Convective / Storm Discussion - 8th September onwards 2013

[poseidon]

Blimey, looks more like a French MCS from cloud top temps.....

 

 

Lightning activity on the South coast seems to have died off for the moment, but seems to be another batch coming up from channel islands.

Edited September 28, 2013 by poseidon

[Cakie]

Dispute the radar, the lightening didn't quite reach us, always in the distance but it didn't stop a couple of big house shakers. Those nearer Exeter have had a treat this morning. Heavy rain dying off a bit now

[Evening thunder]

According to Netweather Radar some serious 6 hour rain accumulations in the channel, up to 200-250mm locally!

Imagine if that had happened over land!

[wimblettben]

Blimey, looks more like a French MCS from cloud top temps.....

 

CloudTopTemps-sat.jpg

 

Lightning activity on the South coast seems to have died off for the moment, but seems to be another batch coming up from channel islands.

Thats a shame. Will have to hope for something later now then.

[Paul]

Looking pretty lively down in the southwest this morning!

 

 

Live radar + ATD lightning detection

http://www.netweather.tv/radar

[Cakie]

It was just a bit too far West for me but the guys at the Met Office must have loved it in Exeter

[Tim Bland]

Looking pretty lively down in the southwest this morning!

 

radarloud.png

 

Live radar + ATD lightning detection

http://www.netweather.tv/radar 

Any ideas how to access the lightning detector on Net Weather? I get the following message on the above link...

Oops....

Unfortunately the page you're trying to reach is no longer on the Netweather website. This doesn't mean the forecast or feature you're trying to find no longer exists, perhaps you have typed in the incorrect address or are using an old link or bookmark which has been changed.

[Paul]

That's a bit strange, will look into it now. In the meantime the radar is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

 

Edit - original link now working too - I put a space at the end of it and that for some reason confused the system 

[wimblettben]

Looking at the radar it all looks way too far west of me to be honest.

 

On the BBC forecast it looked like tonight would be the best chance for something here as there looked to be a line of heavy showers coming in from the east on the graphics.

[Mapantz]

24hr lightning distribution. http://195.214.200.121/index.aspx?id=14 

Edited September 28, 2013 by Mapantz

[exeuser]

Really strange lightning in Exeter this morning, was very frequent and for some reason very blue looking.....

[Bobby]

Very impressive looking radar over the past few hours, some decent downpours and storms. If only it was a bit further N, much of the southern UK would have been battered by some severe weather. looks like it's close but no cigar again here. More developments still likely through the day I think.

[Methuselah]

Really strange lightning in Exeter this morning, was very frequent and for some reason very blue looking.....

Used to see a lot of blue/blue-white lightning from the Scottish Highlands. Might be wrong, but I put it down to relatively dry and dust-free air...

[Guest William Grimsley]

The satellite image looks incredible. There are lots of MCS clouds about with lots of lightning thrown in. This could be a very interesting afternoon, here.

[Chris K]

Definitely a day for the SW quarter of the UK today. Just a shame I'm too far NE. Enjoy guys

[Guest William Grimsley]

Looking good! http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx2;sess=

[wimblettben]

Definitely a day for the SW quarter of the UK today. Just a shame I'm too far NE. Enjoy guys

I know, its really bugging me now!

[poseidon]

My slim hopes of stormy weather are pinned on Wednesday.

[Paul]

There have been over 3500 strikes today, the majority of which have been just out over the English channel!

 

[Tim Bland]

Looks like about 3400 of them were over sea ðŸ˜

[Mapantz]

Yep - I was just glancing at the charts myself, with that low pressure anchored out to the West, it could provide more showers during the week, with the chance of thunder too. Certainly a messy looking picture.  

[Coast]

Yep - I was just glancing at the charts myself, with that low pressure anchored out to the West, it could provide more showers during the week, with the chance of thunder too. Certainly a messy looking picture.

 

Chances still there, but again the other side of The Channel is looking favoured:

 

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Messy indeed. GFS develops marginal instability over western and southwestern parts from Tuesday with decent moisture return from deep SW under height falls and cool air aloft, so a slight thunder risk for those regions. Reasonably steep lapse rates atop relatively warm SSTs would likely see the risk existing into the evening period for places near W'ern/SW'ern coasts. GFS also hinting at (perhaps) a more substantial risk during Thursday, but for southeastern and eastern parts, as increased low-level moisture advects from Iberia/Biscay. Potentially a short period of torrential rainfall if nothing else. A little way out though.

Yes, it looks like that and SE England E Anglia will see some heavy/torrential rain on Thursday which will have moved up from the S from E France. There will be some heavy rain too, here.

[ZONE 51]

......... but for southeastern and eastern parts, as increased low-level moisture advects from Iberia/Biscay. Potentially a short period of torrential rainfall if nothing else. A little way out though.

Not even a risk of thunder? wouldn't it be amazing to get an MCS drift up on a humid mid-level plume this time of the year!!

[Coast]

A couple of chances of something early this week maybe?

 

 

A close call on Wednesday?

 

 

The convective threat for Thursday is now a distant memory on GFS, just plenty of rain from that particular model:

 

 

 

 

Then Friday:

 

 

 

Maybe the last chance saloon for us this year? Only time will tell.