South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>

[2810lollypop]

Ive just had a nose on the met office site & it has brought the wind gusts slightly down for us in hastings ( it was updated at 9pm ) plenty of time for change i suppose either way ??

[john pike]

hi bob

 

also remember what we said earlier about waiting until tomorrow pm for the latest charts then

 

still think that would be the best bet

 

not saying we should ignore these charts now but confidence should be a lot higher tomorrow night

 

glad you saw the jet chart

[JennyJane1]

have people been  panic buying yet?

[john pike]

Yes so do I .....

image.jpg

..... thankfully we don't have 'killer' phone boxes on the streets now !

 

Yes so do I .....

image.jpg

..... thankfully we don't have 'killer' phone boxes on the streets now !

 

cor thats a big mobile phone

 

oh sorry they were that size back then

[Jax]

have people been  panic buying yet?

hope not, I want to panic buy 4 pints of milk, some bailieys (large bottle of course), some beer and a fresh loaf.

 

 

that should do me if the world goes to hand basket mode.

[snowbob]

I remember the 87 storm

Power cuts and going to school the next day was only 10

( bless )

Live very close to a place called Shirley hills which was a local wood.

Was practically flattened.

And remember for the next couple of years playing in the sand and mud holes of the uprooted trees in parks in my local area.

There were ditches and fallen tree stumps with there roots around for years after

Seems quite nostalgic that it might happen again.

But also a little bit scary because I won't forget the noise that night. Very very angry wind

[john pike]

hi jenny jane

 

no and do not intend to

 

although no doubt people seeing hurricane on the way in certain papers will

[snowbob]

hi bob

also remember what we said earlier about waiting until tomorrow pm for the latest charts then

still think that would be the best bet

not saying we should ignore these charts now but confidence should be a lot higher tomorrow night

glad you saw the jet chart

yeah your right mate

You still going with the speed you thought earlier

One thing I will say john is that your spot on with the 12z mate

Nice one

[fluid dynamic]

have people been  panic buying yet?

 

i expect when tomorrow evening's news goes on about a big storm, panic mode will kick in, and the supermarkets will be very busy.

 

Personally, i dont like shopping much, so i dont think i will go. Might help the local pub make sure it can get its deliveries though

[Team Jo]

87 for me included witnessing my neighbours Toupe flying off, all the slate tiles showering down into the garden off the roof and and a Turtle shaped sandpit flying through the garden. We lost the whole fence on all sides and I remember the glass in the windows facing south west flexing in the wind, so we all camped in sleeping bags and duvets in the middle of the living room.Think we had a power out for about 25-48hrs?. Ironically I'm back in the same house at the moment, except there's double glazing now, and I won't be asking my Mum to read me a Noddy and Big ears story when it gets super stormy; I'll probably be out like a fool in It with the camera getting the OH to make me a stiff drink!

[john pike]

hi mate

 

same thoughts yes

 

but tomorrow for that

 

re the 12z lets hope the colder trend starts to gather pace sooner rather than later

[snow raven]

have people been  panic buying yet?

That only happens if a flake of snow is forecast 4 days in advance

[Snowangel-MK]

have people been panic buying yet?

Only chocolate and booze but nothing to do with the storm just some cracking supermarket special offers that I didn't want to sell out before I got mine ! Edited October 25, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[2810lollypop]

have people been  panic buying yet?

Im sure they will be tomorrow ! Also i noticed james madden updated his page on friday .Guess what ? October storms & november snow & very cold bonfire night ! Met office do actually give next week quite a change in temperature ,especially at night . Cant wait for all this storm stuff to be over & get back to the winter madness . Interesting times ahead  !

[Jax]

That only happens if a flake of snow is forecast 4 days in advance

BWHAAHAHA!!!!

 

Forecast:

Snow will blanket the country by Thursday

 

 

 

(lets see what happenhs now)

[JennyJane1]

i'm more worried having found out that the strongest 1987 gust was 122mph at GORLESTON which is right by me.

[Tom Jarvis]

this just posted by fergieweather

 

fergieweather

fergieweather

Indeed. We consider sting jet potential increasingly likely as storm exits eastwards meaning backwash winds could be most problematic. Incidentally, all models now have a good grasp of the initiating perturbation and exhibit just minor variation at that juncture. Consequently, Ops Centre note higher than usual confidence on broad story even at this range albeit range of outcomes in MOGREPS-15, EC etc still needs emphasis. I said on air tonight that one area I think will get hammered is contiguous to Lyme Bay (Dorset, S Somerset) and new high-res output doesn't alter my view.On issue of tree damage: history shows us 50 or even 45kt gusts ample to damage/truncate/topple mature trees in some situations and especially oaks with pre-existing weaknesses. Conspiring to this likely outcome on Mon is pre-conditioning of weak trees with Sunday's winds and equally, soil moisture status (EURO4 and other output adds widely 20-40mm Sat PM-Mon AM), thus reducing anchorage. So any suggestion of 60kts being insufficient to topple trees is way wide of proven reality.

 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[EJA]

I don't know if its panic buying but went to tescos after work and there was only blue milk ( they normaly have a full stock lol.......)However i am wondering whether I should stock up on some torches?????

[john pike]

hi tom

 

thanks for that

 

the sting jet theory is the bit that concerns me as well

 

although its very hard to predict

 

the tree situation is worrying due to very wet conditions now

 

anyway going to wait until tomorrow afternoons fax charts and ukmo charts now

 

will post them around 6pm

 

lets hope they are all wrong now

 

wouldnt bet against it though

[throwoff]

I stashed up on torches and checked.my badage supply.

Will clear garden tomorrow and have some thick card I will be taping over the back door (single glazed) as my yard area is a right wind trap and a loose branch could easily smash it.

[Mark Neal.]

Evening all. So glad it's the weekend been a very busy week. Hope you all enjoy yours. As much as storm potentials are exciting when danger to life and everyday stuff things then get sceptical. It looks like a nasty one, going to be an interesting few days ahead. Stay safe all

[john pike]

hi mark

 

i agree with you

 

being weather enthusiasts we all want to see extreme weather

 

but then when damage and potential for injuries come up it makes it an awkward feeling

 

as none of us want to see that side.

 

i suppose none of us can change this whatever we feel

[Tom Jarvis]

jp do you think the met may release a red warning for our area 

[john pike]

hi tom

 

i reckon they will

 

i think it will be released tomorrow afternoon when they are more confident of the track and jet direction

 

there is a chance they may hold on until sunday morning as well

 

glad i am not in their shoes at present

[Tom Jarvis]

hi tom

 

i reckon they will

 

i think it will be released tomorrow afternoon when they are more confident of the track and jet direction

 

there is a chance they may hold on until sunday morning as well

 

glad i am not in their shoes at present

ye the 18Z has deepened the low as well which isn't good