Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Conor Sherwin]

 

 

And even into may!!!!

IS THAT COLD 

[feb1991blizzard]

IS THAT COLD 

 

 

Obviously not as cold as some of the charts I have posted for winter today but exceptionally cold for may and snow probable to low levels in Scotland and on higher ground further South.

[feb1991blizzard]

-8 uppers in Scotland 2 days after that even.

 

 

[Conor Sherwin]

Obviously not as cold as some of the charts I have posted for winter today but exceptionally cold for may and snow probable to low levels in Scotland and on higher ground further South.

I SEEN THEM IT WAS JUST CAUSE IT WAS IN MAY THATS WHY THANKS

[feb1991blizzard]

Check out the latest GFS run and the model thread people. Interesting GEFS suite coming up.

[stewfox]

Recent Octobers have of course been mild , the three mildest Octobers on record in the CET series occurred in recent times

 

13.0c  2006

13.1c  2005

13.3c  2001

 

2011 was the 8th mildest on record at 12.6c

 

1974 at 7.8c 30th coldest

1993 at 8.5c   67th coldest

1981 at 8.6c  73rd coldest

 

are the only Octobers in recent decades that make the top 100 coldest Octobers.

 

Wont be getting a cold October this year, that is a significant trend to warmer Octobers which I am not sure has been explained ??

Edited October 4, 2013 by stewfox

[feb1991blizzard]

Recent Octobers have of course been mild , the three mildest Octobers on record in the CET series occurred in recent times

 

13.0c  2006

13.1c  2005

13.3c  2001

 

2011 was the 8th mildest on record at 12.6c

 

1974 at 7.8c 30th coldest

1993 at 8.5c   67th coldest

1981 at 8.6c  73rd coldest

 

are the only Octobers in recent decades that make the top 100 coldest Octobers.

 

Wont be getting a cold October this year, that is a significant trend to warmer Octobers which I am not sure has been explained ??

 

Agreed but I doubt it will be as exceptionally mild one as some are predicting - don't forget chilly nights possible under clear skies.

[Cheshire Freeze]

FWIW, the GFS 18z in FI is a brilliant illustration of what I was alluding to earlier RE the transition to the November weather pattern which I think is likely and puts my thoughts into pictures.

 

'This November I think we'll have a shock to the system after the mild weather we've experienced thus far. I suspect a brief spell of unsettled (perhaps even stormy) weather will precede the transition to a much colder regime'

Edited October 4, 2013 by CreweCold

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

 

 

Recent Octobers have of course been mild , the three mildest Octobers on record in the CET series occurred in recent times

 

 

 

13.0c  2006

13.1c  2005

13.3c  2001

 

2011 was the 8th mildest on record at 12.6c

 

1974 at 7.8c 30th coldest

1993 at 8.5c   67th coldest

1981 at 8.6c  73rd coldest

 

are the only Octobers in recent decades that make the top 100 coldest Octobers.

 

Wont be getting a cold October this year, that is a significant trend to warmer Octobers which I am not sure has been explained ??

 

 

 

 

 

Is there anywhere we can see preliminary figures for this years October CET?

Edited October 4, 2013 by Essex Easterly.

[feb1991blizzard]

FWIW, the GFS 18z in FI is a brilliant illustration of what I was alluding to earlier RE the transition to the November weather pattern which I think is likely and puts my thoughts into pictures.

 

'This November I think we'll have a shock to the system after the mild weather we've experienced thus far. I suspect a brief spell of unsettled (perhaps even stormy) weather will precede the transition to a much colder regime'

 

hope your right.

[Cheshire Freeze]

hope your right.

 

So do I

 

In terms of winter, I think at present an overall -AO is favoured by myself. This doesn't mean that the AO will be negative unabated, it also doesn't guarantee that the NAO will be negative. However, I think on balance the winter as a whole will feature an overall -NAO. (These are my thoughts at present).

Edited October 4, 2013 by CreweCold

[Yarmy]

Is there anywhere we can see preliminary figures for this years October CET?

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77897-october-forecasts-2013-cet-competition/BTW, your avatar is ace :-)

[Buriedundersnow]

snow cover still on the its early march with a fairly decent gain in the last day

 

yesterday

 

 

today

 

[Conor Sherwin]

hope your right.

AND SO DO I yes

[Weather-history]

 1974 at 7.8c 30th coldest1993 at 8.5c   67th coldest1981 at 8.6c  73rd coldest are the only Octobers in recent decades that make the top 100 coldest Octobers. 

October 1992 as well with 7.8C

[ZONE 51]

I have decided to do a LRF for winter 2013/14 to be released within a few weeks. So what do I expect? A cold winter, potential for severe 2010 style set-up early as then too. A lot of data to analyze to be more confident and while keeping track of new changes, watching Atlantic activity / Jet stream, sea temps, and the far north of UK. October warmth has been behind some of the most severe freezes that followed in the weeks ahead

 

ES.

Edited October 5, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

 

 

 

 

                                           

MONTHLY MEAN CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURE (DEGREES C)                                  

Here is 352 yrs of data to start with. If you find a link let us know.

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

 

 

Thanks for that are take a look when I have time ...

Edited October 5, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[SomeLikeItHot]

 Ecm shows what we want in 6 weeks or so.

A bit wasted at the moment, although a refreshing change from the current patern

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

 Ecm shows what we want in 6 weeks or so.

A bit wasted at the moment, although a refreshing change from the current patern

 

 

Hearing the word snow on the model thread made me cringe. No snow on any charts yet. Just rain, all of it for me by the looks of it 

[SomeLikeItHot]

 

 

 

Is there anywhere we can see preliminary figures for this years October CET?

The official site  is here

 

Or have a look at the October CET forum

[Polar Maritime]

Hearing the word snow on the model thread made me cringe. No snow on any charts yet. Just rain, all of it for me by the looks of it 

 

I very nearly spat my tea out when 1963 was also mentioned...

[SomeLikeItHot]

Hearing the word snow on the model thread made me cringe. No snow on any charts yet. Just rain, all of it for me by the looks of it 

 

Maybe somewhere in the highlands of East Anglia might get snow from that chart. I'll just check my map to find where they are.

[Mr_Pessimistic]

Hearing the word snow on the model thread made me cringe. No snow on any charts yet. Just rain, all of it for me by the looks of it 

rain, or snow for us? u know better than that!

[smithyweather]

Ecm shows what we want in 6 weeks or so.

A bit wasted at the moment, although a refreshing change from the current patern

I don't want an Easterly it is useless.

[feb1991blizzard]

I don't want an Easterly it is useless.

 

 

I do - better than a southerly.