Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Captain Shortwave]

Indeed if cold weather is not in sight it will either be silent in there or lots of toys will be thrown out of prams

Probably both, I will ask for ear plugs for Christmas 

Everyone needs to relax, winter is still a couple of months away, still plenty of time for models to chop and change and for forecasts to be re-analysed and altered at appropriate times. Let's enjoy the weather we have at the moment. Though I guess many coldies out there are currently having their eyes burnt out by charts like this

The coldies time will come. Sooner than some think

Edited September 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

even if snowmageddon is forecast its still arguing over "if" "where"  "when" and "how much" !

 

I remember when "that ECM" backtracked last year lots of unhappy folk for sure

[bobbydog]

Probably both, I will ask for ear plugs for Christmas 

 

blindfold mate, you can't hear the forum!

[Captain Shortwave]

blindfold mate, you can't hear the forum!

Oh that's not good, the models have got to me. I was wondering why others couldn't hear voices. 

[smithyweather]

 

Probably both, I will ask for ear plugs for Christmas 

Everyone needs to relax, winter is still a couple of months away, still plenty of time for models to chop and change and for forecasts to be re-analysed and altered at appropriate times. Let's enjoy the weather we have at the moment. Though I guess many coldies out there are currently having their eyes burnt out by charts like this

The coldies time will come. Sooner than some think 

 

 

To be honest here we usually have our first snow flakes by mid-November so it is not that far away - 2 days of snow fall here according to met office. December is winter in my books which is two months away.

Edited September 30, 2013 by smithyweather

[NorthernRab]

From Twitter @TWOweather: Updated CFS anomaly charts look good if you're hoping for a cold winter. #bigfreeze http://t.co/MmKPcVbHXh

 

Indeed. All three winter months showing a possibility of high pressure near Greenland. 

 

 

 

 

[smithyweather]

November does not look very good either.

 

Positive uppers to 62North.

[NorthernRab]

November does not look very good either.

 

Positive uppers to 62North.

 

Yet possible high pressure over Scandinavia - a cold Scandinavia is a big help for winter cold for our neck of the woods.

 

[Mark Neal.]

November does not look very good either.Positive uppers to 62North.

It's end of September very early days to be writing off November. More changes ahead as we get closer to November!

[smithyweather]

Yet possible high pressure over Scandinavia - a cold Scandinavia is a big help for winter cold for our neck of the woods.

 

 

It depends where you are situated in the British isles. For my area we do not get much out of a Scandi high at all to be honest.

[Don]

even if snowmageddon is forecast its still arguing over "if" "where"  "when" and "how much" !

 

Also arguing over "How long will the cold spell last?"

[smithyweather]

It's end of September very early days to be writing off November. More changes ahead as we get closer to November!

 

I'm going on gut feelings which is not at all good but it's just what I feel.

[NorthernRab]

It depends where you are situated in the British isles. For my area we do not get much out of a Scandi high at all to be honest.

 

It's not the Scandi high in itself that's a good thing for Northern Ireland, but any cold pooling over Scandinavia. 

 

We don't need a raging northerly in November, the suggestion of pressure over Scandinavia initially and then a block over Greenland is a very comforting signal for any coldie. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Yet possible high pressure over Scandinavia - a cold Scandinavia is a big help for winter cold for our neck of the woods.

 

Wow, I would be amazed if that came off, we would be looking at potentially over 2 months where Scandi or Central European heights have dominated the weather patterns over Europe, more so at this time of year where these blocks should be getting flattened. 

I guess I wouldn't be too worried or surprised if the first week or so of November was like this, I would still be watching for the retrogression signal as I feel this could be our route into a long and frigid winter (touchwood)

Edited September 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mark Neal.]

I'm going on gut feelings which is not at all good but it's just what I feel.

Fair enough, everyone entitled to opinions. Just I read November don't look good either and wondered what charts/signals are showing this, thanks ?

[smithyweather]

It's not the Scandi high in itself that's a good thing for Northern Ireland, but any cold pooling over Scandinavia. 

 

We don't need a raging northerly in November, the suggestion of pressure over Scandinavia initially and then a block over Greenland is a very comforting signal for any coldie. 

 

Of course but it would just be like this March where my area got cloud and a stiff wind with very little in the way of snow except for when a front pulls through.

[NorthernRab]

Wow, I would be amazed if that came off, we would be looking at potentially over 2 months where Scandi or Central European heights have dominated the weather patterns over Europe, more so at this time of year where these blocks should be getting flattened. 

 

Exactly - the essential point to take from these charts (as I know you're aware) is that they all point to a potentially benign Atlantic this coming late autumn / winter, which is excellent news at this stage.

Of course but it would just be like this March where my area got cloud and a stiff wind with very little in the way of snow except for when a front pulls through.

 

Impossible to say really, I'm focusing exclusively on the potential pressure anomalies trending in the long term. 

[UV-RAY]

From Twitter @TWOweather: Updated CFS anomaly charts look good if you're hoping for a cold winter. #bigfreeze http://t.co/MmKPcVbHXh

I was going to post them earlier but thought better of it as it would bring an avalanche of milder options Lol. It's looking like December could bring us a fairly potent cold spell something not to dissimilar to December 2010 maybe.

[smithyweather]

That would be brilliant. My area does extremely well in Northernly airmasses and a northernly airmass akin to 2010 would be perfect. We got snow by the buckets in 2010. 

 

I would love to experience a month of constant subzero weather, 2010 got near but not by enough.

[Dancerwithwings]

 focusing exclusively on the potential pressure anomalies trending in the long term. 

Good grief common sense!....... At this stage looking at winter thats what it's all about

[feb1991blizzard]

CFS 9 month 29th sept 18z run a cracker with plenty of undercutting going on, I wont post the charts anymore because people get hacked off as they change.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Of course but it would just be like this March where my area got cloud and a stiff wind with very little in the way of snow except for when a front pulls through.

 

Huh I thought Northern Ireland got buried in snow in March?

[virtualsphere]

To get in the mood for the winter season, I thought I'd take a look at the synoptics of the last few years to see if we have any common themes developing which could help illustrate what to look for this time around.  All of these charts are surface pressure anomalies for December - February.

 

Winter 2012-13

Might as well begin with last winter, and the chart shows significant blocking to the north of the UK (and it's worth noting for consistency that this chart doesn't include the cold March).  This set-up would probably have produced more significant cold weather for the UK if the blocking had extended slightly further south, and indeed the chart as a whole is likely to be affected by December's depressions tracking that little bit further north, bringing rain rather than snow; without December included, the low pressure anomalies would be further south of the UK rather than directly over us.  Last winter did bring a period where 'sliding' low pressure systems tracked under the block, helping to bring some sizable battleground snowfalls in places, and something we've not seen much of in recent years.

Winter CET: 3.8CWinter 2011-12 is the odd one out in this run of charts, the only one to show no significant northern blocking with heights to the south west of the UK, bringing a fairly benign winter.  Some parts had a reasonable cold February spell, but here in West Wales it was our first completely snowless winter since at least the early 2000s.

Winter CET: 5.1CWinter 2010-11 will of course be remembered for the exceptional December, but the overall chart is muted by January and February being included, and the Greenland blocking therefore doesn't appear as significant as 2009-10.  Even so, the blocking is evident, and in comparison with the 2012-13 chart the belt of lower pressure is shown to run beneath the UK rather than through it, as shown in 2012-13, bringing potentially colder but drier weather overall with a lower chance of battleground frontal snow events.

Winter CET: 3.1CWinter 2009-10 is the chart which will stand out for cold weather fans, showing a significant high pressure anomaly centred to the north west of the UK.  While the cold wasn't as severe as December 2010, this was probably the best overall winter for cold and snow synoptics in the period with the coldest overall CET.

Winter CET: 2.4CWinter 2008-09 shows slight high pressure anomalies to the north of the UK and low pressure to the south, weak in comparison with the 09-10, 10-11 and 12-13 charts but the pattern was enough to bring a relatively cool winter along with the first significant snowfall for several years in some places during the easterly of early February.

Winter CET: 3.5CApart from 2011-12, the one theme in common here is blocking to the north, but this hasn't necessarily centred in the same place. While 2009-10 and 2010-11 feature blocking anomalies in a very similar position over the Greenland area, in 2012-13 the strongest high pressure anomaly sits further east, directly north of the UK.As some posters have already mentioned, the one set-up we haven't seen a great deal of in recent winters is blocking centred towards Scandinavia, which can potentially bring easterly winds with a long continental track giving one of the best scenarios for deep cold conditions in southern parts of the UK.  Taking a similar chart for winter 1990-91 (CET 3.0C), you can see the core of the blocking is centred directly over Scandinavia, and from the recent charts, winter 2008-09 is probably the closest match.  Given the strength of the Greenland block in 2009-10, it would be interesting to see what could happen if we had a strong Scandi block – but as the chart below shows, this did occur in 2002-03 (CET 4.7C) and doesn’t always mean cold weather for the UK without the right day to day synoptics in place.

 

Winter 1990-91

 

Winter 2002-03

 

To finish with, winter 2006-07 (CET 6.4C) was one of the mildest winters and is a good example of what you don’t want to see if you are after a cold set-up, with a strong low pressure anomaly to the north (dark blues and purples).

Edited September 30, 2013 by virtualsphere

[carinthian]

Our 3 month forecast numericals for the period SEPT/NOV indicated a 60% above average temperature. September had positive 0.5c above normal. October looks like being under the influence of a " warm high ". Not unusual in recent years. What influence this has on the coming winter, not sure, but the feeling here is for no Northern Blocking for the first part of winter.

Our sequence from January has been, cold winter, cold spring, hot summer, looks like a warm Autumn and this coming winter looks like starting mild ?

C

[smithyweather]

Huh I thought Northern Ireland got buried in snow in March?

Yes we did however that was from a storm. Without the storm it rarely snowed.