Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[SomeLikeItHot]

Overall, there have only been 4 years with lower ACE so far since the satellite era began (1950) 1962197719831994 I think 3 of those were decent (one spectacular) although possibly 1983/4 wasn't (without checking). I doubt there's much too it though because if a correlation existed between low ACE and colder UK winters it would have been trumpeted a long time ago. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp?basin=gl

Well just calculated the Winter CET to AE correlation and its about 21%, nothing earth shattering but better than being negative I guess!Edit: Oops wrong way round correlation - Did it to the prior years winter. So doing it correctly is -0.09 it is negative, but pretty weak.Actually month by month is more interesting. ACE is -0.29 correlation with december CET, but +0.09 with Jan and -0.03 with Feb (ie essentially zero).So inactive atlantic makes december warmer on average it would seem, but little to no effect on the rest of winter (possibly slightly positive). Edited October 2, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Mr_Pessimistic]

At this time of year we need to get Siberia and Russia cold, we are currently well up on Siberian snow amounts compared to last year and given the current weather patterns, this will be set to continue. Moscow is currently struggling to get above freezing and parts of Eastern Europe are already seeing their first snowfall of the season.

A quiet Atlantic means the chances of raging zonality are reduced, again the polar vortex sees to be forming over the Pacific/Siberian side of the pole, though even here it's pretty weak.The weak Atlantic will increase the chances of the jet amplifying and for blocking highs to develop, of course the question is where do they develop. 

We currently have a +4 SST anomaly in the North Atlantic, again this would point to a better chance of high pressure developing further north in the Atlantic and hence increases the chance of northerly sourced outbreaks.

Just because it's warm now and set to remain that way into the first 2 weeks of October, it doesn't mean it will remain mild beyond even mid-month, let alone the whole of winter.

spot on mr sw..  personally, i aggree and think things are setting up quite nicely for us with reguards to cold pooling to the east of us. i would not be supprised to see some snow in november this year (more likely in the east (accept for the triangle of doom of corse!)), with the right synoptics.

Edited October 2, 2013 by Mr_Pessimistic

[Conor Sherwin]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhDVnevkL3E

please come back

[Conor Sherwin]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUN1eZEdnAk

is this really the reason we had a cold 2010 could it not happen again ???? 

[smithyweather]

2010 would be brill.

[Panayiotis]

 

 

please come back

 

We got hit hard here in Cardiff (look at my location in the video! In the snow for 8 hours!). Brought 15cm here! Something which I will never forget! Gets me excited for this winter! 

Edited October 2, 2013 by Panayiotis

[feb1991blizzard]

All the talk about recent events being great I do agree but I would take a Jan 87 / Feb 91 over anything any day, yes some other good events like Dec 90, Feb 96, Feb 86, Jan 85, Dec 10, Jan 10 but those are still the daddy snow events for me.

[Tim Bland]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhDVnevkL3Eplease come back

Was this 2010?

[Summer Sun]

Was this 2010?

 

Yes

 

BBC Countryfile Weather Forecast - 19th December 2010

[feb1991blizzard]

Have you got the Friday lunchtime forecast from the previous Friday or the six news forecast please WH?

[Boro Snow]

Yes

 

BBC Countryfile Weather Forecast - 19th December 2010

didnt snow here gav tho on xmas eve 2010 it was 2009 we had lying snow in 2010 but on that forecast we were expecting snow

Edited October 2, 2013 by Lee aka Boro Snow

[Weather-history]

Have you got the Friday lunchtime forecast from the previous Friday or the six news forecast please WH?

I think I have but I'm 1/4 through 2008 at the moment.

[Summer Sun]

didnt snow here gav tho on xmas eve 2010 it was 2009 we had lying snow in 2010 but on that forecast we were expecting snow

 

Yeah I think it snowed on Xmas day night didn't it back in 2010 which made it our 2nd successive white Xmas in Darlo?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhDVnevkL3E

please come back

 

turned out different, i had quite a lot of snow on Wed 22nd, through the band from SW on the tuesday, underestimated the northward movement, and intensity (by wednesday)

 

the thursday snow never happened did it? well not here anyway

[stewfox]

 Conor

 

 apoligies if my post came over as been sarcastic 

 

Trust me though take them extended forecasts with a huge pinch of salt

 

C.S

 

 

In need we are often told too much salt is bad for us , so I tend to take 'extended forecasts' with a pinch of lettuce far healthier

 

Its interesting October 2013 has started off very mild with some over night temps down south not falling below 16c tonight or tomorrow.

 

If someone can find a correlation between October temps and winter temps, don't tell anyone set up your own website and make a mint

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

[feb1991blizzard]

I think I have but I'm 1/4 through 2008 at the moment.

 

 

Cheers-  I can wait!

[feb1991blizzard]

In need we are often told too much salt is bad for us , so I tend to take 'extended forecasts' with a pinch of lettuce far healthier

 

Its interesting October 2013 has started off very mild with some over night temps down south not falling below 16c tonight or tomorrow.

 

If someone can find a correlation between October temps and winter temps, don't tell anyone set up your own website and make a mint

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

 

Did you really type lettuce there or did you type f---

Edited October 2, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Tim Bland]

Dec 2010 was great but the rest of the winter was poor. I recall the thaw and rain coming around new year and no more snow that winter in the south

[Don]

Dec 2010 was great but the rest of the winter was poor. I recall the thaw and rain coming around new year and no more snow that winter in the south

 

Correct, it was all over for the south come the New Year.  I think the Midlands northwards had some further wintry weather early to mid January, but after that it was poor for all.  Glacier Point called Winter 2010/11 brilliantly!

[stewfox]

Did you really type lettuce there or did you type f---

 

I was going to type Kebab but thought better of it.

 

I wonder when 'hopes' can change to 'discussions' , mid November ?

[feb1991blizzard]

I was going to type Kebab but thought better of it.

 

I wonder when 'hopes' can change to 'discussions' , mid November ?

 

Earlier than that now we have had chiono and Stewart's input over the last few years but not quite ready yet, the strat thread starting is usually a good indicator, late Oct - early Nov before we can have a real good handle although any expert input is always welcome earlier though.

[EML Network]

At this time of year we need to get Siberia and Russia cold, we are currently well up on Siberian snow amounts compared to last year and given the current weather patterns, this will be set to continue. Moscow is currently struggling to get above freezing and parts of Eastern Europe are already seeing their first snowfall of the season.

A quiet Atlantic means the chances of raging zonality are reduced, again the polar vortex sees to be forming over the Pacific/Siberian side of the pole, though even here it's pretty weak.The weak Atlantic will increase the chances of the jet amplifying and for blocking highs to develop, of course the question is where do they develop. 

We currently have a +4 SST anomaly in the North Atlantic, again this would point to a better chance of high pressure developing further north in the Atlantic and hence increases the chance of northerly sourced outbreaks.

Just because it's warm now and set to remain that way into the first 2 weeks of October, it doesn't mean it will remain mild beyond even mid-month, let alone the whole of winter.

 

Nice information there, which has cheered me up !!

 

I was, however , under the impression that Octobers snow GAIN over Eurasia was what signalled a good chance of a cold Winter here, so to have such early snowfall over that area means that it's going to be a tall order to get significant gains during October ??

 

Maybe I am confusing myself, but I was always under the impression that it's not so much the extent of snowfall early on , but more the rapid GAIN of snow over Russia and into Europe during October ??

 

So if one already has a fair sized area of snowfall over Russia already, it's less likely to see significant a rapid gains during October as there is less area to see a GAIN during October ?I think it's a common misconception that the earlier we see snow spreading West across Russia the better our chances of tapping into it, but it's the rapid growth in particular during October that signals a better chance of us seeing some cold and snow from the High pressure that forms over it and gives us those Easterly's ??

 

If that makes sense ?

Edited October 2, 2013 by EML Network

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Correct, it was all over for the south come the New Year.  I think the Midlands northwards had some further wintry weather early to mid January, but after that it was poor for all.  Glacier Point called Winter 2010/11 brilliantly!

 

7th Jan was my last snow, turned less cold from the west on evening of 7th

[Gaz1985]

Dec 2010 was great but the rest of the winter was poor. I recall the thaw and rain coming around new year and no more snow that winter in the south

 

Yes for the coldies I bet the rest of the Winter was a huge let down. In fact February was very mild indeed.

[feb1991blizzard]

7th Jan was my last snow, turned less cold from the west on evening of 7th

 

Same here, the earliest last flake in my lifetime I think, I know some around here will say there was a few flakes on that Saturday in feb before it turned to rain but there are different elevations involved.