocking in November and December.

Agree, I can never understand the term mild for late September/ early October, it's definitely on the warm side for the time of year.

[Relativistic]

As Feb1991 would put it, I'm hoping for an absolute stonker. Even if the Autumn is mild overall, which, looking ahead to October, looks like it could be likely, at least it would lead to greater convection should an absolute behemoth set-up materialise. One thing I would also love to see this Winter would be a white bonfire night.

[Ian Brown]

As Feb1991 would put it, I'm hoping for an absolute stonker. Even if the Autumn is mild overall, which, looking ahead to October, looks like it could be likely, at least it would lead to greater convection should an absolute behemoth set-up materialise. One thing I would also love to see this Winter would be a white bonfire night.

That would be rare, and although we saw snow at the end of October a few years back, I'm struggling to remember any other snowfalls before Bonfire night in my lifetime, though those in Scotland would have seen a few.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

As Feb1991 would put it, I'm hoping for an absolute stonker. Even if the Autumn is mild overall, which, looking ahead to October, looks like it could be likely, at least it would lead to greater convection should an absolute behemoth set-up materialise. One thing I would also love to see this Winter would be a white bonfire night.

 

near enough impossible white bonfire night in your location, and mine, Ian Brown's location also unlikely (although better elevation) really do need to be 300m oop norf, although in 1980 there was 2 inches of snow at Jersey on 6th Nov, but probably only time its happened

Edited September 29, 2013 by IrememberAtlantic252

[johnholmes]

Disappointed to see the BBC talking about 'mild' this week rather than 'warm'. For me, mild should be for November onwards.Anyway, obviously early days for looking at winter prospects but I feel that we could see northerlies and Northern blocking in November and December.

 

looking in my'bible' from days at Weather Centres the term 'Mild' etc was only used mid Nov-mid March

[stewfox]

OK OK...Gordon Bennett. 

 

Perhaps the past 5 or 6 winters were not statistically cold, but they were a damn sight cooler than the 10 that preceded them and had way more snow events up and down the length of the UK, hence they stick out in the memory for the vast majority. 

 

 

In essence they are blinkered , now I am in no way saying this is the case with you Damien or anyone else that left a comment on my original post, it's just an observation. 

 

Will we see a cold Winter 2013/2014 ?? Personally  I don't think so..even more so by your own standard of what you consider a ''Cold Winter'' . 

 

I'll be a happy man if proven wrong though, I am about as hardened a  'coldy' as it is possible to get !!

 

If you looked at my post which followed yours when you made this point before we are not 'over due a mild winter'

 

If you look the last 350 winters (CET series) your comments don't stack up

 

Whether we get a mild winter of course is another matter and a 'cold winter' is usually measured by temperature a snowy winter by snow etc.

[DR(S)NO]

Yep It can I know  This month the Beijing Climate Center model is showing a mild wet winter and there is nothing me, you or anyone else can do about it other than wait till late next week or into the week after before the first October updates come in from the met office, Jamstec and some of the other lesser used models on here update from Russia and Brazil

Ach well.....if only there were models that ACCURATELY tell us what the weather will be like this winter.No matter what any model says right now,everything can..and will change.And thats one thing we can accurately predict!!

[Relativistic]

near enough impossible white bonfire night in your location, and mine, Ian Brown's location also unlikely (although better elevation) really do need to be 300m oop norf, although in 1980 there was 2 inches of snow at Jersey on 6th Nov, but probably only time its happened

A shame that it's so unlikely. Earliest lying snow I can remember was 30th November 2010. Pretty pathetic really in comparison to other parts.

[mcweather]

That would be rare, and although we saw snow at the end of October a few years back, I'm strug

gling to remember any other snowfalls before Bonfire night in my lifetime, though those in Scotland would have seen a few.

 

Hi Ian bonfire night 1980 was white in some places here in the south and the channel islands.

 

[bobbydog]

it seems that some people are forgetting (and i'm not sure why, as its something that all the more experienced members of the forum should well know by now) that computer models take their information from weather patterns we are experiencing now and from predictions of a multitude of factors - all of which are subject to error or a change from the current prediction. they then extrapolate this data to produce forecasts from short range to long range. the further out they go, the more margin there is for error. also, they cannot take into account theories such as Cohens when producing these forecasts.

therefore, whether you are a "coldie" or a "mildie" the charts we see now will be very different to the ones you see in one or two months time, or even a weeks time!

[Conor Sherwin]

new update gose for NE WINDS WITH A BLOCKING