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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Here you go, folks - a new thread...

 

Old: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78128-south-east-east-anglia-regional-weather-discussion-111013/page-46#entry2812379

Edited by A Boy Named Sue
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Still rattling down The Channel currently and the IoW in the firing line:

 

 

Solent WSW 38 mph, gust 49 mph

St Catherine's Point WSW 40 mph, gust 53 mph

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/observations/

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

Morning all. Posted Image
 
Just looking at XCWeather for Monday. It currently shows a storm which is intensifying as it exits us. This shows land gales over a large part of the east of our area and severe land gales over north Norfolk. Definitely notable if it happens.
 
Winds off the Norfolk coast expected to be force 10, or 11. Again notable.

post-11059-0-54292700-1382520968_thumb.ppost-11059-0-84702500-1382520985_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

The GEM model has the depression showing at least as severe as GFS to my eyes.post-11059-0-68552100-1382521919_thumb.p ECM is not really showing it at all. It merely shows an unsettled westerly flow, with low pressure tracking to the north of Scotland at the same time. However ECM is showing a very disturbed pattern afterwards, with major depressions in the vicinity.

 

One thing for sure, it'll be a bumpy ride coming up!

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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

Morning all. Posted Image

 

Just looking at XCWeather for Monday. It currently shows a storm which is intensifying as it exits us. This shows land gales over a large part of the east of our area and severe land gales over north Norfolk. Definitely notable if it happens.

 

Winds off the Norfolk coast expected to be force 10, or 11. Again notable.

Posted Image10 Monday.pngPosted Image13 Monday.png

Thank goodness the winds are from the Southwest and the tides are neap rather than spring.  If that follows the ECM route Northern France will cop the worst of it and we'll have a Northeasterly, will be gales but not severe gales

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

Thank goodness the winds are from the Southwest and the tides are neap rather than spring.  If that follows the ECM route Northern France will cop the worst of it and we'll have a Northeasterly, will be gales but not severe gales

I must admit your post confused me, so I revisited the models. Netweather's ECM is from yesterday still. Posted Image I've looked at Meteociel and can see what you mean.

 

UKMO is a halfway house as well. The BBC forecaster has just mentioned they are looking at Monday too.

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Posted
  • Location: Swale, Kent
  • Location: Swale, Kent

Woke up at half 5 to torrential rain and blowing a gale, lovely tucked up in bed listening to it Posted Image

 

Found this http://realityweather.eu/advanced-caution-of-extremely-strong-wind-flooding-potential-some-possibility-of-a-very-nasty-wind-event/

 

Don't know about the accuracy (but I do love a good storm).  However, I liked the headline on it, sounds like me when I've eaten a tin of beans Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

The GEM model has the depression showing at least as severe as GFS to my eyes.

Posted Imageairpressure.135.png

 

ECM is not really showing it at all. It merely shows an unsettled westerly flow, with low pressure tracking to the north of Scotland at the same time. However ECM is showing a very disturbed pattern afterwards, with major depressions in the vicinity.

 

One thing for sure, it'll be a bumpy ride coming up!

That chart you posted of the GEM shows a central pressure of about 960, I think the GFS is showing about 970, UKMO 975 and ECM 990.  All windy, but progressively less so in the order of the models.

 

The GEM Chart means I'd be watching my roof......

 

ECM is showing strong pressure rises to our South after that, just doesn't look right to me.....

 

 

Actually, it runs a 995mb low from well west of the Scillies, along the channel, no deepening at all and it just disappears after hitting the mainland.  As I say, doesn't look right to me

Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather
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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

I must admit your post confused me, so I revisited the models. Netweather's ECM is from yesterday still. Posted Image I've looked at Meteociel and can see what you mean.

 

UKMO is a halfway house as well. The BBC forecaster has just mentioned they are looking at Monday too.

If it did follow the ECM, if you visited Cromer you could have another "Salted Fosters" Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

I've just noticed that Pete has 'pinned' this thread.

 

Good on him I say.  Posted Image

 

I imagine there will be some other jealous types here soon though. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Well after some excellent analysis this morning of the current models appertaining to next Monday's potential, it only really leaves the NMM out of the bigger boys toys to consider:

 

Max sustained winds as an animation don't look that different from yesterday and are in about the same general area:

 

Posted Image

 

But have a think about the gusts if this came off as modelled for first thing Monday morning:

 

post-6667-0-98616400-1382523788_thumb.pn

 

Not great a rush-hour with trees still in leaf....

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

GFS 06Z has the storm as a deepening feature, with a central pressure of about 960mb, as it exits. Again North Norfolk might be in the firing line.

post-11059-0-86933600-1382524998_thumb.ppost-11059-0-37052400-1382524953_thumb.ppost-11059-0-30991500-1382524954_thumb.p

Edited by Steve C
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Not great a rush-hour with trees still in leaf....

 

Put 3 hours on that and widespread 60mph gusts at 9.00 am doesn't warrant thinking about:

 

post-6667-0-20161800-1382524840_thumb.pn

 

We've all seen scenarios like this come and go in the last 20 odd years so no need to look any further currently, as this could move North, South of just fizzle out all together. Just to say at this very early stage it looks dramatic, but can't be relied on and should be followed but not sweated over yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

Put 3 hours on that and widespread 60mph gusts at 9.00 am doesn't warrant thinking about:

 

Posted ImageNMM gusts 281013 09z.png

 

We've all seen scenarios like this come and go in the last 20 odd years so no need to look any further currently, as this could move North, South of just fizzle out all together. Just to say at this very early stage it looks dramatic, but can't be relied on and should be followed but not sweated over yet.

Good point, will be interesting to see the FAX charts as they come out, the Sunday one shows there's a big chance of the low just to the SW deepening, the 546 and 564DAM lines are as close as I've ever seen them. probably not much more than a couple of hundred miles between them

post-9318-0-80643200-1382527583_thumb.pn

Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Good point, will be interesting to see the FAX charts as they come out, the Sunday one shows there's a big chance of the low just to the SW deepening, the 546 and 564DAM lines are as close as I've ever seen them. probably not much more than a couple of hundred miles between them

 

Something's got a few models spooked but there's plenty of time for a reappraisal, where human intervention is carried out, nearer the time.

 

I can't remember the last time we were staring down a low pressure gun barrel like this, but I'm sure it was within the last 2 years and of course it never came off as badly as first forecast like this at 5/6 days away. Just one to watch I guess and hope it's only a bin-blower at worst.

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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

Something's got a few models spooked but there's plenty of time for a reappraisal, where human intervention is carried out, nearer the time.

 

I can't remember the last time we were staring down a low pressure gun barrel like this, but I'm sure it was within the last 2 years and of course it never came off as badly as first forecast like this at 5/6 days away. Just one to watch I guess and hope it's only a bin-blower at worst.

Good point.

 

And there's still, as you say, plenty of time for it to change, a couple of hundred miles North or South, 5-25mb difference, delayed or advanced, they can all change.

 

To me, it makes a change to be looking at something big coming in from the West, I'm in the same camp as Captain Shortwave, we've had too many days with an easterly or north easterly component this year (fine in winter, doesn't do much for the weather here in spring or early summer)

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)

Put 3 hours on that and widespread 60mph gusts at 9.00 am doesn't warrant thinking about:

 

Posted ImageNMM gusts 281013 09z.png

 

We've all seen scenarios like this come and go in the last 20 odd years so no need to look any further currently, as this could move North, South of just fizzle out all together. Just to say at this very early stage it looks dramatic, but can't be relied on and should be followed but not sweated over yet.

 

Well after some excellent analysis this morning of the current models appertaining to next Monday's potential, it only really leaves the NMM out of the bigger boys toys to consider:

 

Max sustained winds as an animation don't look that different from yesterday and are in about the same general area:

 

Posted Image

 

But have a think about the gusts if this came off as modelled for first thing Monday morning:

 

Posted ImageNMM gusts 281013 06z.png

 

Not great a rush-hour with trees still in leaf....

Ooo er, Coast.  Monday morning in Pembrokeshire could be lively if that came off.  Did I mention we will be there?!

 

AS

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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

Significant differences between the 84 and 96 hour FAX charts at the moment (both for 12:00 Saturday, 96 Hr not updated yet)

 

The 96hr has a complex quadruple node LP system stretching from a couple of hundred miles south of Greenland all the way to the coast of Norway

 

 

post-9318-0-10100700-1382529560_thumb.pn

 

 

The more recent T84 FAX removes two of the nodes and moves the node south of Greenland further east by about 500 miles.

 

post-9318-0-09728700-1382529550_thumb.pn

 

 

The movement further east, IMHO, brings colder air further south more quickly to interact with the (innocuous looking) little low with a double frontal system at the bottom left of the chart.

 

This is the one that will, if it verifies be the "Wild Wind from the West"

 

Again, to me, the further south the cold air is the better chance of there being an explosive development of the low  --  but still early days

Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather
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Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent

Afternoon all,

 

Last night was a bit of a disapointment - no T&L, the rain didn't arrive until dawn and didn't last all that long either.

 

Not too bad out there so far today though - very autumnal and quite a breeze kicking up now and again.  It is at least dry!

 

Monday is looking interesting and certainly something to keep an eye on between now and then.  The thrill seeker in me would love to see it come off - but of course as with weather of this kind, ideally, I would like everyone to stay safe too!

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Posted
  • Location: North Hertfordshire
  • Location: North Hertfordshire

Front past through now, quite active convection as well.

Looking at the met radar this rain storm (If I can call it that) is building as it moves east

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Posted
  • Location: bishop auckland
  • Location: bishop auckland

afternoon allllll

 

got a little bit of action last ,but i was told this morning by a mate of mine that at about 3 ish this the sky lit up for a while but i slept ,did not hear a thing,Posted Image .....so far to day mildish the odd heavy shower broken cloud sum sunshine its alll gooooooooooodPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

so far to day mildish the odd heavy shower broken cloud sum sunshine its alll gooooooooooodPosted Image

 

Wind has blown most of the rubbish away and it's quite sunny now, but annoying as it's so low in the sky at this time of year, I'm struggling to see the monitor.

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

Afternoon all,

 

post-10773-0-46730900-1382536380_thumb.j

 

....but at least the sun is shining and it's quite a pleasant Wednesday as Wednesdays go......been busy bed and tyre shopping so just having a catch up now with the potential for this Atlantic storm Sunday night - I'm not sure how a king size memory foam topped pocket sprung mattress and a full set of grippy tyres will help save us but I haven't got time to batten down the hatches as well now so let's hope it's not as serious as the Express said it would be Posted Image

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
  • Location: Bromley, Kent

Hello all,

 

I've gone from really lively showers to a beautiful, breezy blue sky warm afternoon. Posted Image

 

Interesting weather ahead but too soon to call atm. I hope if this system explodes everyone stays safe

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