South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>

[VillagePlank]

GFS ensemble set still prefer LP to skirt N Scotland but multiple operational runs over multiple days can't be ignored.

[radiohead]

That's yesterday's 12Z.

 

The 0Z ECMWF has shifted to a track futher north like the GFS. It's actually a little more intense than the GFS as it approaches the UK  :

 

 

 

Edited October 24, 2013 by radiohead

[VillagePlank]

The evolution of this looks quite interesting (and, perhaps, a little unbelievable),

 

[Coast]

 

That's yesterday's 12Z.

 

The 0Z ECMWF has shifted to a track futher north like the GFS. It's actually a little more intense than the GFS as it approaches the UK  :

 

Which falls in line with GFS as you say. Surely this must back down a little of the next couple of days, I'm not sure which set of runs to follow now as watching successive runs is quite nail biting and not achieving much else! 

[VillagePlank]

Which falls in line with GFS as you say. Surely this must back down a little of the next couple of days, I'm not sure which set of runs to follow now as watching successive runs is quite nail biting and not achieving much else! 

 

Well, GEFS' lowest member is 966hPa, it's highest member is 1003hPa, and it's mean is 987hPa: the mean is closer to the higher end of the range, so I would expect the actual pressure to be somewhere around the mean, perhaps a little higher based on last night's run.

[Guest bjaykent]

Morning Robin,

 

Certainly needs watching, a paddle on Eastbourne beach on Monday morning doesn't look advisable. Nice clear start to the day here this morning, temp dipped to about 5c with some mist hanging over the marshes earlier.

 

Have a nice day

 

Ian

[Coast]

MetO 5 day looks gruesome, 68 mph gusts along the Sussex coast?

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=map&fcTime=1382896800&map=GustSpeed&zoom=7&lon=-1.60&lat=51.82

 

 

 

Morning Robin,

 

Certainly needs watching, a paddle on Eastbourne beach on Monday morning doesn't look advisable. Nice clear start to the day here this morning, temp dipped to about 5c with some mist hanging over the marshes earlier.

 

Have a nice day

 

Ian

 

I think you may end up somewhere in Kent if you tried paddling in Eastbourne first thing Monday!

[anything-but]

Watching all this develop,i envisage a day-long lie in instead of hoisting the mainsail on the bike monday!

[radiohead]

Well, GEFS' lowest member is 966hPa, it's highest member is 1003hPa, and it's mean is 987hPa: the mean is closer to the higher end of the range, so I would expect the actual pressure to be somewhere around the mean, perhaps a little higher based on last night's run.

 

The 0Z GFS operational is 966 at T99 on this chart.

 

Edited October 24, 2013 by radiohead

[VillagePlank]

GEFS Heathrow Analysis,

 

 

The pressure that actually occurs on the day can be expected to fall between the dotted lines 68% of the time: so the form bet is inbetween those lines.

[Coast]

Dedicated thread for Monday's chances now open in the severe weather section:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78257-possible-severe-storm-monday-28th-october-2013/#entry2813048

[Summer of 76]

One good thing about next Monday around here will be less traffic on the road due to the schools being on half term as if is shown as present i think there could be a few problems on the roads.  I also have the day off so i can either watch the event or sit outside and hold down the patio furniture

[Heisenberg]

6am wake up means I will have to wait until the morning, the discover that the metoffice staff went to the Winchester and waited for all of this to blow over 

Sounds like a well thought through plan Matt. As long as they picked up mum and killed Phil on the way

[Daydream Boy]

Express Alert! Express Alert! I still cannot believe they employ such an amateur forecaster who is an expert at scaremongering a whole nation!! That idiot says it's going to be like the Oct '87 storm or worse! End the world!! Stop it!!

[Summer of 76]

I had a look at the Express on line the other day and was interested in the comments that people wrote at the bottom of the article asking if the editor to stop the journalist writing such rubbish, however that will never happen when it sells papers.

 

Just been for a look at the BBC online weather video and they only go up to Sunday at the moment and that was issued just before eight, hopefully they will put up a small video clip of what they think may or may not happen.  At the moment no one wants to worry people as more runs are needed although no doubt words has gone out to local authorities about the possibility of this event.

 

I'm off to cut the grass for the last time and pile it high so by the end of Monday it will be found in the either in the Wash or the TOD area depending on the track of the low

[Coast]

Express Alert! Express Alert! I still cannot believe they employ such an amateur forecaster who is an expert at scaremongering a whole nation!! That idiot says it's going to be like the Oct '87 storm or worse! End the world!! Stop it!!

 

The Telegraph has named the storm and it isn't even here yet!

 

The St Jude storm – named after the patron saint of depression and lost causes whose feast day falls on Monday – is currently a “a minor disturbance over the Gulf of Mexicoâ€, but it is feared that it could gather momentum as it reaches Britain.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10399012/Britons-warned-to-batten-down-the-hatches-ahead-of-storm.html

[Tom Quintavalle]

As stated above, certainly seems that the GFS op is a little out on its own this morning, dropping the central pressure of this low 20 mbs in 12 hours, 990 off the SW tip of Ireland 18z Sun to 970 Lincs/Yorks area at 06z Mon. IF the GFS op is correct then our region would certainly take a bit of a battering (media talk of Oct 87, as usual way OTT, one would think), would also cause some problems further afield for Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, esp.

Ukmo dont make so much of this wave depression, with perhaps the ECM closer to GFS, at this stage.Quite a few more runs needed to determine exact track and depth of this feature but will certainly make for some interesting synoptic viewing, in the days ahead.

Meanwhile today looks to be a very nice day, weatherwise, before more rain enters the region early morning tomorrow. Saturday looks set fair before the weather goes downhill as we go through Sunday..

 

Tom.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Kentish CZ

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

The Telegraph has named the storm and it isn't even here yet!

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10399012/Britons-warned-to-batten-down-the-hatches-ahead-of-storm.html

 

The St Jude storm – named after the patron saint of depression and lost causes whose feast day falls on Monday – is currently a “a minor disturbance over the Gulf of Mexicoâ€, but it is feared that it could gather momentum as it reaches Britain.

Yep, it's FEARED, not actually certain where it will hit, how powerful it will be, but we'll just scare everyone anyway.....

 

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

As stated above, certainly seems that the GFS op is a little out on its own this morning, dropping the central pressure of this low 20 mbs in 12 hours, 990 off the SW tip of Ireland 18z Sun to 970 Lincs/Yorks area at 06z Mon. IF the GFS op is correct then our region would certainly take a bit of a battering (media talk of Oct 87, as usual way OTT, one would think), would also cause some problems further afield for Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, esp.

Ukmo dont make so much of this wave depression, with perhaps the ECM closer to GFS, at this stage.Quite a few more runs needed to determine exact track and depth of this feature but will certainly make for some interesting synoptic viewing, in the days ahead.

Meanwhile today looks to be a very nice day, weatherwise, before more rain enters the region early morning tomorrow. Saturday looks set fair before the weather goes downhill as we go through Sunday..

 

Tom.

Interesting the divergence at T96, UKMO certainly seems to think it develops later, up to 6 hours later than GFS or ECM, you make a good point  Tom that the Low Countries will have problems from this.

 

As I see it at the moment, it could track right up the English Channel, so all of our region from the South Coast to Norfolk would get lots of rain, but the winds should only affect the extreme south coast (and they'd be E or NE winds), Or it could run up the Bristol Channel and exit between the Wash and Humberside, that would put all of us on the Southern (squeezed) side, highest winds in East Anglia, but still severe gale in the English Channel.

 

I'd prefer it went South, but we'll find out in a couple of days.....

[Coast]

As I see it at the moment, it could track right up the English Channel, so all of our region from the South Coast to Norfolk would get lots of rain, but the winds should only affect the extreme south coast (and they'd be E or NE winds),

 

That's the reason for my 'interest' at this point. We are quite exposed to the potential and with it backing off of the Channel, it will rip right in land. I just hope if it pans out as currently forecast, the South Downs may offer a little protection to Eastbourne as when you look at the MetO forecasts, in Brighton, Newhaven and Seaford (the other side of The Downs) they could really get clouted:

 

[dubmuffin]

My weather station seems incapable of measuring a gust over 23.5 mph, so it will be interesting to see how it fares come Monday

[Reefseeker]

A truly beautiful morning. From the southern bank of the Thames at Kingston this morning, lovely whispy mists could be seen hovering just above the river, then rising and stretching out across the parkland towards Hampton Court; as I waxed lyrical about the beauty of the mist against the clear blue sky with the sun still low, even my son, to give him credit, agreed on nature's fabulousness.

 

Regarding Monday's 'storm', I must say I'm watching with interest, as we are setting up the new holiday flat over the weekend at Sandbanks near Bournemouth. We have often speculated as to whether a severe storm could overwhelm the narrow spit that connects the square mile of land between Bournemouth and Studland and leave it as an island in effect. Most likely many many years away of course. But in the immediate timeframe, not sure if we will get less 'weather' in Sandbanks or Surbiton! It certainly won't make the drive back easy on Monday if strong winds and rain hit but I have work on Tuesday; don't really want to leave on Sunday. So yes, I'll be following the forums carefully for you expert chaps' and chapesses' analysis  .

[Coast]

Regarding Monday's 'storm', I must say I'm watching with interest, as we are setting up the new holiday flat over the weekend at Sandbanks near Bournemouth. 

 

You're sooooooo posh RS!!!

[abruzzi spur]

Morning all

 

In relation to Monday and the will it/won't it storm, there would be a certain irony in us being in North Pembrokeshire and it being a little breezy there, whilst the south of England gets blown to smithereens (sorry I came over all Daily Express there for a moment).

 

The place in Wales is a mile from the sea so I don't think we are at the same risk as Reef in being cut off.  If we are then it will have been one hell of an event!

 

Still, never one to miss the opportunity to dig out some kit (see under 'Winter, unnecessary extraction from attic of ice-axe and crampons'), I will be packing oil lamps and battery lamps and getting hold of extra coal and logs ready for the week ahead in case the power is out (it used to blow out in the house when we plugged electric heaters in but since finally installing central heating 3 years ago that doesn't happen any more.  Much.)

 

AS

[Reefseeker]

You're sooooooo posh RS!!!

 

Oh daahhhling, my itsy-bitsy little place by the sea? it's all fake posh you know! Fab place to walk the dog, although I've yet to meet Harry R's Lulu....

 

Edit: Lawks AS, just read your post, you've got me thinking about emergency stuff in case we get cut off or anything; car's already packed up with soft furnishings and accessories to beautify the place, but not much use without lighting, water, cooking or heat!

Edited October 24, 2013 by Reefseeker