South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>

[tinybill]

all i can say keep safe i lived through the first great storm that was scary ,so i bet there will be a run on candies  this  morning this monster looks worse than that one

[Great Plum]

Have fun AS - I will let you know reigate's fate!

[EML Network]

I wish everyone would stop over reacting to this, the way some of you are posting you'd think we're going to get hit by 150 MPH winds. 

 

80 MPH gusts for a few hours was common place in the 90's and 2000's for many with a least one event every other year on average.

 

Where has all this talk of 100 MPH Gusts come from ?? 

 

It's just going to be very windy ...that's all...NOT a Hurricane...and NOT a super storm !!

 

a 965 mb Low is nothing out of the ordinary, I doubt there has been a single year gone by where we haven't had at least one 965 mb low crossing the UK. 

 

And I doubt this low will get any deeper than 965 !!

[Jimmyh]

I think that is a little harsh. Windy yes, storm force yes. Likely disruption yes. I think the watch word here is keep calm. There is potential for powerful winds.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I wish everyone would stop over reacting to this, the way some of you are posting you'd think we're going to get hit by 150 MPH winds. 

 

80 MPH gusts for a few hours was common place in the 90's and 2000's for many with a least one event every other year on average.

 

Where has all this talk of 100 MPH Gusts come from ?? 

 

It's just going to be very windy ...that's all...NOT a Hurricane...and NOT a super storm !!

 

a 965 mb Low is nothing out of the ordinary, I doubt there has been a single year gone by where we haven't had at least one 965 mb low crossing the UK. 

 

And I doubt this low will get any deeper than 965 !!

 

80mph is a concern mate, especially when I have people working in 10 story OPEN building sites in London... It only takes for that wind to be funneled through the buildings and straight through the open sides and take out materials with it... And you try and sit in a crane in that weather 15 stories up trying to lift 1 tonne pallet loads of wallboard and plasterboard... Thats the reason why I am concerned...

[tadpole]

Can't you go and evacuate her so she could stay with you until the danger's past? For your own peace of mind as much as anything. I'm surprised local councils aren't making arrangements for elderly people just to get them out of harm's way, but I suppose we just exist to pay their pension plans.

 

Wish I could, unfortunately she is in a wheelchair since having a stroke and I live in a home with 2 staircases and carrying her between rooms and up and down stairs is beyond us these days. She elected to have her home adapted rather than move into a care home or move back to London and due to work, moving to her isn't an option.

She had the stroke during the snow event in November '10. She didn't notice the temperature dropping so she got hypothermia, then a blood clot=stroke.

She has a great bunch of carers who visit, and good neighbours.

 

Mum loves wet wild windy weather and will probably be up all night, wheelchair by the windows watching the sea. She does the same with snow.

[Sussex Jules]

I wish everyone would stop over reacting to this, the way some of you are posting you'd think we're going to get hit by 150 MPH winds.  80 MPH gusts for a few hours was common place in the 90's and 2000's for many with a least one event every other year on average. Where has all this talk of 100 MPH Gusts come from ??  It's just going to be very windy ...that's all...NOT a Hurricane...and NOT a super storm !! a 965 mb Low is nothing out of the ordinary, I doubt there has been a single year gone by where we haven't had at least one 965 mb low crossing the UK.  And I doubt this low will get any deeper than 965 !!

You might want to have a word with the Met Office then.

[Guest bjaykent]

I wish everyone would stop over reacting to this, the way some of you are posting you'd think we're going to get hit by 150 MPH winds. 

 

80 MPH gusts for a few hours was common place in the 90's and 2000's for many with a least one event every other year on average.

 

Where has all this talk of 100 MPH Gusts come from ?? 

 

It's just going to be very windy ...that's all...NOT a Hurricane...and NOT a super storm !!

 

a 965 mb Low is nothing out of the ordinary, I doubt there has been a single year gone by where we haven't had at least one 965 mb low crossing the UK. 

 

And I doubt this low will get any deeper than 965 !!

Quite honestly I think you would do better to post this here

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

 

The regional thread has stayed calm and relatively free of these kind of posts for the last few days, I think mot people are happier to take the advice of JP, John Holmes or indeed the Met Office.

 

This sort of post will just cause fallout and confuse people.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

This from southwest trains:

 

Severe Weather Warning 28 October

 

The Met Office is projecting that severe weather will affect areas of Southern England on Monday 28 October.

The risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and equipment is high. These conditions present risks to the railway from localised flooding, fallen trees and debris on the tracks.

Our maintenance teams are visiting our high-risk sites over the weekend to carry out mitigation work for both flooding and fallen trees. We have also arranged for additional staff to be present across the network at key locations.

All areas of our network are subject to these conditions with the highest risk areas being on the lines between Weymouth and Basingstoke via Southampton and between Portsmouth and Guildford.

[Sussex Jules]

Following on from Surrey's post about trains. Southern are sitting on the fence and saying check their website Sunday afternoon but they are expecting disruption.

[2810lollypop]

Ive just had a look on the met office site & for the past few days it was showing that this storm would be over by lunchtime ,its now showing that these strong gusts will last all day .oh er

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Ive just had a look on the met office site & for the past few days it was showing that this storm would be over by lunchtime ,its now showing that these strong gusts will last all day .oh er

 

I saw this on the GFS too, it wants to keep the low over us for longer

[Coast]

Ive just had a look on the met office site & for the past few days it was showing that this storm would be over by lunchtime ,its now showing that these strong gusts will last all day .oh er

 

It does seem to start a little later now and go through Monday morning, NMM winds gusts have the South coast getting battered:

 

 

 

This isn't looking nice at all.

[Coast]

I wish everyone would stop over reacting to this, the way some of you are posting you'd think we're going to get hit by 150 MPH winds. 

 

And I doubt this low will get any deeper than 965 !!

 

I think you're kidding yourself that this doesn't have the potential to be very hazardous to structures and people, I wish I was as confident as you to say it wouldn't and I'd love to be proved wrong and it all came to nothing, but all current evidence points to it being otherwise and the best people can do is be aware, act sensibly and prepare for problems rather than bury their heads  

[Guest bjaykent]

Ive just had a look on the met office site & for the past few days it was showing that this storm would be over by lunchtime ,its now showing that these strong gusts will last all day .oh er

I really thought earlier in the week that this would disappear before the weekend but looking at the cross model agreement this morning it would seem reasonable now to assume that we will get a storm, how severe? we will have to see but I certainly think everyone should consider alternative arrangements for Monday if they can now.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

We are now also as I type entering the "reliable" time frame... Yes 6 hours out things can and do change... but with all the models now coming onboard including the NAE it's fair to say.. that Monday, will be wet...Windy.. and at some point probably something to look back on and go WOW

 

I would also like to note how I think global warming is playing a HUGE part on our weather now... This storm.. would be nowhere near as powerful or probs would not even occur would it be for the really warm air we have around us.. and warm seas... Plus no idea why the jet is so powerful but I am sure global warming has something to do with it..

 

But will our Government say that when they got a tree through the houses of Parliament?  Will they F!

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

 

Seems to me most overnight model runs have the track of this low ever so slightly further north now. Also they seem to have delayed the onset of strongest winds, for our region, until late Monday morning/early afternoon but the results pretty much the same.

 

A very unpleasant Monday morning rush-hour awaits and still very strong, potentially damaging winds continue into the afternoon.

 

If anything this delayed timing of strongest winds will cause even more problems, with the amount of traffic and pedestrians around, as opposed to the storm arriving in the early hours of Monday morning.

Again, as stated earlier, some of us should be careful what we wish for.

 

Tom.

Edited October 26, 2013 by Kentish CZ

[Jax]

Morning all

 

not ventured out yet but looking out it is breezy, some spots of rain and rather cloudy @ 14oC

[Coast]

Keep an eye on wave and weather data for The Channel etc here:

 

http://www.channelcoast.org/data_management/real_time_data/charts/

[stainesbloke]

It's a nice morning here, bright and breezy, current temp is a mild 15C. Enjoy the weekend people and try not to worry too much about Monday, all we can do is take sensible precautions. The rest is up to Nature!

[Jax]

Trying to decide if I should put the washing out or not when it is done, looking at the radar and todays forecast it appears to be an improving picture, also need to venture out and take a DVD back to the library and do some shopping so hoping it will improve soon (then off to the park with the camera onroute to the next village to see my folks).

[cobbett]

We are now also as I type entering the "reliable" time frame... Yes 6 hours out things can and do change... but with all the models now coming onboard including the NAE it's fair to say.. that Monday, will be wet...Windy.. and at some point probably something to look back on and go WOW

 

I would also like to note how I think global warming is playing a HUGE part on our weather now... This storm.. would be nowhere near as powerful or probs would not even occur would it be for the really warm air we have around us.. and warm seas... Plus no idea why the jet is so powerful but I am sure global warming has something to do with it..

 

But will our Government say that when they got a tree through the houses of Parliament?  Will they F!

Hope they don't - my energy bills are high enough thanks without an increase in green taxes to pacify the warmists, but thats another debate !

[Meggy]

80mph is a concern mate, especially when I have people working in 10 story OPEN building sites in London... It only takes for that wind to be funneled through the buildings and straight through the open sides and take out materials with it... And you try and sit in a crane in that weather 15 stories up trying to lift 1 tonne pallet loads of wallboard and plasterboard... Thats the reason why I am concerned...

I was working in London during the Burns Day storm in 1990 and trying to get home safely. I had to walk to several tube stations and the wind howling between the tops of the high buildings was very scary indeed. like some kind of giant hoover above my head. I can quite understand why no-one would want to work up there in that kind of wind!

[alexisj9]

I saw this on the GFS too, it wants to keep the low over us for longer

It was starting to do that yesterday, it seems even more noticable today grrr, hope it goes back to being a quick straight over thing.

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Its a tad windy in Ippy this morning.

But there is some patches of blue and the sun is trying to peep through.

I keep looking around the garden to see what needs to be tied down or stowed away.

Kite flying anyone?