Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

With regards to MADDEN, well he's just posting armaggeddon. I mean to have three savagely cold and snowy months....C'MON, even I don't do that!!! ;-)BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

With regards to MADDEN, well he's just posting armaggeddon. I mean to have three savagely cold and snowy months....C'MON, even I don't do that!!! ;-) BFTP

 

At least he lives up to his name though.

[sebastiaan1973]

Unfortunately they use the GLOSEA model which has been very poor, although that to is going for heights over Greenland.

I don't consider this as bad result page 24 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/4/n/MOSAC17.12_SRG9.12_Scaife.pdf

 

Altough we can doubt the worth of season models http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~mx020105/research/Maycock_paper_final_draft.pdf

 

Wasn't the Glosea4 model updated with a better modelled stratosphere-trophosphere interaction?

Edited October 2, 2013 by sebastiaan1973

[UV-RAY]

I don't consider this as bad result page 24 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/4/n/MOSAC17.12_SRG9.12_Scaife.pdf

 

Altough we can doubt the worth of season models http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~mx020105/research/Maycock_paper_final_draft.pdf

 

Wasn't the Glosea4 model updated with a better modelled stratosphere-trophosphere interaction?

Lol, well that blew up my theory. I believe it was updated last Autumn if my memory serves me correct?

[cheeky_monkey]

CFS this morning its going for a mild and wet winter this morning

 

 

 

 

this would result in a very cold winter across Canada and the United States

[Conor Sherwin]

CFS 9 month 6z 1st Oct run is almost a permanent Bartlett - the worst run I have ever seen - re run of the 1989 winter all over again.

i hope 

[Conor Sherwin]

 Conor

 

 apoligies if my post came over as been sarcastic 

 

Trust me though take them extended forecasts with a huge pinch of salt

 

C.S

yes ino

[EML Network]

I recall last winter how some people were explaining that before we get snowfall , we need to have the cold air in place.

 

I fear that this Winter the vast majority will struggle to get any cold air entrenched long enough for what falls out of the sky to be white.

 

Perhaps this winter is going to be one where we see a lot of front edge or back edge snowfall ? as opposed to extended periods of it ??

 

The Atlantic is very quiet for the time of year and I wonder what (If any) effect this might have as we head into Winter ??

 

I don't know what it is, but I just feel all the ingredients that might suggest we're headed for a cold Winter just feel like they are not there right now and the closer we get the more my gut instinct is telling me not to get excited about any cold and snow prospects this time around.

[feb1991blizzard]

i hope 

 

You don't like brutal winters then?

[Dr Forinor]

I don't know what it is, but I just feel all the ingredients that might suggest we're headed for a cold Winter just feel like they are not there right now and the closer we get the more my gut instinct is telling me not to get excited about any cold and snow prospects this time around.

With all respect, I truly hope you are wrong.

[Captain Shortwave]

I recall last winter how some people were explaining that before we get snowfall , we need to have the cold air in place.

 

I fear that this Winter the vast majority will struggle to get any cold air entrenched long enough for what falls out of the sky to be white.

 

Perhaps this winter is going to be one where we see a lot of front edge or back edge snowfall ? as opposed to extended periods of it ??

 

The Atlantic is very quiet for the time of year and I wonder what (If any) effect this might have as we head into Winter ??

 

I don't know what it is, but I just feel all the ingredients that might suggest we're headed for a cold Winter just feel like they are not there right now and the closer we get the more my gut instinct is telling me not to get excited about any cold and snow prospects this time around.

At this time of year we need to get Siberia and Russia cold, we are currently well up on Siberian snow amounts compared to last year and given the current weather patterns, this will be set to continue. Moscow is currently struggling to get above freezing and parts of Eastern Europe are already seeing their first snowfall of the season.

A quiet Atlantic means the chances of raging zonality are reduced, again the polar vortex sees to be forming over the Pacific/Siberian side of the pole, though even here it's pretty weak.The weak Atlantic will increase the chances of the jet amplifying and for blocking highs to develop, of course the question is where do they develop. 

We currently have a +4 SST anomaly in the North Atlantic, again this would point to a better chance of high pressure developing further north in the Atlantic and hence increases the chance of northerly sourced outbreaks.

Just because it's warm now and set to remain that way into the first 2 weeks of October, it doesn't mean it will remain mild beyond even mid-month, let alone the whole of winter.

Edited October 2, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Yarmy]

I recall last winter how some people were explaining that before we get snowfall , we need to have the cold air in place.

 

I fear that this Winter the vast majority will struggle to get any cold air entrenched long enough for what falls out of the sky to be white.

 

Perhaps this winter is going to be one where we see a lot of front edge or back edge snowfall ? as opposed to extended periods of it ??

 

The Atlantic is very quiet for the time of year and I wonder what (If any) effect this might have as we head into Winter ??

 

I don't know what it is, but I just feel all the ingredients that might suggest we're headed for a cold Winter just feel like they are not there right now and the closer we get the more my gut instinct is telling me not to get excited about any cold and snow prospects this time around.

 

Overall, there have only been 4 years with lower ACE so far since the satellite era began (1950)

 

1962

1977

1983

1994

 

I think 3 of those were decent (one spectacular) although possibly 1983/4 wasn't (without checking). I doubt there's much too it though because if a correlation existed between low ACE and colder UK winters it would have been trumpeted a long time ago.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp?basin=gl

[Summer Sun]

I recall last winter how some people were explaining that before we get snowfall , we need to have the cold air in place.

 

I fear that this Winter the vast majority will struggle to get any cold air entrenched long enough for what falls out of the sky to be white.

 

Perhaps this winter is going to be one where we see a lot of front edge or back edge snowfall ? as opposed to extended periods of it ??

 

The Atlantic is very quiet for the time of year and I wonder what (If any) effect this might have as we head into Winter ??

 

I don't know what it is, but I just feel all the ingredients that might suggest we're headed for a cold Winter just feel like they are not there right now and the closer we get the more my gut instinct is telling me not to get excited about any cold and snow prospects this time around.

 

One thing is certain the Atlantic is going to wake up at some point what isn't certain is when that will be it could be it wakes up during our winter which would deliver a wet and fairly mild winter, it may wake up in November bringing a stormy end to Autumn no one knows.

[March Blizzard]

One thing is certain the Atlantic is going to wake up at some point what isn't certain is when that will be it could be it wakes up during our winter which would deliver a wet and fairly mild winter, it may wake up in November bringing a stormy end to Autumn no one knows.

Or maybe not until next June...

[Summer Sun]

Or maybe not until next June...

 

Exactly no one knows when it will wake up it could be any time though it looks very quiet for the next 10 days at least

[March Blizzard]

Exactly no one knows when it will wake up it could be any time though it looks very quiet for the next 10 days at least

I wouldn't actually mind an Atlantic driven Nov/Dec, just so long it calms down again for Jan/Feb!

[simshady]

I think we should let winter start before we start writing it off. Let's not be all doom and gloom and just hope that it won't be mild and wet. We'll certainly get some cold somewhere along the line.

[March Blizzard]

I think we should let winter start before we start writing it off. Let's not be all doom and gloom and just hope that it won't be mild and wet. We'll certainly get some cold somewhere along the line.

Yep. There's always at least one cold spell, even in mild winters. Some better than others, of course.

[AderynCoch]

Personally I hope the Atlantic does a Sleeping Beauty and doesn't wake up for 100 years.

[feb1991blizzard]

yes, I hope it does what the dyslexic man should have done and not mistaken his valium for Viagra!!!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

So would a calm Atlantic improve our chances of delivering cold? Or is there an equal chance of delivering mild Bartletts?

[Conor Sherwin]

You don't like brutal winters then?

i ment hope not i said hope not wft

[cheese]

Personally I hope the Atlantic does a Sleeping Beauty and doesn't wake up for 100 years.

If the Atlantic doesn't wake up between now and November, then it might as well stay in bed until next autumn.

[bryan629]

If the Atlantic doesn't wake up between now and November, then it might as well stay in bed until next autumn.

scrolling through the latest run of the CFS... through October only, the Jet is staying fragmented..docile and just north of scotland... not a good signal for the onset of an Atlantic express . lows are being directed up the GIN corridor.... i know its the CFS and all usual caveats apply  

[Dancerwithwings]

In 2010 Sept was unremarkable, Very boring with average temps and Oct was a bit of all sorts, A wet start was followed by a spell of Indian Summer weather, but the third and fourth weeks were coldish,

It then became milder again at the very end of the month.

 

It sounds very similar to what we had/have now and we all know what happened in Nov/Dec 2010...... Fingers cross  

Edited October 2, 2013 by Dancerwithwings