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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

Cheshire Freeze

By Cheshire Freeze
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Gavin Hannah Community Regular

Gavin Hannah

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted (edited)

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=4&pagenumber=5

going towards this scotland could have 3 weeks of snow and cold 

 

 

That's quite a long way out. I wouldn't get too excited at this stage.  However, there are trending signals for Feb/March to be colder than Dec/Jan.

Edited by IBringTheHammer
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beng Enthusiast

beng

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Posted Image

 

I had a look at the data Matt posted in the stratospheric thread - regarding the QBO state and possible analogue years.  I then took a look at the years in question and removed those which didn't match in respect to the PDO and likely Enso state this winter (I'm assuming near neutral or weak) - unfortunately it didn't leave too many years left so my composite is likely to be of questionable value - but interesting none the less.  This is the projected anomaly - not the mean pattern (which won't look nearly as cold) - but it does indicate a fairly cold winter overall - coldest in Jan.  Temperature anomalies indicate the coldest (relative to normal) will be across SE areas.  The coldest European conditions relative to normal may well be Germany, Poland and S Scandinavia where conditions could be severe.

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

Incidentally - here's the October forecast based on these years:

 

Posted Image

Of course the composite only has to be slightly out in terms of the position of the blocking to produce a notably cold winter for the UK.

Edited by beng
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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted

A shame that it's so unlikely. Earliest lying snow I can remember was 30th November 2010. Pretty pathetic really in comparison to other parts.

i saw plenty of snow prior to that date when i lived in Chelmsford...early November 1985 i think? and November 1988 was another.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

Met office contingency planners forecast has updated for September and covers December

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2797743

Edited by Summer Sun
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Met office contingency planners forecast has updated for September and cover December http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2797743

Well and truly on the fence!
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Well and truly on the fence!

But better than making some Maddenesque forecast for Snowmageddon, Tim?Posted Image 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Well and truly on the fence!

 

One thing which may please some is this

 

However, models have a weak signal for slightly higher-than-average pressure to the north of the UK, suggesting a slight weakening of the prevailing mean westerlies, which could allow a greater-than-average incidence of blocking patterns

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

I find it amusing when because a professional organisation decides on the basis of all the evidence that the quote at post 1357 gets sarcastic comments. What are they supposed to print, totally inaccurate comments simply to satisfy some folks desire for a particular weather pattern, and then get even more sarcasm when that understandably is incorrect.

Don't let science get in the way of a good story is what some comments over the years we see on this forum.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I find it amusing when because a professional organisation decides on the basis of all the evidence that the quote at post 1357 gets sarcastic comments. What are they supposed to print, totally inaccurate comments simply to satisfy some folks desire for a particular weather pattern, and then get even more sarcasm when that understandably is incorrect.

Don't let science get in the way of a good story is what some comments over the years we see on this forum.

Indeed John. Even more so, when you consider that more than 95% of winters end up within a degree-or-two either side of average...

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

In any case john, I don't think its that tragic a forecast from a cold POV to be honest, possible Northern blocking, you are extremely unlikely to see a repeat of Nov / Dec 2010 for a very long time, December 09 would do just fine for me so lets be realistic.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

I find it amusing when because a professional organisation decides on the basis of all the evidence that the quote at post 1357 gets sarcastic comments. What are they supposed to print, totally inaccurate comments simply to satisfy some folks desire for a particular weather pattern, and then get even more sarcasm when that understandably is incorrect.

Don't let science get in the way of a good story is what some comments over the years we see on this forum.

 

that post is not intended to be sarcastic by any means

 

Some folk will be happy to see that regardless of whether it will happen or not as the 3 likes so far suggest

Edited by Summer Sun
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

that post is not intended to be sarcastic by any means

 

Some folk will be happy to see that regardless of whether it will happen or not

 

I don't think he is saying your post is sarcastic, he is talking about the replies.

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UV-RAY Seasoned

UV-RAY

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley
Posted (edited)

I find it amusing when because a professional organisation decides on the basis of all the evidence that the quote at post 1357 gets sarcastic comments. What are they supposed to print, totally inaccurate comments simply to satisfy some folks desire for a particular weather pattern, and then get even more sarcasm when that understandably is incorrect.

Don't let science get in the way of a good story is what some comments over the years we see on this forum.

Maybe you need to get out more John as my post was meant to be humorous as my take on LRF are, they are all the same clueless, but at least they give it a go.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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RCT Apprentice

RCT

Posted
  • Location: Perranporth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Ice, Thunderstorms and Heatwaves
  • Location: Perranporth
Posted (edited)

SHUT UP WITH THE SARKY AND ARGUMENTATIVE COMMENTS PLEASE! Fed up with it, I come on here to see views on the latest goings on, not page after page of arguments... Posted Image

Edited by RCT
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smithyweather Aficionado

smithyweather

Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
Posted

SHUT UP WITH THE SARKY AND ARGUMENTATIVE COMMENTS PLEASE! Fed up with it, I come on here to see views on the latest goings on, not page after page of arguments... Posted Image

Exactly it is especially annoying on the Snow and ICE thread where I go on daily but more recently they actually haven't really talked about the snow.

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cyclonic happiness Accomplished

cyclonic happiness

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted

Indeed John. Even more so, when you consider that more than 95% of winters end up within a degree-or-two either side of average...

Funny how 'a degree or two' has most organisations screaming 'it's the end of the world, give us your money'? :-D

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cooling climate Aficionado

cooling climate

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

Wasn't the problem for winter 2009-10 was that it was mostly a Greenland block winter? The coldest winters in the south are Scandinavian block type with an easterly flow but with winter 2009-10, it was a largely Greenland block winter and hence why the north was much colder.The synoptics did not keep the worst of the winter weather away, it was that the worst of the winter weather affected different parts of the UK.Wasn't winter 2009-10 colder than even 1962-63 for Scotland?

 

I was referring to the CET temp for that winter and England got away reasonably

lightly compared to what could have been had the synoptics been slightly different.

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

SHUT UP WITH THE SARKY AND ARGUMENTATIVE COMMENTS PLEASE! Fed up with it, I come on here to see views on the latest goings on, not page after page of arguments... Posted Image

 

you think this is bad? wait until you see the model thread in the depths of winter!! Posted ImagePosted Image

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

you think this is bad? wait until you see the model thread in the depths of winter!! Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Indeed if cold weather is not in sight it will either be silent in there or lots of toys will be thrown out of prams

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

Indeed if cold weather is not in sight it will either be silent in there or lots of toys will be thrown out of prams

 

even if snowmageddon is forecast its still arguing over "if" "where"  "when" and "how much" !

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