Convective / Storm Discussion - 8th September onwards 2013

[Bluebreezer54]

The radar is looking very lively down towards parts of the South West at the moment. An area between Bournemouth and Torquay currently showing some potential, and this activity appears to be taking an approximate north westerly track. Bbc radio forecast at 5.30am this morning certainly mentioned some potent thunderstorms down that way in the next few hours.

Edited September 28, 2013 by Bluebreezer54

[Supacell]

So another month then at a push

 

where was this Supecell,as to much anticipation.

 

p.s. 500 posts lol! hey

 

It was near Bolsover which is just outside Chesterfield

[The PIT]

Kaboom in the SW looks a beauty.

[Bluebreezer54]

Kaboom in the SW looks a beauty.

Indeed PIT. Cakie looks to be right in the firing line as well. Get on the case Cakie, us storm starved souls are looking forward to some photo's and video coverage

[philglossop]

Loads of my friends in Torquay saying on Facebook it's massive storm there at the moment.

 

Bet Barry in Frogmore is getting a good view!

[Guest William Grimsley]

Hell yeah! There has been some great thunderstorms! I've been up since 05:00 and there are a lot of thunderstorms coming this way! It has been a very loud and flashy morning, here!

Edited September 28, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Evening thunder]

Knew this would happen considering I've just gone back to uni in N Surrey aka no weather land..

[Guest William Grimsley]

Knew this would happen considering I've just gone back to uni in N Surrey aka no weather land..

I'm sorry, Sam..

[torbaypalm]

just outside torquay, lightening since 4 am, then on and off rain thunder still going.

[A.J]

Ok storm lovers here in the south west, hold on to your hats, as here's the latest radar grabs with lightning overlays...one word...KABOOM!

 

 

[Cloud 10]

There is a better chance of thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday, now.

 

Sat 28/09 04:00 to 07:00: Temperature: 13°C Humidity: 87% Dew Point: 11°C CAPE: 880 j/kg Lifted Index: -5 Precipitation: 0.33 mm V Light Convective Precipitation: 0.33 mm Convective Cloud: 10% Storm Risk: 80%.

 

Sat 28/09 07:00 to 10:00: Temperature: 13°C Humidity: 88% Dew Point: 11°C CAPE: 961 j/kg Lifted Index: -5 Precipitation: 0.48 mm V Light Convective Precipitation: 0.48 mm Convective Cloud: 18% Storm Risk: 80%.

 

Sat 28/09 10:00 to 13:00: Temperature: 15°C Humidity: 88% Dew Point: 13°C CAPE: 750 j/kg Lifted Index: -4 Precipitation: 2.01 mm Moderate Convective Precipitation: 2.0 mm Convective Cloud: 12% Storm Risk: 52%.

 

Sat 28/09 13:00 to 16:00: Temperature: 16°C Humidity: 87% Dew Point: 14°C CAPE: 572 j/kg Lifted Index: -2 Precipitation: 3.74 mm Moderate Convective Precipitation: 3.47 mm Convective Cloud: 33% Storm Risk: 45%.

 

Sat 28/09 16:00 to 19:00: Temperature: 17°C Humidity: 83% Dew Point: 14°C CAPE: 306 j/kg Lifted Index: -1 Precipitation: 3.84 mm Moderate Convective Precipitation: 3.06 mm Convective Cloud: 75% Storm Risk: 57%.

 

Sat 28/09 19:00 to 22:00: Temperature: 16°C Humidity: 85% Dew Point: 13°C CAPE: 461 j/kg Lifted Index: -2 Precipitation: 6.66 mm Heavy Convective Precipitation: 4.57 mm Convective Cloud: 52% Storm Risk: 37%.

 

Sat 28/09 19:00 to 22:00: Temperature: 16°C Humidity: 85% Dew Point: 13°C CAPE: 461 j/kg Lifted Index: -2 Precipitation: 6.66 mm Heavy Convective Precipitation: 4.57 mm Convective Cloud: 52% Storm Risk: 37%.

 

Sun 29/09 22:00 to 01:00: Temperature: 15°C Humidity: 91% Dew Point: 14°C CAPE: 220 j/kg Lifted Index: -1 Precipitation: 2.95 mm Moderate Convective Precipitation: 2.55 mm Convective Cloud: 10% Storm Risk: 32%.

 

Sun 29/09 01:00 to 04:00: Temperature: 15°C Humidity: 93% Dew Point: 14°C CAPE: 226 j/kg Lifted Index: 0 Precipitation: 0.22 mm V Light Convective Precipitation: 0.22 mm Convective Cloud: 11% Storm Risk: 32%.

 

Sun 29/09 07:00 to 10:00: Temperature: 14°C Humidity: 96% Dew Point: 13°C CAPE: 582 j/kg Lifted Index: -3 Precipitation: 0.0 mm None Convective Precipitation: 0.0 mm None Convective Cloud: 15% Storm Risk: 26%.

 

Sun 29/09 19:00 to 22:00: Temperature: 16°C Humidity: 93% Dew Point: 15°C CAPE: 564 j/kg Lifted Index: -2 Precipitation: 0.41 mm V Light Convective Precipitation: 0.41 mm Convective Cloud: 7% Storm Risk: 65%.

Oh yes!

 

....................................................................................... 

 

Hell yeah! There has been some great thunderstorms! I've been up since 05:00 and there are a lot of thunderstorms coming this way! It has been a very loud and flashy morning, here!

 

 

[A.J]

just to add, pop over to www.sat24.com, and have a look at the visible light and infra-red imagery....looks stunning over the south west, like an atom bomb going off....lol.......certainly looks like an MCS

[wimblettben]

Ok storm lovers here in the south west, hold on to your hats, as here's the latest radar grabs with lightning overlays...one word...KABOOM!

 

viewimage.pbx.png

 

viewimage1.pbx.png

I hope so!

 

There has been nothing here so far but it looks like quite a few including William have had some thunder.

 

There is a bank of darkish clouds to the south and southwest moving this way.

[Evening thunder]

On satellite imagery those cells look just like the big ones we usually look at with envy over the continent in summer.

 

What do people think the chances are this evening and tonight in the east Devon area? the BBC shows at least as many 'heavy showers' as it ever mentioned for this morning lol, and I could pop home albeit for less than 2 days.

[Cloud 10]

[A.J]

latest-vis-fr.jpg

looks like some nuclear detonations over western europe and England this morning....lol

 

keep a close eye on developments over northern france today, I'd expect these to drft across the chanell and affect southern counties throughout the day

[South coaster]

I hope so

looks like some nuclear detonations over western europe and England this morning....lol keep a close eye on developments over northern france today, I'd expect these to drft across the chanell and affect southern counties throughout the day

I hope so I'm right on the south coast in portsmouth here's hoping we see some activity today

[Coast]

No forecast from ESTOFEX so far today (unusual?) UKASF have an area we all pretty much agree on now I guess?

 

 

 

 

Synopsis

 

Upper trough/low west of Biscay will migrate eastwards towards France. On its northern flank, advection of a very warm and humid airmass will occur from NW France to SW Britain, with associated mid-level instability. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain close to Biscay coasts towards Scilly.

 

Discussion

 

Along the plume axis, scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to drift northwestwards across the highlighted SLGT area throughout the forecast period, with some 400-600 J/kg MLCAPE. Given such instability, some stronger cells may produce small hail. Decaying cells may drift further north later in the day, although some uncertainty exists as to their northern extent.

 

Edit: Skywarn have nothing either!!! 

Edited September 28, 2013 by Coast

[A.J]

 

No forecast from ESTOFEX so far today (unusual?) UKASF have an area we all pretty much agree on now I guess?

 

 

Skywarn have something similar:

 

 

 

erm....looked at the skywarn warning, and I thought 'eh that doesn't make sense, wrong areas are highlighted and the synoptic patterns are all wrong'...then looked at the date....that's a warning from the 6th september Robin....doh!

[Coast]

GFS still going for the main action over France?

 

 

 

 

Plenty of rain on the SW coast:

 

 

erm....looked at the skywarn warning, and I thought 'eh that doesn't make sense, wrong areas are highlighted and the synoptic patterns are all wrong'...then looked at the date....that's a warning from the 6th september Robin....doh!

 

:doh indeed AJ! (on my part more than theirs :lol: )

[Jane Louise]

Wow you lucky lot who are getting storms

Don't forget to share any pics or videos.

I hope these storms travel up to Gloucestershire but I doubt it very much.

[IanR]

Hell yeah! There has been some great thunderstorms! I've been up since 05:00 and there are a lot of thunderstorms coming this way! It has been a very loud and flashy morning, here!

Good stuff

must say I am a little jealous,  but its going to be a nice warm sunny day here

 

I would take the storms first though, i wonder if the warm summer has raised the sea temps making these MCS systems survive and flourish....enjoy

[Coast]

Looks like it's getting going now:

 

[Chris K]

Bleurgh think its all going to stay too far south/Sw to reach the Bristol area. There are rainy remnants edging northwards very slowly towards here but not thundery by looks of things.

[wimblettben]

Hope something kicks off soon. Its just light to moderate rain at the moment.