Very Severe Tropical Cyclone Phailin

[radiohead]

Watching Indian TV news online a short while ago, they had an Indian Met departmant guy on, asking if they were underestimating this since the JWTC are forecasting a much stronger storm (320+ km/h gusts). He said he didn't think the criticism was fair because this will be impacting a "very small area" for a short period of time...

Edited October 11, 2013 by radiohead

[Nick B]

The last major cyclone was in 1999, named Odisha... this one may retain its strength and be just as damaging.  The storm surge on that occasion was 8m and swept up to 20km inland in some places where the ground is uniform and low lying.  Absolutely devastating.  At least if the authorities set up an exclusion zone and got people even to walk inland to higher ground a great number could be saved.  It may now be rather late for some.

I know cyclones change course erratically sometimes but there's no sign of that happening when you look at the satellite time lapse on this.  After a weaker period it looks to be generally gathering strength in stages at the moment and heading on curve taking it NW on a path somewhere between Brahmapur (pop. 355,000 plus) and Srikakuram (population 155,000 plus).  If it swings on a course more to the west (following the eye on the hourly satellite snapshots, this seems to be the case, though slowing down in forward motion a little), then a major population centre, Visakhapatnam, with over 2 million inhabitants is potentially in the firing line.  At least here the surroundings seem to be more hilly, allowing people to take refuge from a surge on higher ground, nevertheless that's an awful lot of people, so unless the storm weakens then statistically it's looking to be quite a concern.  Trouble is, where cyclones such as this one meet hillier terrain, although they weaken in wind strength they do dump an awful lot of rain in very little time enhancing the flood risk to people living within the valleys on higher ground.  Although it is interesting to see weather models and satellite photos, some can be worrying and I think this storm falls into that category.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Odisha_cyclone

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC have upped the winds to 140kts, making Phailin a cat 5, the first in the basin since 2007. Phailin will probably still be a cat 5 at landfall.

[radiohead]

[radiohead]

Estimated MSLP is incredible...

 

[Sainsbo]

Wow, Phailin certainly did bomb out. The link provided by radiohead shows Phailin has intensified further and has minimum pressure down to 910.8mb again. Very worrying times for people in the firing line.

[radiohead]

Wow, Phailin certainly did bomb out. The link provided by radiohead shows Phailin has intensified further and has minimum pressure down to 910.8mb again. Very worrying times for people in the firing line.

 

MTCSWA (above) puts it at 883.5 which seems unbelievable, but the structure looks amazing and with no recon out there who knows...

[BurntFishTrousers]

 

886mb 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/PHAILIN_N-list.txt

Edited October 11, 2013 by BurntFishTrousers

[Steve C]

MTCSWA (above) puts it at 883.5 which seems unbelievable, but the structure looks amazing and with no recon out there who knows...

 

Hideous. I think most of us like to see extreme weather, but when it impacts impoverished people, it's just awful.

[Sainsbo]

MTCSWA (above) puts it at 883.5 which seems unbelievable, but the structure looks amazing and with no recon out there who knows...

My god, I hope people are taking the necessary precautions.

 

I personally don't think that it is likely that it is down to 883mb, or even sub 900. I know it's possible, but that would be almost 30mb lower than any other cyclone recorded in the region - Seems quite insane!

[BurntFishTrousers]

886 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/PHAILIN_N-list.txt

[lorenzo]

Some Twitter updates..

 

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/cool_stuff/cool_stuffjava5.html

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_scale

 

Animation Eumetsat via Weatherbell

http://models.weatherbell.com/news/phailin_animation.gif

 

Links profile from G+ https://plus.google.com/112783730111557040349/posts/DpJfrxteRLA

 

 

Mind Boggling system.

 

 

 

 

 

[picog]

886  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/PHAILIN_N-list.txt

I didn't know that the pressure could fall below 900. Poor, poor people who are going to experience that storm.

[Kain]

What a monster! Those poor people...

 

beautiful but deadly indeed.

 

K

[summer blizzard]

She's incredible.

[summer blizzard]

886mb, 150KT, (170mph).

Incredible, this is pretty much as strong as Wilma, just a lot bigger.

If only recon was in there.

[lorenzo]

[radiohead]

Taking a westward jog for the past few hours. It might be just a wobble before going more northward again, but at the moment it looks like missing it's next forecast point to the south.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02B/flash-ft-short.html

[lfcdude]

http://news.sky.com/story/1153402/cyclone-phailin-thousands-flee-in-east-india

 

 

 

Many villagers said they had not been told to evacuate, and others were refusing to leave their homes.

"Of course I'm scared, but where will I move with my family?" said Kuramayya, 38, a fisherman from the village of Bandharuvanipeta, while 12ft waves crashed behind him. "We can't leave our boats behind."

The Indian Meteorological Department said Phailin would hit between Kalingapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and the port of Paradip in Odisha state and predicted storm surges 10ft above normal tides.

 

 

10ft? and the rest.......... India meteorological center... really needs help their look useless, Sad part is the price for their incompetence is life's.

 

 

Edited October 12, 2013 by lfcdude

[Polar Maritime]

Cyclone Phailin: Mass evacuations in eastern India.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-24487130

Edited October 12, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[radiohead]

Winds down to ~130kt now and pressure up to ~926 as its undergoing an eyewall replacement and getting land interaction as it gets close to landfall. Still very severe winds and of course the storm surge is already in motion for some time.

 

The good news is that it does seem like they have managed to evacuted a lot of people from the coastal areas.

[Summer Sun]

Cyclone Phailin is making landfall now its hit Gopalpur with winds at 216kph 134mph

[Summer Sun]

Cyclone Phailin has killed at least 5 people so far

 

more than 500,000 evacuated

 

The cyclone has uprooted electricity poles and plunged the town of Gopalpur, the landfall point, into darkness.

[lfcdude]

http://www.ndtv.com/video/live/channel/ndtv24x7

 

 

For anyone who wants to watch Indian news coverage 

Edited October 12, 2013 by lfcdude

[Somerset Squall]

Well inland now, but still well wrapped and intense: