Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[stewfox]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9wM3-RAmg0&feature=c4-overview&list=UU2wnqre5yOw-aFrYFegp_zQ

 

He needs to slow down when he mentions his sponsors !

[feb1991blizzard]

He needs to slow down when he mentions his sponsors !

 

 

Yes, getting down to the nitty gritty though, I like what he says at the end and it ties in with the CFS run that's on its way out now, loving the height profile for early November, its the CFS 18z run on the 2nd October.

[Dancerwithwings]

Yes, getting down to the nitty gritty though, I like what he says at the end and it ties in with the CFS run that's on its way out now, loving the height profile for early November, its the CFS 18z run on the 2nd October.

"Yes, getting down to the nitty gritty though" The last 7-10 days a cold northeasterly....... Now that's gettting down to the nitty gritty lol

[Mark Neal.]

Interesting documentary on BBC iplayer about Winter:- http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p01db15t/The_Great_British_Year_Winter/

 

 

''Documentary showing Britain's changing look over the course of a year. Britain is in the grip of winter. Time-lapses show a magical country shrouded in frost and mist''.

[Gavin Hannah]

Found this on Metcheck.com.

 

 

One thing which stood out last winter was the increased amount of Northern blocking. The Atlantic jet stream was also behaving as if it was running out of gas and the result was weather systems which would try to push in across Europe but stall in the Atlantic and allow Easterly incursions which brought us the winter of 2012/13. 

We mentioned that unless this scenario changed then there was a chance of an epic Summer which is what most of us received. So, has the pattern changed? 

In short... No. Northern blocking is once again starting to take hold and as a result the early indications are that unless the weather patterns change then the Winter of 2013/14 looks set to be another cold winter for much of Eastern Europe. We will be taking a closer look at what winter has in store during October.

 

 

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/article.asp?ID=367&Article=Winter+2013+-+Another+Beast?

 

Thoughts?  I was of the impression that the pattern DID change to allow the Jet to finally head north which gave us our decent summer...?

[smithyweather]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9wM3-RAmg0&feature=c4-overview&list=UU2wnqre5yOw-aFrYFegp_zQ

Very good nice to see the end of this awful awful awful tropical crap. I am looking forward to my first snow and frost at the middle or end of the month.

[feb1991blizzard]

Very good nice to see the end of this awful awful awful tropical crap. I am looking forward to my first snow and frost at the middle or end of the month.

 

agree with you this is crap but the video is only a forecast so lets not pop the corks yet although it does tie in with the Mets forecast and the latest CFS run that came out after this video was uploaded plus the ECM was starting to build the cold pool ready for the trigger shortwave or low to dig south - be that in early November or later on.

Edited October 3, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes, getting down to the nitty gritty though, I like what he says at the end and it ties in with the CFS run that's on its way out now, loving the height profile for early November, its the CFS 18z run on the 2nd October.

I think it was an excellent video well presented thank u feb for sharing this I enjoyed it a lot.

I think hes on the money not so sure on ten days and onwards cold plunge but bottom line is it does seem more realistic that listening to people harping on about indain summer lasting through November.

excellent stuff.

[Conor Sherwin]

There cold at first but slowly easing through the day.

 

Your not going to get any consistent charts for Xmas day until well into December sometimes it can be just 48 hrs before we know whats going to fall from the sky

 

Could I politely ask you don't post in caps as its often referred to as shouting I know your not but just for future reference

omg  ino ino can everyone stop saying it please like even if 1 person didnt tell me i would no its quit OV the charts update all the time thanks  

[Mark Neal.]

Found this on Metcheck.com.http://www.metcheck.com/UK/article.asp?ID=367&Article=Winter+2013+-+Another+Beast?Thoughts? I was of the impression that the pattern DID change to allow the Jet to finally head north which gave us our decent summer...?

Another Beast? Wouldn't describe last years end of winter fling as that was rather poor cloudy and a few flurries. It was when fronts pushed in from west that it delivered for some especially NW.I also agree about the jet heading North with us having a rather decent summer! Edited October 3, 2013 by Mark N

[smithyweather]

Yes cloudy and 1c every single day not my idea of fun.

[feb1991blizzard]

I think it was an excellent video well presented thank u feb for sharing this I enjoyed it a lot.

I think hes on the money not so sure on ten days and onwards cold plunge but bottom line is it does seem more realistic that listening to people harping on about indain summer lasting through November.

excellent stuff.

 

Yes, I don't know why he stopped posting on here, anyway its Gavin Partridge I think his channel, you can look at his archive videos as well, as for Nov, I don't see a 94 Style Nov / Dec where it was gunk until xmas, however, I think we may have to wait a while for any brutal weather though- although im starting to feel a little more positive lately.

Yes cloudy and 1c every single day not my idea of fun.

 

It can snow very heavily at 1c

[smithyweather]

agree with you this is crap but the video is only a forecast so lets not pop the corks yet although it does tie in with the Mets forecast and the latest CFS run that came out after this video was uploaded plus the ECM was starting to build the cold pool ready for the trigger shortwave or low to dig south - be that in early November or later on.

 

Well it has to change at some point. I would love it to come around the 20th and then that be the start of something COLD lasting to APRIL! I hope to see my first frost soon as usually it comes about October 12th. Did not realise but in 2011 and 2010 I had my first snow in October so first snow in October is not actually all that rare.

[Captain Shortwave]

Trough in central Europe in the last week of October, sounds plausible for me, I was expecting something like this around this time or just in November. First snow possible if Siberia and Russia has cooled enough by then?

[smithyweather]

We don't need them to be cold to get snow in October. I get snow in October quite often and it usually comes from Iceland/Greenland direction.

[feb1991blizzard]

Well it has to change at some point. I would love it to come around the 20th and then that be the start of something COLD lasting to APRIL! I hope to see my first frost soon as usually it comes about October 12th. Did not realise but in 2011 and 2010 I had my first snow in October so first snow in October is not actually all that rare.

 

The only time I experienced October snow was 2008, in the West Midlands of all places and it lasted the next day and it was a covering as well,  maybe nearly an inch.

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes, I don't know why he stopped posting on here, anyway its Gavin Partridge I think his channel, you can look at his archive videos as well, as for Nov, I don't see a 94 Style Nov / Dec where it was gunk until xmas, however, I think we may have to wait a while for any brutal weather though- although im starting to feel a little more positive lately.

 

It can snow very heavily at 1c

the famous saying calm before the storm. its a realistic video im yes im letting my thoughts be known in the model thread that yes above average nothing amazing but above I don't think ten days until a cool down or real weather action but I do feel the last ten days of October will be the real turning point.

theres absolutely a band of heatwave brothers in the model output no names of coarse but I do feel realistic way of looking at it is its changing much slower and lots more blocking avalible this year so far and solar activity has dropped of in the last few months which could help aid slightly the overall outcome of winter 2013/14 but we must get rid of this locked in pattern were in now.

[Mark Neal.]

We don't need them to be cold to get snow in October. I get snow in October quite often and it usually comes from Iceland/Greenland direction.

It's unusual to get snow in October what usually happens we start to see more of a wintery mix in showers especially over higher ground in Scotland later in the month. Usually we look into October at the snow and cold starts to sporadically move southwards into Russia and Europe. All part of the run up to winter! That said October 2008 brought surprises quite far south! Edited October 3, 2013 by Mark N

[Gavin Hannah]

October has the potential to deliver to some surprise cold and snow. Personally, the idea of HP over us for much of October would lead me to see this as a remote possibility.

 

I mentioned several months back that it's better to get the HP/Euro now (sep-october) as it keeps things cold and snowy in Russia / East Europe. If Cohens' theory pans out, we will reap the rewards in winter. Perhaps another Nov/Dec blast???

[smithyweather]

The only time I experienced October snow was 2008, in the West Midlands of all places and it lasted the next day and it was a covering as well,  maybe nearly an inch.

 

Ahh yes we had snow then too,..

 

Here are some years that I have seen snow in October.

 

2011

2010

2008

2004

 

So every few years.

[MR EXTREMES]

The only time I experienced October snow was 2008, in the West Midlands of all places and it lasted the next day and it was a covering as well,  maybe nearly an inch.

and 6 months later in april we had snow laid on the southcoast although it never stayed long it happened infact 2008 was the year we see something exciting here on the southcoast since the thunder snow of 2001 my dates might be wrong lol .

[feb1991blizzard]

October has the potential to deliver to some surprise cold and snow. Personally, the idea of HP over us for much of October would lead me to see this as a remote possibility.

 

I mentioned several months back that it's better to get the HP/Euro now (sep-october) as it keeps things cold and snowy in Russia / East Europe. If Cohens' theory pans out, we will reap the rewards in winter. Perhaps another Nov/Dec blast???

 

 

Hopefully, I have a feeling we may have to wait longer for anything brutal but im not making any definitive forecasts yet, I really don't know what will happen, all I am looking for is good signs like snow cover in Eastern Europe and even more importantly the stratospheric profile come November.

[Gavin Hannah]

Hopefully, I have a feeling we may have to wait longer for anything brutal but im not making any definitive forecasts yet, I really don't know what will happen, all I am looking for is good signs like snow cover in Eastern Europe and even more importantly the stratospheric profile come November.

 

 

Well the East European / Russian snow cover is waaaaay above normal atm. Latest IMS images uploaded in the Snow and Ice Thread.  Lots of positive anomalies   . 

[Captain Shortwave]

the famous saying calm before the storm. its a realistic video im yes im letting my thoughts be known in the model thread that yes above average nothing amazing but above I don't think ten days until a cool down or real weather action but I do feel the last ten days of October will be the real turning point.

theres absolutely a band of heatwave brothers in the model output no names of coarse but I do feel realistic way of looking at it is its changing much slower and lots more blocking avalible this year so far and solar activity has dropped of in the last few months which could help aid slightly the overall outcome of winter 2013/14 but we must get rid of this locked in pattern were in now.

We are only showing what the models are showing, if they are going currently for warm southerly with strong ensemble back, then that's what they are going for. All long rangers back this up too. I've been thinking this would be the route to go down. When I made a prediction for the coming winter I said October would provide the building blocks for a very cold spell in November despite all looking lost with October coming out warmer and drier than average.

That way of thinking is still looking good. I feel annoyed that whilst things over our side of the world are going absolutely to the script that people are ranting and raving about this current spell even though this is one stepping stone to the cold and snow they desperately crave. If the polar vortex set up over Greenland it could be game over for months, look at 2011, quite similar spell we are in at the moment. Difference is that the polar vortex is very very weak and mostly concentrated in the Siberian region. Perfect conditions I would say. Only a matter of time before high pressure wants to push northwards and get the jet going underneath.

I wish sometimes that people would be more patient, it's the beginning of October, not February and in the last chance saloon. The cold will come and I'm confident it will be making an early arrival with respect to the seasons.

Edited October 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[feb1991blizzard]

and 6 months later in april we had snow laid on the southcoast although it never stayed long it happened infact 2008 was the year we see something exciting here on the southcoast since the thunder snow of 2001 my dates might be wrong lol .

 

I got blasted in April 2012.