Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Dr Forinor]

Your hooked for life now Dr, good luck.

Oh don't say that, I'm hooked to enough stuff already!

[lorenzo]

Oh don't say that, I'm hooked to enough stuff already!

 

Welcome along Dr Forinor, The Scotland Regional thread is quiet just now, but give it a few weeks and it will be in full tilt with all our summer hibernating regulars waking up for winter. 

 

Plenty to keep you updated there, yes, we post snow pics, charts, radar, winter tyres, winter. This was last winter from Scottish Skier as him and Catch got ALL the snow, ALL of the time !!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcx0F4SBN5s

[DAVID SNOW]

Oh don't say that, I'm hooked to enough stuff already!

[Dr Forinor]

Welcome along Dr Forinor, The Scotland Regional thread is quiet just now, but give it a few weeks and it will be in full tilt with all our summer hibernating regulars waking up for winter. Plenty to keep you updated there, yes, we post snow pics, charts, radar, winter tyres, winter. This was last winter from Scottish Skier as him and Catch got ALL the snow, ALL of the time !!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcx0F4SBN5s

That won't load for me, saying its restricted viewing, or something similar?EDIT: Got it to work. Really enjoyed that, thanks.I'm really looking forward to the Scottish threads when the proper winter kicks in. Edited October 1, 2013 by Dr Forinor

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

James Madden going for a brutal winter!UK & N Ire Winter Weather Forecast 2013/14 + Major Snow PeriodsDecember 2013The first month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to see a very cold and snowy start to winter. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. The northern half of the country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the vast majority of the whole month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of north-east England. Parts of southern England, Wales, and the Midlands are also likely toexperience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout December, especially in parts of southern England and Wales. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout the early part of the December period too.December Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for most parts of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, and even more so throughout the Christmas period and into the early part of 2014. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -20C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytimeat times too, but especially more so towards the start and end of the this forecasting period.December Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow across many parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for some lengthy periods of time in December. The risk of snowfall will remain with much of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 23rd to the 31st December (Especially in northern, eastern and southern parts).January 2014The second month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to be exceptionally cold and very snowy. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country, and a scenario similar to December 2010 or worse is plausible. The vast majority of the whole country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the whole of the month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of southern England. Parts ofnorthern England, eastern England, Wales, western England, the Midlands, and Northern Ireland are also likely to experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout January. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption on a prolific scale to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout much of the January period too.January Temperatures - Way below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures quite consistently during the evenings, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. There may even be the possibility of temperature records being broken in places, especially in parts of Scotland and Ireland, towards the start of this forecasting period. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -28C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing across the country during the daytime too. There is also a good probability for the development of ice floes, which will be visible from land in various parts of the country too.January Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some very heavy falls of snow across most parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for the vast majority of January. Snow drifts of several feet are also a distinct possibility for this part of the forecasting period. The risk of snowfall will remain with large parts of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 1st to the 15th January.February 2014The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with the cold and snowy theme. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. Many parts of the country are likely to experience a run of below average temperatures throughout the month and multiple major snow events, especially in parts of northern and southern England. It is likely that there will be disruption to the public transport network across these parts at times and school closures throughout the February period too. However, a number of brief periods of moderation can’t be ruled for this part of the forecasting period (normal winter conditions), especially in the latter part of this forecasting period.February Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET), especially to the north of the country. Temperatures may also exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -18C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime at times too,but not consistently due to a number of brief periods of moderation for this part of the forecasting period.February Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some significant falls of snow across parts of the country, in particular, in parts of northern and southern England. The risk of major snowfall is most likely throughout the period of the 15th to the 25th February in these parts.

 

 

For those that haven't read it....Hmmmm

 

BFTP

[Kiwi]

For those that haven't read it....Hmmmm

 

BFTP

Snowmageddon !!!!! again.........

Is this a rewrite of his forecast for most previous winters? or am I being unfair?

[DAVID SNOW]

For those that haven't read it....Hmmmm

 

BFTP

 

 

Brutal That's a forecast from the little ice age

[Dr Forinor]

Just seen this on Facebook, felt appropriate.

[P-M]

For those that haven't read it....Hmmmm

 

BFTP

 

Do you think he actually believes this?  I would love to know how the papers can keep quoting him when we have not had snowmageddon at all.  November 2010 was the best for me here with approx 8 days of snowfall (on and off) and some deep accumulations in parts - but no where near what he is touting and it warmed up after so was only a major snow event and nothing too bad after that.

 

Amazes me where he gets this from??

[Thundery wintry showers]

High pressure close to the British Isles tends to be correlated with cold weather, but not necessarily snowy weather.  Taking the UK as a whole, the most snowless winter of the past 60 years was probably the anticyclonic winter of 1991/92, which was mild in Scotland but most of England and Wales were near average to fairly cold in December and January, and then mild in February.

 

Snowy weather tends to be most closely correlated with high pressure situated somewhere between Greenland/Iceland and Scandinavia.  It is possible to get snowy months without extensive northern blocking but for that, we usually need Atlantic depressions to take a NW-SE trajectory into Europe rather than the more usual WSW-ENE route, thereby giving frequent cold northerly and north-westerly incursions.

Edited October 1, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Summer Sun]

James Madden gets worse in his January forecast he's said

 

It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -28C in parts of the UK during the evenings

 

 

For the newbies here he also forecast a bitter winter last year the coldest in 100 years I think and guess what it was only 0.4°C below the 1981-2010 average

[P-M]

James Madden gets worse in his January forecast he's said

 

 

 

For the newbies here he also forecast a bitter winter last year the coldest in 100 years I think and guess what it was only 0.4°C below the 1981-2010 average

 

 

You would have a reet tantrum if the temp dropped to that Gav haha would love to see your reaction if it came anywhere near! 

[Dr Forinor]

If this Madden guy is so badly wrong, on so many occasions, shouldn't he give it up by now?

Edited October 1, 2013 by Dr Forinor

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

That winter would surpass 1963, with December 2010 added onto the front for good measure! Let's hope we never see a winter like that. Wildlife would take a huge hit for a start!

[feb1991blizzard]

High pressure close to the British Isles tends to be correlated with cold weather, but not necessarily snowy weather.  Taking the UK as a whole, the most snowless winter of the past 60 years was probably the anticyclonic winter of 1991/92, which was mild in Scotland but most of England and Wales were near average to fairly cold in December and January, and then mild in February.

 

Snowy weather tends to be most closely correlated with high pressure situated somewhere between Greenland/Iceland and Scandinavia.  It is possible to get snowy months without extensive northern blocking but for that, we usually need Atlantic depressions to take a NW-SE trajectory into Europe rather than the more usual WSW-ENE route, thereby giving frequent cold northerly and north-westerly incursions.

 

 

Interesting though, the worse one from a Midlands snow point of view was the one after, there at least was an inch in early-mid Jan and 2 inches in mid feb- all we had the year after was the briefest half inch fall in very early jan and a dusting and an inch in late feb.

[Summer Sun]

You would have a reet tantrum if the temp dropped to that Gav haha would love to see your reaction if it came anywhere near! 

 

It would take some doing though even 2010 only got to -21.3°C in Highland Scotland

[P-M]

That winter would surpass 1963, with December 2010 added onto the front for good measure! Let's hope we never see a winter like that. Wildlife would take a huge hit for a start!

 

 

Ah I dunno I would sacrifice a few rabbits and possibly me Nana for winter like that....

It would take some doing though even 2010 only got to -21.3°C in Highland Scotland

 

 

Yeah I know and don't believe it but wouldn't mind a bit of snow and ice fest - my preference is hot summers and frigid winters with snow a-plenty!

[smithyweather]

Well it reached -18c here at my location in December 2010 on the last night of the cold spell. It is my opinion that if the cold spell had've continued, each night would have got progressively colder and I think temps such as -25c would have been quite common over time.

Edited October 1, 2013 by smithyweather

[feb1991blizzard]

It would take some doing though even 2010 only got to -21.3°C in Highland Scotland

 

It got below -20c here, not officially but enough people tell me their thermometers got below -20c

[DAVID SNOW]

If this Madden guy is Si badly wrong, on so many occasions, shouldn't he give it up by now?

Only when his forecasts/publicity stop making him money until then...................

[Summer Sun]

If this Madden guy is Si badly wrong, on so many occasions, shouldn't he give it up by now?

 

You would have thought so

 

Winter 2011 / 2012 he said

 

A UK-based long range weather forecaster has issued a severe winter weather warning for 2011-2012. The advisory has been issued following one of the coldest winters experienced in Ireland and Britain more than 45 years. James Madden from weather organization Exacta Weather correctly predicted the harsh conditions experienced over the last two years, and is once again forecasting record-breaking snowfall and freezing temperatures during November, December and January.

 

http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/forecaster-predicts-brutal-uk-winter-weather-for-2011-2012/

 

Result 0.9°C above ravage

 

And in November last year he said 

 

BRITAIN will grind to a halt within weeks as the most savage freeze for a century begins.  Temperatures will fall as low as minus 20C in rural areas, forecasters warned last night, while heavy snow and “potentially dangerous†blizzards will close roads and cripple rail networks. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “We are looking at some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least 100 years. This is most likely to occur in the December to January period with the potential for widespread major snowfall across the country.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/358717/Coldest-winter-in-100-years-on-way

 

Result 0.4°C below average

[Polar Maritime]

It would take some doing though even 2010 only got to -21.3°C in Highland Scotland

 

It was colder than that here during December.

Edited October 1, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Yarmy]

James Madden gets worse in his January forecast he's said   For the newbies here he also forecast a bitter winter last year the coldest in 100 years I think and guess what it was only 0.4°C below the 1981-2010 average

-28c in the evening. Just think how cold it'll be at dawn, the coldest part of the day! I'd best get some more socks.

[SomeLikeItHot]

If this Madden guy is Si badly wrong, on so many occasions, shouldn't he give it up by now?

Because he gets paid to do them. Perhaps he believes his own rubbish and his memory is as selective as his reviews of his own forecasts.

 

This is what he says of his winter forecast for last year on his website.

 

"

Highly accurate UK autumn & winter forecasts included correct details of: October snowfall inc rare October snow in southern England, major and successful snow risk dates for December, January, and February + correct locations, and below-average temperatures for January, February, and the first half of December."

 

Coldest in 100 years does not equal below average, but I am sure that if he was pressed he would point out that March was the coldest in 100 years and claim that was what he forecast.

[March Blizzard]

Considering -27.2C has been recorded on 3 separate occasions, and as recently as 1995, is it really hard to believe -28C could be breached in the upcoming winter, should we get a very cold spell?

It may not be probable, but it's certainly possible. It's not as if he's forecasting -40C!