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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

Cheshire Freeze

By Cheshire Freeze
in Spring Weather Discussion

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

lower I would say but there is a quide for for forecasting snow, there is loads of parameters to consider,

And WB needs to be lower than your elevation level.
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Well this run still gives me 9c max.

But 0c degree isotherm reaches 1000m in Scotland. And 528dam covers larger area. But still not enough imo.

 

Yes the 1000m 0c isotherm does reach Scotland which means snow possible down to maybe down to 600m maybe, it does show a little on the PPN chart here.

 

Posted Image

And WB needs to be lower than your elevation level.

 

Is that wet bulb freezing level i take it?

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Is that wet bulb freezing level i take it?

Yeah! :)
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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Posted (edited)

agree about SM, but save cold setups for 6 weeks yet, 6 weeks too early for possible snow for low levels in the south

 

I would say 3 weeks for lying snow.

 

There was lying snow for 24/48hrs end of October 2008.

 

Lower levels like where I live it had gone in 30hrs but places like High Wycombe, Picture postcard for 2 days

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/28_30october2008

 

I would also take heavy snow showers in October even if it didn't settle.

Edited by stewfox
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Boro Snow Seasoned

Boro Snow

Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
Posted

I would say 3 weeks for lying snow.

 

There was lying snow for 24/48hrs end of October 2008.

 

Lower levels like where I live it had gone in 30hrs but places like High Wycombe, Picture postcard for 2 days

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/28_30october2008

yep i agree with the 3 weeks part we had lying snow at the end of last oct,

 

dp is really important is it not when forecasting snow or am i wrong

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smithyweather Aficionado

smithyweather

Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
Posted (edited)

Yeah! Posted Image

 

Explain to me I don't know what you mean?

I know what Wet Bulb is but i'm not sure what you are trying to say.

 

Yes the 1000m 0c isotherm does reach Scotland which means snow possible down to maybe down to 600m maybe, it does show a little on the PPN chart here.

 

Posted Image

 

Is that wet bulb freezing level i take it?

 

So really we need the blue uppers up in Faroe islands to come down here.

Edited by smithyweather
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Explain to me I don't know what you mean?

I know what Wet Bulb is but i'm not sure what you are trying to say. 

 

So really we need the blue uppers up in Faroe islands to come down here.

 

No - that's a precipitation type chart, the pink areas indicate snow, the blue = rain, the green = sleet, so it is showing a tiny little bit of snow for Scotland but i wouldn't bank on it happening until its showing on the higher resolution models inside 24 hours.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

No the -6c uppers i mean.

 

Yes, we would need at the very least that, but it wont happen, trust me, even in mid winter, that chart would not be a stonker, its only a toppler, although i would be fairly happy about the Easterly that follows as the continent would be colder then, thus possibly drawing very cold air in, although even then, it would be fairly dry due to high pressure.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Latest CFS gives 2 mild or average months and one below average month

 

December

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Rainfall average or below average

 

Posted Image

 

January is settled, dry and colder than normal

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

February is milder, wetter and more unsettled

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Netweathers NCEP maps for winter have

 

Average to slightly below for December and January, and for February they have average to above average away from north west Scotland, rain is well above average for some in February as per CFS

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'd hate to be the council-worker responsible for acting in response to the CFS...there must be salt lorries doing the Hokey Cokey, all the way up and down the M6!

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

I'd hate to be the council-worker responsible for acting in response to the CFS...there must be salt lorries doing the Hokey Cokey, all the way up and down the M6!

yes Pete, anyone using them on a day to day basis would be a touch fed up after a few days on duty I would think. Not sure what the less volatile versions of this show. I know Paul rates them as a guide but I have never used them so I cannot make any constructive comment about them. Others on here seem to feel they are not bad. Until someone does a proper seasonal check over say 6 months from about September out over the winter to show what they really are like then I remain a bit sceptical.
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smithyweather Aficionado

smithyweather

Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
Posted

Yes, we would need at the very least that, but it wont happen, trust me, even in mid winter, that chart would not be a stonker, its only a toppler, although i would be fairly happy about the Easterly that follows as the continent would be colder then, thus possibly drawing very cold air in, although even then, it would be fairly dry due to high pressure.

 

 

Well I don't want a foot of snow I just want a few snow showers... and i'm saying for us to get that we need the -6c uppers to come down.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

yes Pete, anyone using them on a day to day basis would be a touch fed up after a few days on duty I would think. Not sure what the less volatile versions of this show. I know Paul rates them as a guide but I have never used them so I cannot make any constructive comment about them. Others on here seem to feel they are not bad. Until someone does a proper seasonal check over say 6 months from about September out over the winter to show what they really are like then I remain a bit sceptical.

 

In general i agree, Gavin been doing one for a few months now but admits at least partially that its just for fun, i think what you need really, is not just a corrected version but some sort of daily or weekly mean IMO.

 

 

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjHfMuZ1bbw&feature=c4-overview&list=UU2wnqre5yOw-aFrYFegp_zQ

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UV-RAY Seasoned

UV-RAY

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley
Posted

Out of curiosity, has anyone subscribed to exacta/Madden and can vouch for the credibility of such bold statements?

Only those with more money than sense!

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

My worry is we're going to burn ourselves out. If it were mid-winter we'd all be wetting ourselves over the current output, lots of Northern blocking and plenty of moisture to go with it. I just hope the blocking we have doesn't collapse just as it gets cold enough for something to actually come out of it

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Gaz1985 Community Regular

Gaz1985

Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
Posted

My worry is we're going to burn ourselves out. If it were mid-winter we'd all be wetting ourselves over the current output, lots of Northern blocking and plenty of moisture to go with it. I just hope the blocking we have doesn't collapse just as it gets cold enough for something to actually come out of it

 

True, quite a few on here seem to think we live in Alaska at times. Posted Image

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

And Spain aswell.

How about Chicago, hot summers, frigid winters and it isn't called the windy city for nothing Posted Image

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Jonan92 Enthusiast

Jonan92

Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
Posted

And Spain aswell.

 

Well, Spain's weather changes a lot from the north to the south, I know that well Posted Image

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