South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>

[Coast]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400

 

More warnings?

 

Still looks like yesterdays one Surrey, they will update in a couple of hours.

[snow raven]

 

GFS Op suggesting strongest winds will occur on the south coast of our region between midnight and 6 a.m Monday.

 

 

 

I hope that is the case (if it's going to happen, let's hope it's when most of us are tucked up in bed!)

 

Not only that, but there is always the hope that a tree will fall down on my train line in the early hours so I don't have to travel to work in it!  It's all well and good the warnings saying don't travel unless it's necessary, but you try telling that to my work...

Edited October 25, 2013 by snow raven

[Heisenberg]

Morning all,

 

What a horrid morning it is. But hey, at least its Friday....Got my little girls Bday tomorrow 9 years already...man time flies. and so will my conservatory roof if this storm tracks the way it currently is....

 

Keep safe everyone.

[Coast]

Morning all,

 

What a horrid morning it is. But hey, at least its Friday....Got my little girls Bday tomorrow 9 years already...man time flies. and so will my conservatory roof if this storm tracks the way it currently is....

 

Keep safe everyone.

 

Morning!

 

Have a good one tomorrow, do you have hoards of over-active kids coming around? 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning!

 

Have a good one tomorrow, do you have hoards of over-active kids coming around? 

 

Personally I love kids.. Being the oldest of 4 siblings and having to look after them and raise them or should I say help mum out   I love seeing children happy.. When my 6 year old brother has his mates round and they are going mental makes me smile.. My girlfriend has agreed with me to have about 6 children.. 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Surrey

[hernebaylooby]

Morning all,

 

What a horrid morning it is. But hey, at least its Friday....Got my little girls Bday tomorrow 9 years already...man time flies. and so will my conservatory roof if this storm tracks the way it currently is....

 

Keep safe everyone.

Have fun tomorrow! It was my eldests 9th last week I thought id take the stress out of it all by having a party away from the house where some underpaid school leaver could do everything for me but it turned out to be equally as stressful! I didnt have to clean up afterwards which was nice but I did nearly end up being knocked out with a bowling ball :/

Personally I love kids.. Being the oldest of 4 siblings and having to look after them and raise them or should I say help mum out   I love seeing children happy.. When my 6 year old brother has his mates round and they are going mental makes me smile.. My girlfriend has agreed with me to have about 6 children.. 

Wow you will be busy

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Have fun tomorrow! It was my eldests 9th last week I thought id take the stress out of it all by having a party away from the house where some underpaid school leaver could do everything for me but it turned out to be equally as stressful! I didnt have to clean up afterwards which was nice but I did nearly end up being knocked out with a bowling ball :/Wow you will be busy

 

I love being busy Better than sitting around doing the square root of nothing!

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

At least the wind might blow the fallen leaves away to save me keep sweeping them up !

.. Time for a coffee and a catch up on the latest for Sunday night/ Monday morning now :-)

[Heisenberg]

Thanks for the well wishes guys.

 

She is going to see Matilda in the west end tonight with a stay in a hotel near the theater with her mum tonight, then tomorrow I have 5 kids coming with us for dinner at TGI (which will cost me a small fortune) and then back to me where 3 of them will sleep over and my eldest is also having one of his mates staying over....

 

Popcorn, movies and Xbox (for the boys GTA 5 mad), so all in all a nice quiet evening....NOT

 

Sunday morning at 4am Im down in Leigh on Sea to run my bootsale and then out for dinner for my Dads 70th with the whole family. the kids are staying with them for a few days and im driving back to Hatfield on Sunday night....Might be an interesting journey home on the M25 and A1 eh

[Snowangel-MK]

So after a wet and windy Sunday it looks like we have the possibility of a 'Turbo Storm' early hours of Monday ......

Forecasters are watching for the development of a secondary, more southerly low. This low pressure has the potential to push a meteorological ‘Turbo’ button. So rather than just bringing wet and windy weather as it crosses the UK, it could step up several gears. If this happens (lots of upper air goings on, mixing with favourable lower level conditions, all coming together), there could be an intense period (less than 6 hours) of damaging winds (gusts over 80mph and severe gales) whizzing across the UK. That is the worrying bit.

Timings – Sunday night into early Monday morning

Strength – potential is there, for this Storm

Path – Still varying, and possibility it goes further south, over France, so worst misses UK

However- the latest run (as of 0700Z) shows the English Channel coastal counties being hit between 9pm and 6am Sunday into Monday. Running from Isles of Scilly 9-11pm across Isle of Wight towards Kent and Essex by 3-5am. These details will be updated with each model run, keep an eye on the NetWeather Watch.

Published on 25th October 2013 08:02 Updated: 25th October 2013 08:02

[Snowangel-MK]

They used a term on GMTV weather

 

"explosive cyclogenesis"  ( often associated with major winter storms and occurs when surface pressure falls by more than about 24 millibars per day. )

 

New term for me to learn  

What is cyclogenesis?

This is the obvious starting point. Basically, the term ‘cyclogenesis’ means the creation of cyclones (or depressions, as we better know them). This is in the same way that ‘frontogensis’ is used to describe the creation of weather fronts. All Atlantic depressions have some form of cyclogenesis, ranging from wave depressions, to the modifications of ex-hurricanes. In the interests of this discussion, I’m going to concentrate on those depressions which develop from frontal waves, as I reckon they’re the ones which are the most captivating.

What is explosive cyclogenesis?

This is basically the same as normal cyclogenesis, but it happens very rapidly, and very vigorously. That is, a depression can seemingly form from nothing in a very short space of time, often becoming a very vicious storm in a matter of hours.

The general term used for these rapidly deepening depressions, is a ‘bomb’. The strict definitions of this, is a low pressure centre which deepens by 24mb in 24hrs, or less. These happen frequently throughout the Atlantic, and several times a year, we see this happening pretty close to the UK. It’s only in recent years that such things have been better understood, and indeed, before the 1987 storm across southern England, meteorological models hardly had the signature of explosive cyclogenesis incorporated within them.

The 1987 storm in southern England was, of course, the classic example of such phenomenon, with a monster storm exploding onto the scene, when just 24hrs earlier, it hardly existed. Other noteworthy events include the Christmas storm of 1997, which brought large amounts of damage to Northern Ireland, northern England and north Wales, and also the impressive storm around 10th October 2004, which flooded parts of the south-west of England and the Isles Of Scilly.

How to spot explosive cyclogenesis

There are many ways available to the forecaster, which are used to spot the rapid development of nasty depressions. These range from the obvious model outputs, to more short-range use of satellite imagery. Personally, you can’t beat using satellite images to watch a storm which is beginning to develop, but that’s of little use if you need to forecast the event long in advance.

[chilly milly]

I can see the sun!  Ner ner, ner, ner ner. :D

[Heisenberg]

What about our neck of the woods Ali?

[Steve C]

Nervously awaiting the Met Office warnings...

[anything-but]

When are they usually updated?

[Summer of 76]

about 11.20am onwards

 

you can subscribe to them on their site and have them delivered to your mail box

Sometimes they can be later depending on the situation and number,

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=se&fcTime=1382918400

 

It will be interesting see if they change the matrix as that will give an idea of confidence on the track

Edited October 25, 2013 by chris mantle

[london-snow]

So after a wet and windy Sunday it looks like we have the possibility of a 'Turbo Storm' early hours of Monday ......Forecasters are watching for the development of a secondary, more southerly low. This low pressure has the potential to push a meteorological ‘Turbo’ button. So rather than just bringing wet and windy weather as it crosses the UK, it could step up several gears. If this happens (lots of upper air goings on, mixing with favourable lower level conditions, all coming together), there could be an intense period (less than 6 hours) of damaging winds (gusts over 80mph and severe gales) whizzing across the UK. That is the worrying bit.Timings – Sunday night into early Monday morningStrength – potential is there, for this StormPath – Still varying, and possibility it goes further south, over France, so worst misses UKHowever- the latest run (as of 0700Z) shows the English Channel coastal counties being hit between 9pm and 6am Sunday into Monday. Running from Isles of Scilly 9-11pm across Isle of Wight towards Kent and Essex by 3-5am. These details will be updated with each model run, keep an eye on the NetWeather Watch. Published on 25th October 2013 08:02 Updated: 25th October 2013 08:02image.jpg

Those timings are disastrous for me MK..I work on the railway and am out in the open unfortunately i don't finish my shift until 2am monday morning. Have a funny feeling it's not going to go to plan work wise. If track and intensity stays on course then please all stay in and safe. Grounds already saturated it won't take much to cause major problems.

[Snowangel-MK]

What about our neck of the woods Ali?

The main concern is if we will have any woods left by later Monday to stick our necks into lol This second system has a very complex set up, if the area of low pressure catches the jet stream just right (subject to its position and timing) we have the potential for a really severe and damaging storm across this region. As things stand right now we are looking at gail force winds and some very heavy rain !

[snow raven]

Nervously awaiting the Met Office warnings...

I'm nervous, but bizarrely excited too...  is that normal?  

[Steve C]

I'm nervous, but bizarrely excited too...  is that normal?  

I'd say that in the general population it's most definitely abnormal, but here, well anything goes! 

[Tamara]

The ECM is a lot worse than the GFS. If this comes off then it is going to cause a lot of problems

 

 

 

Then this...

 

 

The winds packing in on the southern/south western part of the low are very bad indeed.  Assuming this track is correct then larger areas of the region are involved. However, there is still disagreement in the details amongst the computer models...

Edited October 25, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[hernebaylooby]

I think i'm going to wear out the refresh button

[Snowangel-MK]

I'm nervous, but bizarrely excited too...  is that normal?  

No... But then are any of us 'normal' in here ?

Just hope the timing is early hours of Monday and the worst of it hits before 6am when most people are in bed !

[BB1979]

Those timings are disastrous for me MK..

I work on the railway and am out in the open unfortunately i don't finish my shift until 2am monday morning. Have a funny feeling it's not going to go to plan work wise.

If track and intensity stays on course then please all stay in and safe. Grounds already saturated it won't take much to cause major problems.

Please not another 'London Bridge' Monday morning like the one we had this week! )

[snow raven]

Please not another 'London Bridge' Monday morning like the one we had this week! )

What happened?  If I make it into work on Monday morning, I'll be travelling to and from London Bridge instead of Waterloo East...