Convective / Storm Discussion - 8th September onwards 2013

[Chris K]

Meh. Given up this year now. I bet anything that happens towards the end of the week completely avoids us or gets watered down to some petty drizzle.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Just cant believe the storm risk for my area on Saturday 72% all evening!! but I'm not gonna fall for it again.I've seen this happen many times and nothing happens come the day Lol

Same here!! Yeah, I'm not getting my hopes up, either. I reckon it will be showers at least to thundery showers at most.

Meh. Given up this year now. I bet anything that happens towards the end of the week completely avoids us or gets watered down to some petty drizzle.

Typical.

[Guest William Grimsley]

This looks good for Saturday Morning, here.

 

UK storm risk. Valid: 28/09 6:00.

 

 

UK CAPE+Lifted Index. Valid: Sat 28/09 6:00.

 

 

This looks good for Sunday Afternoon, here.

 

UK storm risk. Valid: Sun 29/09 15:00.

 

 

UK CAPE+Lifted Index. Valid: Sun 29/09 15:00.

 

[Jane Louise]

I don't even get thundery showers lol. Like Chris says it'll end up as day of drizzle most probably grrrrrr.  We'll have to wait and see there is noooo way in this world I'm gonna get excited yet not until it actually happens.Such a bad year for storms for some of us. Such a let down.

[Jane Louise]

According to GFS my area is supposed to have Thunder storms all day on Saturday....is this likely? I know its a long way off still but I hope this comes off.....See summer out with a bang!!!

I'm sure you'll be okay.If  You're working in London lol

[wimblettben]

I don't even get thundery showers lol. Like Chris says it'll end up as day of drizzle most probably grrrrrr.  We'll have to wait and see there is noooo way in this world I'm gonna get excited yet not until it actually happens.Such a bad year for storms for some of us. Such a let down.

For some though they have had some of their best storms in as little as 2 weeks for 6 years.

[Jane Louise]

For some though they have had some of their best storms in as little as 2 weeks for 6 years.

I'd say it's the North east that does well nowadays and I know not all in the NE gets them but those that do have had a good couple of years of them. Could it be something to do with the North sea? years ago we used to get some breath taking storms her in Cheltenham! autumn ones were pretty cool.Summertime was the best though for all nighters but sadly nothing happens anymore.. Oh, how I miss the storms, the best weather of all in my book.

[Guest William Grimsley]

For some though they have had some of their best storms in as little as 2 weeks for 6 years.

That is true. This summer saw the best thunderstorm activity, I have ever seen.

I'd say it's the North east that does well nowadays and I know not all in the NE gets them but those that do have had a good couple of years of them. Could it be something to do with the North sea? years ago we used to get some breath taking storms her in Cheltenham! autumn ones were pretty cool.Summertime was the best though for all nighters but sadly nothing happens anymore.. Oh, how I miss the storms, the best weather of all in my book.

Climate change or is it global cooling?

Newton Poppleford storm risk Sat 28/09 07:00 to 10:00: 80%. I can't wait.

 

Newton Poppleford Sat 28/09 07:00 to 10:00 CAPE: 885 j/kg Lifted Index: -5. I have never seen the CAPE that high and the Lifted Index that low, here.

Edited September 23, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Tim Bland]

Looks like thundery rain spreading north through Friday then thundery showers for sat. I wouldn't expect widespread organized storms though.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Looks like thundery rain spreading north through Friday then thundery showers for sat. I wouldn't expect widespread organized storms though.

That is exactly what I think. I think that is what will happen, here.

Edited September 24, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Guest William Grimsley]

Saturday Evening looks ok. But, not ideal conditions.

 

UK storm risk. Valid: 28/09 18:00.

 

 

UK CAPE+Lifted Index. Valid: Sat 28/09 18:00.

 

 

I think Sunday Afternoon will give the most action out of Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

 

UK storm risk. Valid: Sun 29/09 15:00.

 

 

UK CAPE+Lifted Index. Valid: Sun 29/09 15:00.

 

[Coast]

One to keep an eye for sure as the week unfolds:

 

 

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Oh yes! Bring it on! Except I'm going to a small concert in a field on Saturday Evening! 

Edited September 24, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Guest William Grimsley]

This is very interesting and positive.

 

Newton Poppleford Sat 28/09 16:00 to 19:00: Temperature: 17°C Humidity: 95% Dew Point: 16°C CAPE: 741 j/kg Lifted Index: -3 Precipitiation: 2.62 mm Moderate Convective Precipitation: 1.26 mm Storm Risk: 72%.

 

Newton Poppleford Sat 28/09 16:00 to 19:00: Temperature: 16°C Humidity: 98% Dew Point: 16°C CAPE: 911 j/kg Lifted Index: -3 Precipitiation: 0.21 mm Moderate Convective Precipitation: 0.21 mm Storm Risk: 77%.

[Jane Louise]

Thanks William... but there's no need to state Newtown Poppleford over and over again as you've been told before. We all know where you live ta

[Supacell]

I need storms to hold off around here until Sunday please :-)

[Jane Louise]

Typical!! my storm risk has now gone to zero for Saturday  tomorrow it'll be 80% or something then down again on Thursday, upped on Friday then sadly nothing again  for Saturday lol 

[Jane Louise]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/431689/Fierce-thunderstorms-set-to-lash-parts-of-Britain-by-the-weekend  

[Guest William Grimsley]

Thanks William... but there's no need to state Newtown Poppleford over and over again as you've been told before. We all know where you live ta

I was stating the forecast for my village...

[Guest William Grimsley]

Typical!! my storm risk has now gone to zero for Saturday  tomorrow it'll be 80% or something then down again on Thursday, upped on Friday then sadly nothing again  for Saturday lol 

Really? Sat 28/09 16:00 to 19:00: Temperature: 17°C Humidity: 85% Dew Point: 15°C CAPE: 766 j/kg Lifted Index: -3 Precipitiation: 6.51 mm Heavy Convective Precipitation: 6.32 mm Convective Cloud: 96% Storm Risk: 52%.

Sat 28/09 19:00 to 22:00: Temperature: 15°C Humidity: 94% Dew Point: 14°C CAPE: 396 j/kg Lifted Index: -1 Precipitiation: 4.95 mm Light Convective Precipitation: 4.2 mm Convective Cloud: 10% Storm Risk: 37%.

 

A bit lower than yesterday. But, still promising.

Edited September 24, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Guest William Grimsley]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/431689/Fierce-thunderstorms-set-to-lash-parts-of-Britain-by-the-weekend  

I think they may be right, this weekend.

[Jane Louise]

I was stating the forecast for my village...

Yes, Wills, but remember the whole of Netweather knows where you live anyway  .We sure don't need reminding over and over again thank you. How about writing NP instead!

I think they may be right, this weekend.

I'll eat my hat if they are right lol but somehow I don't think so.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Yes, Wills, but remember the whole of Netweather knows where you live anyway  .We sure don't need reminding over and over again thank you. How about writing NP instead!

I'll eat my hat if they are right lol but somehow I don't think so.

Fine I was stating your own websites words...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

William, wouldn't get excited at all about storm prospects this weekend, way way to far out, plus your using computer generated forecasts that change with the wind..

 

IF come Friday morning that the NAE PPN charts are showing something then you can get excited

[Guest William Grimsley]

William, wouldn't get excited at all about storm prospects this weekend, way way to far out, plus your using computer generated forecasts that change with the wind..

 

IF come Friday morning that the NAE PPN charts are showing something then you can get excited

Ok, thanks.

I'll eat my hat if they are right lol but somehow I don't think so.

Yes, they may not be "fierce" thunderstorms but we can expect some thundery showers, at least.