South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>

[EML Network]

I really think this whole thing is being blown out of all proportion (pardon the pun). 

 

I recall several occasions in the past where the wind has gusted to 80 MPH along the South Coast here without there being any real structural damage a few tiles here and there blown off the odd roof and an occasional fallen tree. 

 

I remember going down to the beach when we had wind right on the sea front of close to 90 MPH gusts and I had no problems standing up, although the spray coming off the sea hurt my face as it drove into my cheeks. 

 

I have no idea why this has become so frenzied, by the time we get to Monday afternoon we're all going to be wondering what the fuss was all about. 

 

100 MPH gusts and upward are when you need to start worrying or sustained wind speed of upward of 50 MPH for 2-3 hours or more, anything less than that is not going to cause the sort of armageddon type situation everyone seems to think it's going to. 

 

The Met Office are doing an amazing job with this storm, they are neither over hyping or under playing it, hat's off to them for knowing exactly  how to deal with the public. their use of the English language is exemplilairirlyiirlyl ;-)

[2810lollypop]

Exactly. Maybe some folk on the east coast might like to swop places This is not an 'ordinary' autumn low even though yesterday I was closer to thinking that it could still end up being so.

 

 

 I think that by early to mid afternoon the worst will hopefully be moving out of the way - so hopefully with luck we might all get out and about by this time

 

Lets hope that things are as much in one piece as possible. It might be as well to make lunch a bit later rather than earlier - but good luck with your daughters birthday and I hope it is enjoyable despite the hideous weather, and take care in the town

Thank you Tamara ,you too x

[Tamara]

I really think this whole thing is being blown out of all proportion (pardon the pun). 

 

I recall several occasions in the past where the wind has gusted to 80 MPH along the South Coast here without there being any real structural damage a few tiles here and there blown off the odd roof and an occasional fallen tree. 

 

I remember going down to the beach when we had wind right on the sea front of close to 90 MPH gusts and I had no problems standing up, although the spray coming off the sea hurt my face as it drove into my cheeks. 

 

I have no idea why this has become so frenzied, by the time we get to Monday afternoon we're all going to be wondering what the fuss was all about. 

 

100 MPH gusts and upward are when you need to start worrying or sustained wind speed of upward of 50 MPH for 2-3 hours or more, anything less than that is not going to cause the sort of armageddon type situation everyone seems to think it's going to. 

 

The Met Office are doing an amazing job with this storm, they are neither over hyping or under playing it, hat's off to them for knowing exactly  how to deal with the public. their use of the English language is exemplilairirlyiirlyl ;-)

You may be surprised to hear that usually I would agree completely with this. Wind speeds and low pressure systems have indeed been over hyped and exaggerated along the coast here. However, I differ with that opinion on this occasion and I think that this low could easily live up to its expectations

 

Despite saying that, I certainly hope that we are indeed wondering what the fuss was about by Monday afternoon however - and would be very eager and happy to say so and be proved wrong...

Edited October 25, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Captain Shortwave]

Exactly. Maybe some folk on the east coast might like to swop places This is not an 'ordinary' autumn low even though yesterday I was closer to thinking that it could still end up being so.

Does 4 years in Southampton count then , never had any wind issues, unless a curry at 2am counts 

Back in ye olde days where zonality was the norm we got depressions moving through which had windspeeds similar to the ones shown at the moment. The event as it currently stands is probably on average a once every 2 year event. Also worth noting that northern England and Scotland get events worse than this once or twice a year yet there is barely any coverage.

A day or so back the models were suggesting potential force 10/11 mean windspeeds with the low being modelled below 960mb. Now it has been reduced in intensity and is now just a case of Gales with severe gales on the south eastern coastline. 

Problem with these events as I don't find them exciting at all, either disappointingly boring or cause carnage. This low looks more likely to fit the former in my eyes.

Unless the NAVGEM is right

Ok a good number of GFS ens members are worse than the GFS/UKMO and GEM ops

Edited October 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[2810lollypop]

I really think this whole thing is being blown out of all proportion (pardon the pun). 

 

I recall several occasions in the past where the wind has gusted to 80 MPH along the South Coast here without there being any real structural damage a few tiles here and there blown off the odd roof and an occasional fallen tree. 

 

I remember going down to the beach when we had wind right on the sea front of close to 90 MPH gusts and I had no problems standing up, although the spray coming off the sea hurt my face as it drove into my cheeks. 

 

I have no idea why this has become so frenzied, by the time we get to Monday afternoon we're all going to be wondering what the fuss was all about. 

 

100 MPH gusts and upward are when you need to start worrying or sustained wind speed of upward of 50 MPH for 2-3 hours or more, anything less than that is not going to cause the sort of armageddon type situation everyone seems to think it's going to. 

 

The Met Office are doing an amazing job with this storm, they are neither over hyping or under playing it, hat's off to them for knowing exactly  how to deal with the public. their use of the English language is exemplilairirlyiirlyl ;-)

I agree with you to some degree ,but to me it worries me that the ground is so saturated . The met office has gusts for hastings around 67mph at about 3 in the morning on monday. I suppose time will tell & i do think that it would be wise to be prepared . ive cleared my garden furniture away has everyone else ??

[Tamara]

Does 4 years in Southampton count then , never had any wind issues, unless a curry at 2am counts 

Back in ye olde days where zonality was the norm we got depressions moving through which had windspeeds similar to the ones shown at the moment. The event as it currently stands is probably on average a once every 2 year event. Also worth noting that northern England and Scotland get events worse than this once or twice a year yet there is barely any coverage.

A day or so back the models were suggesting potential force 10/11 mean windspeeds with the low being modelled below 960mb. Now it has been reduced in intensity and is now just a case of Gales with severe gales on the south eastern coastline. 

Problem with these events as I don't find them exciting at all, either disappointingly boring or cause carnage. This low looks more likely to fit the former in my eyes.

Unless the NAVGEM is right

I seem to remember you were less than happy with the weather just a week or so ago with that shortwave that sat over the Benelux countries and threatened a washout to Great Yarmouth . That was a fine spell compared to this 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Tamara]

I agree with you to some degree ,but to me it worries me that the ground is so saturated . The met office has gusts for hastings around 67mph at about 3 in the morning on monday. I suppose time will tell & i do think that it would be wise to be prepared . ive cleared my garden furniture away has everyone else ??

I think we will see those provisional gust speeds increase as we go through the weeekend. It it was just 67mph I would be less concerned because that is not unusual

Edited October 25, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[london-snow]

The rail company who i work for have already put out warnings to customers about the liklihood of disruption owing to severe weather on monday. Will try uploading a photo of our passanger screen later on or tomorrow.

[Amanzi]

Having been through 6 hurricanes and numerous tropical storms and depressions when I lived in Florida, I can tell you that violent wind gusts and sustained winds are not much fun. Don't get me wrong my love of all things weatherly (yes that is a word in my book) where born from tracking and learning about said hurricanes.Even have a hurricane weather symbol tattoo . I have  been through numerous storm warnings and watching people ignore them because "the last one was just a bunch of hype", has lead me to learn a hard lesson. I did ignore a warning once and ended up with garden furniture flying through my living room window... You have no idea how much damage a plastic garden chair can do if it is hurled at a plate glass window at 80mph!  I do find myself rambling here, moral of the story is. Take a prudent course without panic. Remove anything from your yard if it could possibly turn into a projectile! Stay safe all ... oh and please don't leave animals outside. Puppys and kittys tend not to enjoy the saying raining cats and dogs. 

[P-M]

Does 4 years in Southampton count then , never had any wind issues, unless a curry at 2am counts 

Back in ye olde days where zonality was the norm we got depressions moving through which had windspeeds similar to the ones shown at the moment. The event as it currently stands is probably on average a once every 2 year event. Also worth noting that northern England and Scotland get events worse than this once or twice a year yet there is barely any coverage.

A day or so back the models were suggesting potential force 10/11 mean windspeeds with the low being modelled below 960mb. Now it has been reduced in intensity and is now just a case of Gales with severe gales on the south eastern coastline. 

Problem with these events as I don't find them exciting at all, either disappointingly boring or cause carnage. This low looks more likely to fit the former in my eyes.

Unless the NAVGEM is right

 

 

 

Just popped in to read your excitement and yes I can confirm that we have regularly had wind storms which have very little coverage but didn't really cause any damage anyway.  It was common a few years back to have warnings of 60+mph winds and some pretty stormy conditions although the past couple of years up here have been relatively quiet.  

 

I think in 2011 we had frequent gusts in excess of 55mph in one storm across populated Tyne and Wear - Cumbria was being hit with gusts of over 70mph and no real damage was done.  Keep safe anyway though - if this bombs and intensifies then it wont be pleasant all the same!  

[Captain Shortwave]

I seem to remember you were less than happy with the weather just a week or so ago with that shortwave that sat over the Benelux countries and threatened a washout to Great Yarmouth . That was a fine spell compared to this 

I didn't like the sounds of 96 hours of persistent rain that the models were showing. Luckily it was just a couple of cool cloudy days with heavy rain during the night. There is quite a lot of standing water on the fields already, not a good sign as it won't be leaving until about March next year.

 

The rail company who i work for have already put out warnings to customers about the liklihood of disruption owing to severe weather on monday. Will try uploading a photo of our passanger screen later on or tomorrow.

There is going to be plenty of "leaves on the line" 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Snowangel-MK]

 

There is going to be plenty of "leaves on the line" 

 

At least the autumn colours have been nice while it lasted, I just wonder what this view will look like on Monday afternoon.....

 

 

 

 

...hopefully I will still see trees even if they are stripped bare of leaves 

[Sussex Jules]

Looking at the other threads that are talking about Monday I am getting a bit fed up with the 'Southern bashing' that seems to be going on.

[Guest bjaykent]

Looking at the other threads that are talking about Monday I am getting a bit fed up with the 'Southern bashing' that seems to be going on.

 

Never mind Jules it will all be virtual toilet paper come Monday evening, personally can't wait for it to be over whatever it brings so that I can start looking forward to winter again!

Edited October 25, 2013 by bjaykent

[Wet'n'Dry]

Looking at the other threads that are talking about Monday I am getting a bit fed up with the 'Southern bashing' that seems to be going on.

 

If it's envy then let them crow on about it, the fact is we are looking at a scenario that can damage property and take lives.

 

http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2012-10-10/the-great-storm-25-years-on/

[Snowangel-MK]

I really think this whole thing is being blown out of all proportion (pardon the pun). 

 

I know things could still change between now and Monday but the track hasn't changed much today and it will take a lot of weakening to see this not being a problem of some kind at the moment.... the Met O has my location down for wind gusts of 64 mph during the early hours of Monday morning...I doubt I will sleep though that 

[Bluebreezer54]

Aside from all the talk of the Sun/Mon storm, cant believe how warm it feels today.

 

Certainly is here in Croydon.

 

Tom.

Indeed Tom. Quite a breeze blowing today but Northolt reported 18.4c this afternoon, and the overnight minimum was 13.0c, the previous night it fell to 3.3c. Quite a contrast.

 

Although I am in some ways looking forward to a decent Autumn storm, it is tempered by the knowledge that some folk will undoubtably be adversely affected. Stay safe people.

[Sussex Jules]

I know things could still change between now and Monday but the track hasn't changed much today and it will take a lot of weakening to see this not being a problem of some kind at the moment.... the Met O has my location down for wind gusts of 64 mph during the early hours of Monday morning...I doubt I will sleep though that 

 

Even with your fancy new mattress MK?!

[Tamara]

ECM t72 (Monday lunchtime)...no comment..

 

[john pike]

hi all

 

be back soon with the fax charts

[anything-but]

ECM t72 (Monday lunchtime)...no comment..

 

 

 

I can do that for you Tamara....."%£$$^"$^$^%^£"!!!"  

[Snowangel-MK]

Even with your fancy new mattress MK?!

 

We'll probably be sleeping on the new one with the old one sandwiched on top of us just in case the roof blows off......(only joking) 

 

I have battened down my hatches though and have made some sensible 'emergency' plans  

[Jayces]

ECM t72 (Monday lunchtime)...no comment..

 

Good clothes drying weather then?

[Wet'n'Dry]

ECM t72 (Monday lunchtime)...no comment..

 

 

OMG! the bomb is well and truly primed!!

[tinybill]

hi all  2morrow is a  day to batten down the garden  me  thinks!!!