Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[stewfox]

Earlier than that now we have had chiono and Stewart's input over the last few years but not quite ready yet, the strat thread starting is usually a good indicator, late Oct - early Nov before we can have a real good handle although any expert input is always welcome earlier though.

 

These are Global indicators surely ? I assume we can increase confidence to 60% that say December 'is likely to be below average' but nothing more ??

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winter-forecast;sess=

[cheese]

Yes for the coldies I bet the rest of the Winter was a huge let down. In fact February was very mild indeed.

January was OK, some snow and below average overall, similar to February this year.

[smithyweather]

Alot of cold air in Greenland.

[bobbydog]

oh.... dear..... oh..... dear..... i've only just read Madden's forecast, posted a few pages back.... oh.... dear.....

 

i feel a rant coming on....  must stop myself.....

 

the man really has surpassed himself this time!! i'm sure all of us coldies would love him to be right (by chance of course, not by his 'professional expertise'...) and if he keeps spouting 'forecasting' the same old sh**e every year then eventually he may well be.

his usual forecasts are far fetched to say the least, this time though, he has basically taken all the coldest winters since '62/'63 and lumped them all together to 'forecast' the mother of all winters. pretty much, very heavy, disruptive snow, for the whole 3 months of winter!! -28c??? ice floes off the coast???

 

aaaaaaaagh!!!!

 

( don't rant.... don't rant.....)

Edited October 2, 2013 by bobbydog

[Methuselah]

^^^ Are you sure you don't want to make a trebuchet!

[feb1991blizzard]

These are Global indicators surely ? I assume we can increase confidence to 60% that say December 'is likely to be below average' but nothing more ??

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winter-forecast;sess=

 

This is my humble opinion only based on my experience of watching winter LRF and I am a novice but if you are talking straight average temps and your saying above or below only, a guess would be 50% chance of being right, I think if your increasing your probability with teleconnective knowledge and model reading to 60% your doing well, certainly for the third month of your forecast, which is why Stewart Rampling was the best I have ever seen, even forecasting individual 2 week spells of weather at more than 2 months out.

[Buriedundersnow]

Nice information there, which has cheered me up !!

 

I was, however , under the impression that Octobers snow GAIN over Eurasia was what signalled a good chance of a cold Winter here, so to have such early snowfall over that area means that it's going to be a tall order to get significant gains during October ??

 

Maybe I am confusing myself, but I was always under the impression that it's not so much the extent of snowfall early on , but more the rapid GAIN of snow over Russia and into Europe during October ??

 

So if one already has a fair sized area of snowfall over Russia already, it's less likely to see significant a rapid gains during October as there is less area to see a GAIN during October ?I think it's a common misconception that the earlier we see snow spreading West across Russia the better our chances of tapping into it, but it's the rapid growth in particular during October that signals a better chance of us seeing some cold and snow from the High pressure that forms over it and gives us those Easterly's ??

 

If that makes sense ?

 

 

I don't think its so much the rapid gain in October we have to have its just the snow usually doesn't start to build till into October.

 

so this year the snow is setting early which is a good sign as the cold is setting in earlier than in previous years which I feel is better than seeing the gains through October as we are getting cold in the higher latitudes earlier which should aid its progress to lower latitudes as the cold gains hold going into winter.

 

that's the way I see it anyway I could very well be wrong though.

[Conor Sherwin]

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/winter-forecast-201314/

good to here this 

[stewfox]

This is my humble opinion only based on my experience of watching winter LRF and I am a novice but if you are talking straight average temps and your saying above or below only, a guess would be 50% chance of being right, I think if your increasing your probability with teleconnective knowledge and model reading to 60% your doing well, certainly for the third month of your forecast, which is why Stewart Rampling was the best I have ever seen, even forecasting individual 2 week spells of weather at more than 2 months out.

 

I agree this is when we can move from hope to realistic forecasting/discussion.

 

I still wish there was stats e.g Netweather have 85% accuracy re calling months above, average, below for temps.

[hillbilly]

Dec 2010 was great but the rest of the winter was poor. I recall the thaw and rain coming around new year and no more snow that winter in the south

I did read somewhere that early severe  wintery spells tend to end early with little towards the end of winter 2010/11 and 1981/82 being good examples,maybe we are due en early start and late finish,has there ever been such a winter?

[DOdo]

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/winter-forecast-201314/

good to here this 

That was issued on the 2nd of September, I am looking foward to his update on the 10th, How winter pans out only time will tell. I am personally going for a mild set up this winter but who knows nothing can be ruled out at this stage.Hopefully I am wrong. 

[feb1991blizzard]

I agree this is when we can move from hope to realistic forecasting/discussion.

 

I still wish there was stats e.g Netweather have 85% accuracy re calling months above, average, below for temps.Rea

 

Really!! that's stonking success rate.

[Mark Neal.]

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/winter-forecast-201314/

good to here this

It's a 14 year old lad he is on twitter who over hypes many things and exaggerates apparently. Recently blocked his own account as he got slot of abuse for telling people false information. His forecasts have been rather interesting, soon see if any truth?!

[stewfox]

Really!! that's stonking success rate.

 

 

No idea but looking at the last few years , the indication of whether the winter month temps will be above, below or average seem to be fairly accurate.

 

2010 looks around 100% on temps although no comment for Jan Temp

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winter-forecast;sess=

 

2011 /12

 

December /Jan slightly warmer then forecast (based on final CET values)

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=893;sess=

 

2012/13  Fairly close to 100% based on the video

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=893;sess=

Edited October 2, 2013 by stewfox

[Allseasons-Si]

Look what is back on the de bilt

 

http://www.null/two/ensembles/ ,cannot get this link to work

 

 

 

 

 

 

have you spotted it yet.........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

sneeuwva

 

 

looks like a total white out to me at this stage(bottom right)

 

for newcommers,whatch for the spiking(snow ppn spikes) on this chart come winter.

Edited October 2, 2013 by allseasons-si

[Mark Neal.]

Look what is back on the de bilt

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

have you spotted it yet.........

sneeuwva

15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

looks like a total white out to me at this stage(bottom right)

for newcommers,whatch for the spiking(snow ppn spikes) on this chart come winter.

A taste of things to come! Il Neige ( actually that's French; d'oh!) Edited October 2, 2013 by Mark N

[feb1991blizzard]

Is it the bottom end of the temperature range lowering?

[Allseasons-Si]

Is it the bottom end of the temperature range lowering?

Yes,i was just about to make that statement ,but been trying to get the link to work lol,

 

it is trending cooler but this is in germany if i rightly call,but a good indicator if we wan't that continental feed from the east in months to come

[-uksnow-]

It's a 14 year old lad he is on twitter who over hypes many things and exaggerates apparently. Recently blocked his own account as he got slot of abuse for telling people false information. His forecasts have been rather interesting, soon see if any truth?!

Yep - i picked him up several times last winter when he claimed he had just driven up to the peaks and witnessed 100 ft snow drifts, which then was lowered to 80ft and so on until he admitted they were 3ft tall..

[Conor Sherwin]

It's a 14 year old lad he is on twitter who over hypes many things and exaggerates apparently. Recently blocked his own account as he got slot of abuse for telling people false information. His forecasts have been rather interesting, soon see if any truth?!

what do you mean Recently blocked his own account as he got slot of abuse for telling people false information.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes,i was just about to make that statement ,but been trying to get the link to work lol,

 

it is trending cooler but this is in germany if i rightly call,but a good indicator if we wan't that continental feed from the east in months to come

Its Holland.

I

[Conor Sherwin]

what times do the cfs update can some1 tell me please 

[Allseasons-Si]

Its Holland.

I

Excuse my rustyness

 

still that way lol!

 

anyway,drawn the short straw,up at 5am

 

catch you all tomoz

Edited October 2, 2013 by allseasons-si

[Conor Sherwin]

Excuse my rustyness

 

still that way lol!

 

anyway,drawn the short straw,up at 5am

 

catch you all tomoz

NO ITS NOT HOLLAND ITS MOSCOW http://www.accuweather.com/en/nl/holland/872371/november-weather/872371?monyr=11/1/2013

[feb1991blizzard]

what times do the cfs update can some1 tell me please 

 

About 2 hours ago - muck until December but some stonking if short lived cold spells all the way through to March interspersed with some muck as well though.