Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Mark Neal.]

new update gose for NE WINDS WITH A BLOCKING

Got a picture? Worth noting again to you and others not being nasty but these charts will chop and change as you will learn. All interesting to follow but we will soon see what the weather will actually do!

[MR EXTREMES]

id be very reluctant to call this winter cold ive certainly being keeping a close eye on developments for this winter and im a little worried on setups on high heights right now although early days very Bartlett looking heights continues.

 

although alantic hurricaine season seem very very slow I just think any cold could be homegrown  type of cold.

 

lets hope im wrong.

[Mark Neal.]

Still think best to give it another few weeks at least before looking at long range signals . No confidence in a mild./ Nor cold winter at moment.

[Conor Sherwin]

                                                                  is this north or south winds 

[bobbydog]

                                                                  is this north or south winds 

 

north- wind direction is anti-clockwise in low pressure systems. that would be cold but preceded by wet and windy weather.

[Captain Shortwave]

id be very reluctant to call this winter cold ive certainly being keeping a close eye on developments for this winter and im a little worried on setups on high heights right now although early days very Bartlett looking heights continues.

 

although alantic hurricaine season seem very very slow I just think any cold could be homegrown  type of cold.

 

lets hope im wrong.

The monthly outputs from the CFS/JMA/Korean models will be starting to show the signs for November soon, all I can say is look out for Arctic blocking to appear, probably to our North east at first but maybe to our north west as well.

Also I don't think October will be as Bartlett(y) as it first appears. I think a rinse and repeat of our current pattern is likely with heights more East over Germany and Scandinavia rather than to our South East. Gives room for the high to move northwards if the jet and cold over Russia want to undercut the high. 

Just a gut feeling but whilst the models chop and change over the start of 2014, I think the end of this year might deliver the goods, especially November.

Excellent the netweather long ranger is backing precisely this.

Edited September 29, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Conor Sherwin]

north- wind direction is anti-clockwise in low pressure systems. that would be cold but preceded by wet and windy weather.

how do you no if it is clock wise or not 

                                                                 so this is a sharp cutting east wind and wet 

[Cheshire Freeze]

new update gose for NE WINDS WITH A BLOCKING 

 

Nice update. All 3 winter months showing a potential -NAO once again

 

DECEMBER

 

 

JANUARY

 

 

FEBRUARY

 

how do you no if it is clock wise or not 

                                                                 so this is a sharp cutting east wind and wet 

 

That's a cold easterly wind with a modest pressure rise around Iceland and potential frontal snow. You can see an LP centre over N France (denoted by low geopotential heights and thicknesses) - winds flow anti clockwise around LP so thus we have an easterly flow shown across the UK.

Edited September 29, 2013 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

Netweathers long range forecast has been updated and covers December

 

Winter

 

December

 

The pattern of high pressure to the north of the UK continues into Winter - although obviously at this range there is currently significant uncertainty over the forecast. At the present time, the overall forecast for December is for a drier than average month with temperatures near to, or colder than average.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

 

*Full Winter Forecast Issued Late November*

Edited September 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[bobbydog]

how do you no if it is clock wise or not 

                                                                 so this is a sharp cutting east wind and wet 

 

 

look at the isobars - lower numbers in the middle - low pressure. wind always goes anti-clockwise in LP systems and clockwise in high pressure systems.

 

that chart would be very cold and probably very snowy (depending on a few more factors of course)

 

edit- you beat me to it CC!

Edited September 29, 2013 by bobbydog

[feb1991blizzard]

how do you no if it is clock wise or not 

                                                                 so this is a sharp cutting east wind and wet 

 

 

Any precipitation would be snow because of cold upper profile (low heights (colour code)) and because of the strong surface pressure gradient (isobars) winds would be very strong accentuating the cold feeling (windchill), not the coldest chart ive ever seen and far from it but easily cold enough for snow and would feel brutal.

[feb1991blizzard]

The higher the Surface pressure (isobars), the higher heights (colours) you can get away with and still be snow falling, however, the problem is, the higher the surface pressure is then the less likely anything is to be falling from the sky, a rather simplistic way of looking at it and John Holmes will probably tell me off!!! but generally I would say think anything higher than 1030 SLP and virtually no chance of anything sustained or heavy falling from the sky in this country in winter.

Edited September 29, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

As Feb1991 would put it, I'm hoping for an absolute stonker. Even if the Autumn is mild overall, which, looking ahead to October, looks like it could be likely, at least it would lead to greater convection should an absolute behemoth set-up materialise. One thing I would also love to see this Winter would be a white bonfire night.

 

Yes, I do use variety in my wording though, sometimes I say corker or rasper, always have a bit of variety for entertainment value!

[Conor Sherwin]

Nice update. All 3 winter months showing a potential -NAO once again

 

DECEMBER

 

Dec Neg NAO.png

 

JANUARY

 

Jan Neg NAO.png

 

FEBRUARY

 

Feb Neg NAO.png

 

That's a cold easterly wind with a modest pressure rise around Iceland and potential frontal snow. You can see an LP centre over N France (denoted by low geopotential heights and thicknesses) - winds flow anti clockwise around LP so thus we have an easterly flow shown across the UK.

how can the north be hotter than the south 

[Cheshire Freeze]

how can the north be hotter than the south 

 

Those colours aren't showing temperatures, they're showing deviation (anomaly) from the average sea level pressure for the time of year. The red colour denotes higher than average pressure and the blue denotes lower than average pressure. Those charts show potential N blocking- i.e HP to N and low pressure to S.

[Mark Neal.]

how can the north be hotter than the south

That's height anomalies. The brighter red denotes higher pressure. Compared to average I believe. And the blue denotes lower than average with low pressure.

[feb1991blizzard]

how can the north be hotter than the south 

 

Those charts show pressure not temperature so it is not necessarily showing the North warmer than South but anyway it still could be, in relation to the globe, these islands are very small, you can still have the south colder than the North.

[Conor Sherwin]

what times do they update at the models 

[Dancerwithwings]

Conor sherwin...This a very good example...... HP over scandinavia and LP over the Mediterranean you can see clockwise motion to north and anticlockwise motion to the south

and the arrows show wind direction, So you can clearly see this now ....Hope this helps.

 

Absolute stonker of a chart

 

 

Edited September 29, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[Mark Neal.]

what times do they update at the models

Model output update times can be found here- http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72242-model-output-update-times/#entry2213708

[syed2878]

1thing though guys we may get alot of blocking it doesn't mean cold we could easyley end up on the wrong side of that blocking wich will most likely give us the mild crap that lot of us detest over winter. I have a fieling this winter could be like 11-12, as i said it's just a fieling and beleave me its not a plecent fieling. Although lot of lrf's r going for cold.

[ZONE 51]

Have to show this, thread was created on 1st Sept 2013...

 

 

109,934 views -              at the time of my post(about)

Edited September 30, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Interesting. Must say that any added hurricanes or storms would change things and that in turn would change the short-medium models outlook if they develop in the Atlantic, but not as much affecting the long-range data.

(Images are 2012)

Image here one in my collection( I keep some) this is GFS indicating cold and snow with a North sea low dragging down cold winds, it is a 500/1000hpa upper temperature chart, it is likely we will see set-ups like this being chased this winter on the models, we could have them materialize, they could change, this image shows short-term data and can of course change with small-scale developments.

That was at +144 now look at the +96 hr chart see how things change!

 

 

Last year if I remember correctly CFS data was indicating Arctic air quite frequently through late winter, I was posting the 'best cfs cold charts' a month or two before the dates the cold spells were meant to happen as shown on CFS charts, those charts evaporated to milder air-masses, but nearer the time these cold spells did show once again on the CFS charts.

 

So why were the cold charts / data playing hide and seek? because the medium range data changed the data fed into the long-range computer models I would think the reason. It's kind of thinned out as further ahead we look, the changes on the SR models are most likely to actually happen and the changes on the LR models to what we read one day and the next are just as less likely happen as to actually materialize.

Edited September 30, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Conor Sherwin]

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=2

[Conor Sherwin]

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=4&pagenumber=5

going towards this scotland could have 3 weeks of snow and cold