Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

New to this forum, as you can probably quite quickly figure out. Been lurking in this thread since a few days now.

 

I'm glad to know there are others out there that love the snow as much as I do, I thought I was the only weird one.

 

I have absolutely no idea how to read these graphs you guys put up but I have been reading up on them and hope to learn from you guys too. 

 

 

My hopes: Snow, snow, snow and more snow!!! Hate the rain, really.

 

Welcome to the forum Doc - You have come to the right place if you are a fan of the cold and all the tribes and tribulations that go with it! When the cold weather does arrive this place gets crazy and really is quite entertaining!  

[Dr Forinor]

Welcome to the forum Doc - You have come to the right place if you are a fan of the cold and all the tribes and tribulations that go with it! When the cold weather does arrive this place gets crazy and really is quite entertaining!  

Thank you.

 

I am a petrolhead at heart, but I'm sensible. Meaning I switch to winter tyres come winter time so I actually do have control of my car. One of the reason I love snow is driving in it. I find there are way too many idiots out there that don't take into account the change in driving conditions and seeing the results can be quite funny at times.

 

Anyway, sorry to hi-jack the thread. 

 

Can anyone give me a quick lesson on how to read these CFS charts that are posted up? Or perhaps a link that may guide me?

[Snowstorm1]

This forum needs a trend tally to keep track of how many runs favour blocking and how many favour mobile patterns.Id put my money on 50 - 50 lol.

You'd lose your money. Im pretty confident within the CFS runs they are currently giving more favourable blocking conditions than mobile patterns on a fairly consistent basis.

[Conor Sherwin]

                                                                 IS THIS SNOWY WEATHER            

[Mark Neal.]

                                                                 IS THIS SNOWY WEATHER            

Entrenched cold air over the country, a low pressure pressure system sliding along southern britain would bring some potentially heavy snow from that set up.

[mike Meehan]

Noticed that Moscows max yesterday was +2C - this seems rather early in the season for such a low temperature, though we will see what happens - I am fairly convinced that if you get the deep seated cold set in, in that part of the world, it will be very difficult to shift and we could well end up with the crumbs of a cold/snow feste.

[smithyweather]

If that is the case it will not be long until the siberian snow spreads to Moscow then.

[smithyweather]

Noticed that Moscows max yesterday was +2C - this seems rather early in the season for such a low temperature, though we will see what happens - I am fairly convinced that if you get the deep seated cold set in, in that part of the world, it will be very difficult to shift and we could well end up with the crumbs of a cold/snow feste.

Which is always the case.

[Captain Shortwave]

Noticed that Moscows max yesterday was +2C - this seems rather early in the season for such a low temperature, though we will see what happens - I am fairly convinced that if you get the deep seated cold set in, in that part of the world, it will be very difficult to shift and we could well end up with the crumbs of a cold/snow feste.

This is mostly down to the European patterns at present with blocking to the East/North East, Western Russia ends up on the eastern flank with winds coming down from the Arctic. Probably just a cold snap unless the pattern persists.

Oh wait, it looks like it might just do that 

@Conor Sherin, that chart is a right doozy  

Edited October 1, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cheshire Freeze]

Brrrrr

 

 

 

[Yarmy]

This is mostly down to the European patterns at present with blocking to the East/North East, Western Russia ends up on the eastern flank with winds coming down from the Arctic. Probably just a cold snap unless the pattern persists.

Oh wait, it looks like it might just do that 

@Conor Sherin, that chart is a right doozy  

 

And yet there's a load of complaining over it.

[UV-RAY]

Brrrrr

 

brr.png

It's looking like the CFS is backing high latitude blocking to be the form horse again after it's wobble for a week or so. On a percentage basis you would have too say that with the current data at hand that blocking to our N/NW/NE is around 70/30 in favour.

[Dr Forinor]

It's looking like the CFS is backing high latitude blocking to be the form horse again after it's wobble for a week or so. On a percentage basis you would have too say that with the current data at hand that blocking to our N/NW/NE is around 70/30 in favour.

Sorry, can you just explain that a little to me please?

[SomeLikeItHot]

Sorry, can you just explain that a little to me please?

The CFS (long range forecasting model), is backing generally higher pressure to our north over winter, and lower pressure to our south, which will allow cold air from the Nth and East to come over the UK, rather than warmer atlantic air. If you want a sustained spell of cold weather in the UK then that is the kind of set up needed. Think winter 09/10 Dec 2010, or March 2013 all had northern blocking. On the other hand it was absent in winter 11/12 for the most part.It varies run to run, but has shown an approximately 70/30 spplit in favour (I can't verify the odds but it seems about right from what I have been seeing).

[Dr Forinor]

So higher pressure automatically means cold air?

 

Thanks for that. From what I have reading, it's unlikely that we can be sure until early Nov?

[Mark Neal.]

So higher pressure automatically means cold air?

 

Thanks for that. From what I have reading, it's unlikely that we can be sure until early Nov?

 

Not necessairly but it gives us a better chance of seeing colder conditions, especially in winter months, we have high pressure to the North & Blocking the Atlantic off to the West, with colder air filtering southwards into Eastern Europe, we then see easterly winds come from the continent with us into a cold pattern with below average pressure( Blue Anomalies)

 

Correct on last point, still early days, but there are plenty more and increasingly overt last few days again from CFS for High Pressure to dominate to the North around the polar regions which bodes well if you want cold further down the line, Early days however! 

Edited October 1, 2013 by Mark N

[SomeLikeItHot]

So higher pressure automatically means cold air?

 

Thanks for that. From what I have reading, it's unlikely that we can be sure until early Nov?

High pressure to the north usually will. To the south is pretty much gaurrentee of warm air. and we can't be "sure" until the snow flakes are falling outside my window .

The short range models which are usually reasonably reliable to 120 hours have been known to get it wrong up to 72 hours. Sometimes though they can give a good genral guide out to a week or so. Longer than that and I think you are mostly relying on teleconnections etc.

Edited October 1, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Dr Forinor]

Excellent excellent!!! I'm getting excited now! 

 

Thank you, for answering my questions, much appreciated! Shall be keeping a very close eye on this thread. Do people post pictures up when they a good day of snow?

[Relativistic]

i saw plenty of snow prior to that date when i lived in Chelmsford...early November 1985 i think? and November 1988 was another.

Sucks when I grew up during the 2000's. Thank goodness things have changed and hopefully snowfall from November to April will become a little more common. Last March was just the second time I'd seen lying snow during March. Only once seen lying snow in November and when there was lying snow in 2008 in April I wasn't even in the country! I'm hoping these things happen more often.

[Mark Neal.]

Excellent excellent!!! I'm getting excited now! 

 

Thank you, for answering my questions, much appreciated! Shall be keeping a very close eye on this thread. Do people post pictures up when they a good day of snow?

Welcome Aboard, being on here in winter is worthwhile, live reports in the regional threads with plenty of radar grabs and snowy photos to enjoy  

[Dr Forinor]

Thank you Mark.

I've never been interested in weather in this sort of detail before but lately it's got a hold of me.

[Cloud 10]

Into October now,shouldn't be to long till the first frost. 

 

[DAVID SNOW]

Thank you Mark.

I've never been interested in weather in this sort of detail before but lately it's got a hold of me.

Your hooked for life now Dr, good luck.

[smithyweather]

Lets hope so I think my average date is like 12th October but I am thinking this year it's gonna be November which isn't common here. 

 

Average first snow is 2nd week November I think.

[stewfox]

Noticed that Moscows max yesterday was +2C - this seems rather early in the season for such a low temperature, though we will see what happens - I am fairly convinced that if you get the deep seated cold set in, in that part of the world, it will be very difficult to shift and we could well end up with the crumbs of a cold/snow feste.

 

Yes its been cold there for the time of year, that's weather not climate change of course. (If its hot then that's climate change)

 

http://themoscownews.com/local/20130930/191953021/Moscow-weather-Cold-spell-could-break-records.html