Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[forecaster]

Aaron

This has been catching my eye. Aug / Sept although PDO is in negative phase it was showing warm anomalies off West coast of USA and Canada. We now see the 'classic' reverse C looking like appearing again and to me this is an encouraging sign, and timing looks good for anticipated 'switch' latter 3rd possibly latter half of month.

To me -ve PDO enhances -ve NAO and jetstream shifted south. I think it will envigorate the jetstream to help shove our block away.

BFTP

 

 

 

Looks a bit like October 1999. Warm anomaly off NE US. Cold anomaly NE Pac. 

[bluearmy]

That type of evolution would mirror autumn 1978. So far this autumn is following that year very closely indeed. The pressure pattern set-up was very similar with a quiet warm autumn courtesy of a persistent high pressure anomaly close by or over the continent, a cold Siberian sector of the arctic with good snow cover build up and albedo -AO signature feedback cycle enabled. As we know, come late November 1978, this feeback cycle showed its first signs of impacting on us with a sudden change from the very mild autumn conditions to the first cold salvo of the winter. Then we know what happened in December 1978

 

Its early days of course, but just for fun, I think many of us would be happy to see something similar. Hence the current pattern can stick around a fair bit longer as far as I am concerned

 

the thing is recall most from the seventies autumns which seems to have been absent thereafter is plenty of foggy mornings.  some quiet foggy october mornings will be just fine from my perpective if you are after something more seasonal come winter.

 

as far as brazilian models are concerned, there is only one type most of us would bother to take a second look at and it isnt numerical !

Edited October 4, 2013 by bluearmy

[Conor Sherwin]

good after noon people 

good after noon people 

afternoon 

[Sweatyman]

Gday

[Captain Shortwave]

That type of evolution would mirror autumn 1978. So far this autumn is following that year very closely indeed. The pressure pattern set-up was very similar with a quiet warm autumn courtesy of a persistent high pressure anomaly close by or over the continent, a cold Siberian sector of the arctic with good snow cover build up and albedo -AO signature feedback cycle enabled. As we know, come late November 1978, this feeback cycle showed its first signs of impacting on us with a sudden change from the very mild autumn conditions to the first cold salvo of the winter. Then we know what happened in December 1978

 

Its early days of course, but just for fun, I think many of us would be happy to see something similar. Hence the current pattern can stick around a fair bit longer as far as I am concerned

That's good, being young my only recollection of winters is probably post 1995.

Nice to see some similar analogue showing up which seems to show what quite a few of us are thinking

[Tamara]

the thing is recall most from the seventies autumns which seems to have been absent thereafter is plenty of foggy mornings.  some quiet foggy october mornings will be just fine from my perpective if you are after something more seasonal come winter.

 

as far as brazilian models are concerned, there is only one type most of us would bother to take a second look at and it isnt numerical !

Btw I only 'liked' the first paragraph of your post...you edited it and added the second bit after I had done so

Edited October 4, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Summer Sun]

The last warm spell in October 2011 brought with it a mild winter with temperatures 0.9°C above average for winter as a whole

 

Now with this October also starting warm It will be very interesting to see what this winter delivers

 

People keep asking Matt Hugo on twitter if a warm dry October has a link too a colder winter

 

His reply

 

Keep getting asked about the 'warm, dry October' link to a colder winter. Some winters that followed have been but there's no distinct link.

[Weather-history]

The last warm spell in October 2011 brought with it a mild winter with temperatures 0.9°C above average for winter as a whole Now with this October also starting warm It will be very interesting to see what this winter delivers

Not sure why it will be very interesting since it won't be anything to do with what October was like.

[cyclonic happiness]

Not sure why it will be very interesting since it won't be anything to do with what October was like.

You can't rule out a link, you just haven't found one yet. The winter follows the autumn, so there must be a link somewhere.

[UV-RAY]

Not sure why it will be very interesting since it won't be anything to do with what October was like.

Indeed, the only correlation is that the following winter will more than likely be colder.

[virtualsphere]

I think November may well give us an early taste of winter.

 

I'd take a repeat of November 2005 - some crisp, sunny Autumn weather and a cracking northerly toppler which at the time was the largest snowfall we'd had since 1996.  The cold lasted longer in November 2010 but we didn't have quite as much snow or the same dramatic convective skyscapes.

[Weather-history]

You can't rule out a link, you just haven't found one yet. The winter follows the autumn, so there must be a link somewhere.

With 300+ years of data with temperatures and 240+ years of rainfall, there would been hints of one I would have thought by now.And in any case there is no such thing as a cast iron guarantee when it comes to the weather because if there were, we would have found links galore by now.

[bobbydog]

You can't rule out a link, you just haven't found one yet. The winter follows the autumn, so there must be a link somewhere.

 

to be fair, neither has anyone else. amateurs, professionals and scientists alike, devote a large part of their time trying to find correlations in the weather. a few have found very vague, weak links, most have found none.

[Methuselah]

to be fair, neither has anyone else. amateurs, professionals and scientists alike, devote a large part of their time trying to find correlations in the weather. a few have found very vague, weak links, most have found none.

There must be correlations embedded in the natural system somewhere, otherwise numerical weather-forecasting wouldn't work. That said, I can't see anything of any use (correlation-wise) coming from observations of day-to-day weather, in one minuscule corner of the world...

Edited October 4, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[Ian Brown]

We have seen over the last few years some of the m/era trends broken, it would have been unthinkable between 1988 and 2009 that a fairly mild December would lead to a total Jan/feb CET of less than 7. And then a very cold March.

[feb1991blizzard]

We have seen over the last few years some of the m/era trends broken, it would have been unthinkable between 1988 and 2009 that a fairly mild December would lead to a total Jan/feb CET of less than 7. And then a very cold March.

 

Talking of Marches, this should really go in the Spring thread but there isn't one yet, just for fun of course but the CFS 9 month daily 18z 3rd October run for March would make last March look tame in comparison.

 

And it carries on until mid April!

Edited October 4, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

 

 

And even into may!!!!

[bobbydog]

There must be correlations embedded in the natural system somewhere, otherwise numerical weather-forecasting wouldn't work. That said, I can't see anything of any use (correlation-wise) coming from observations of day-to-day weather, in one minuscule corner of the world...

 

there probably is. such as cohens theory of siberian snowcover. one thing can lead to another but it guarantees nothing. NWF doesn't really 'work' or it would never be wrong. it merely gives an estimate. the further out it goes, the less accurate it becomes.

weather forecasting is like forecasting the 1000th word in chinese whispers!

[bobbydog]

you know what? just this once, i would like James Madden's forecast to be right.

 

obviously i would then have to assassinate him....

[johnholmes]

weather forecasting is like forecasting the 1000th word in chinese whispers!

 

 

lovely description

[Mark Neal.]

you know what? just this once, i would like James Madden's forecast to be right.

 

obviously i would then have to assassinate him....

 

I've always wanted his forecasts to be right, sadly they have 0.1% of verifying due to obscene/very extreme predictions presented! 

[stewfox]

You can't rule out a link, you just haven't found one yet. The winter follows the autumn, so there must be a link somewhere.

 

Here is 352 yrs of data to start with. If you find a link let us know.

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

[cyclonic happiness]

Well, if the professionals carry on looking and the amateurs keep looking and the casual hobbyists keep on looking, we will crack it. But none should be ruled out, it's all part of the mix.

 

And seeing as everything in the universe is connected to everything else, there's no reason to think that a man standing in his garden looking at the sky, cannot make a forecast, of course he can.

 

The 'nay sayers' stifle some lines of thought, which is sad really as true scientists have open minds.

Here is 352 yrs of data to start with. If you find a link let us know.

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

That's you job to wade through that lot. I'm no good at maths so am not going to even open the link.

[stewfox]

Well, if the professionals carry on looking and the amateurs keep looking and the casual hobbyists keep on looking, we will crack it. But none should be ruled out, it's all part of the mix.

 

And seeing as everything in the universe is connected to everything else, there's no reason to think that a man standing in his garden looking at the sky, cannot make a forecast, of course he can.

 

The 'nay sayers' stifle some lines of thought, which is sad really as true scientists have open minds.

That's you job to wade through that lot. I'm no good at maths so am not going to even open the link.

 

 

I did see pg 42 post 831.

 

I don't know if we had thousands of years of data whether there would a be a link. On a NH basis more likely but as we know given the relative small size of the UK small  variations in the placement of a high can make all the difference re cold and warm.

[johnholmes]

There is a difference in this, links as in trying to link weather in one month to one ahead or a season ahead using either temperature or rainfall data for the UK, and no, not even the full Manley series, what 300+ years, has revealed any link whatever, to either a professional or an amateur that I know of for the UK, nor I suspect for any other individual country.

 

Don't let that stop you I tried for years with 50 years of data for Manchester to suggest links with all kinds of things, kept me occupied on night duties but led nowhere!

 

As to links using anomalies at heights above the surface, linking such items as snow cover, SST's  etc etc then there does seem some correlation but not enough yet to provide seasonal forecasts of a similar reliability to daily forecasts. Of course a season ahead and what one requires is above/below normal, severe cold spells highlighted, heavy rainfall, severe temperatures, hot or cold, depending on the season NOT detail as in a daily forecast.