South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>

[Jax]

ECM Brings the storm more north, with us right in the action. 

 

 

OK I have used this before but still....

[Amanzi]

ECM Brings the storm more north, with us right in the action. 

 

That pressure system is on par with a cat 2 hurricane (not wind speed)  which is Approximately  979-965 mb 

[Mark Neal.]

That pressure system is on par with a cat 2 hurricane (not wind speed)  which is Approximately  979-965 mb 

Yes an almighty low, question is how low can it go, not any lower surely 

[Snowangel-MK]

Normally Atlantic storms of this type develop much further to the west of the UK and are waning in strength by the time they reach the UK and Ireland.

This storm is more unusual, developing much closer to the UK and potentially tracking across the country while still in its most powerful phase. A strong jet stream and warm air close to the UK are both contributing to the development and strength of the storm.

If the storm arrives in line with current predictions, some areas could see some of their strongest winds for a number of years.

[john pike]

Hi ab

With your job I would consider staying off the roads

Whatever happens I would call very windy either way.

How strong?

More later

[anything-but]

Hi ab

With your job I would consider staying off the roads

Whatever happens I would call very windy either way.

How strong?

More later

 

 

100+ miles of my daily run is on the A2/M2/A299 out to Herne Bay and then back,stopping @ Strood 2X,Gravesend then into London for 5 pickups and dropping the lot off @ Vauxhall (Collect samples from vets to be tested).

 

Watching the charts closely tonight / tomorrow before making a decision,your slant on things JP certainly helps a weather numpty like myself stay informed too. 

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Yes, that always needs to be borne in mind, until quite close to the event, in these situations. Just be aware a.t.m. It could still be a damp squib. 

 

I am getting addicted to watching the model run updates though!

Yep, sort of forces you to watch the updates to see the latest track, latest intensity forecast etc, I don't know about you, I don't want it to damage anything or hurt anyone, but I'd love to experience it. 

 

How stupid is that???

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

this is the worse case scenario      

Hi Tom,

 

I haven't had a chance to look at them myself yet, but are there many Ensemble members near that?  I'll try to have a look later at what the ensemble mean is.

 

But that is a cracking storm, a definite "Stay at home" day if you can

[john pike]

Thanks ab

Sensible call

I am trying not to exaggerate what's being shown and more than likely be more accurate tomorrow night.

However at present its looking a bit concerning

Let's see where the fax charts go with this later tonight

Regards

John

[Jax]

Think I have found the problem with the car misting up, the seal has been "joined" at the bottom, surely that is not right? (car was in a rear hit 3 years ago and boot was re done.

[Snowangel-MK]

Let's just hope we don't see headlines like this on Tuesday....

.... hopefully people are more aware of the storms potential and can stay safe !

[tinybill]

if you get chance watch the news 24 forecast

 

the hints are there to watch monday but will not commit yet

 

they do explain it pretty well

watching Alex to-night on look east  is  that  me or  has she got  the  path as  the  great  storm  which hit the east  side

Let's just hope we don't see headlines like this on Tuesday....

image.jpg

.... hopefully people are more aware of the storms potential and can stay safe !

i know what  the  great  storm was  like scary!!!

Edited October 24, 2013 by tinybill

[coldfingers]

Let's just hope we don't see headlines like this on Tuesday....

image.jpg

.... hopefully people are more aware of the storms potential and can stay safe !

Sadly people may be more aware of the potential of severe storms but most have an 'It will never happen to me attitude'. I really hope people listen to the warnings and remember property can be rebuilt, human bodies are much frailer! Too many people died in '87 for silly reasons.

[tinybill]

Sadly people may be more aware of the potential of severe storms but most have an 'It will never happen to me attitude'. I really hope people listen to the warnings and remember property can be rebuilt, human bodies are much frailer! Too many people died in '87 for silly reasons.

not  much  fun  being chased by  bus  shelters , sheds in my car  and  that  was  in the  middle  of  my  town!!

[john pike]

lets update the early fax charts for now

 

tonight

 

after 2am heavy rain on the way

 

gusty winds from the south west

 

not cold 12 degrees roughly

 

--------------------------------------------------------------

 

no fax for tomorrow

 

however heavy rain up to around lunchtime

 

clearing all around 2-3pm

 

temps around 16-18 degrees

 

will not feel it though

 

winds gusty south westerly

 

---------------------------------------------------------------

 

friday night

 

gusty south west wind

 

temps around 12-13 degrees

 

rainfall

 

looks mainly dry

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

saturday

 

a strong south west flow

 

rainfall

 

should stay mainly dry

 

temps

somewhere around 16-18 degrees

 

rainfall due very late in the day

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

saturday night

 

still a strong west to south westerly wind

 

rainfall

 

expect some heavy rain overnight

 

flooding?????

 

temps

 

around 10-12 degrees

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

sunday

 

winds increasing

 

40mph west to south westerly

 

rainfall

 

still very heavy rain for most of the day

 

temps

 

chillier 12-14 degrees

 

i reckon the odd rumble or 2 is likely on sunday

 

to note

 

flood warnings may come into play for the south east by sunday

 

with the ground saturated that will not help what comes next

 

ukmo raw fax

 

 

look at top right

 

i wish this was 6 hours earlier

 

update the rest when the updated fax charts come out

[john pike]

hi tiny will watch the updated ones after 9.30 tonight

 

then see the updated fax charts around 11ish later

[Guest bjaykent]

My only hope is that companies will heed these early warnings and put in place contingency plans tomorrow - working from home, day off & make the time up or perhaps travel later if possible. As it stands it's not just the severity of this potential storm that is causing the headache but also the timing, if it is to hit the south it would be much better overnight as in 1987 which undoubtedly reduced the amount of people injured and killed.

 

I can only the imagine the chaos particularly on trains on Monday morning, not only the potential of flooding, leaves on the lines but the much more complicated issues of trees down and power loss, doesn't even bear thinking about if commuters have already started travelling.

 

Lets hope for an outbreak of common sense if it continues to be forecast over the weekend for Monday rush hour.

 

As much as I like extremes of weather I personally would prefer to see a big downgrade of this storm.

 

Will be watching your fax updates for the next 48 hours JP.

Edited October 24, 2013 by bjaykent

[tinybill]

hi tiny will watch the updated ones after 9.30 tonight

 

then see the updated fax charts around 11ish later

i see  the 930  one  but i be zzzzzzzzzzz  later  there a scary post on the  model thread  by  snowman  looks  like  we  getting a  direct  hit!!

[Snowangel-MK]

Sadly people may be more aware of the potential of severe storms but most have an 'It will never happen to me attitude'. I really hope people listen to the warnings and remember property can be rebuilt, human bodies are much frailer! Too many people died in '87 for silly reasons.

Hopefully it being half term will help reduce the number of people on the roads - in 87 my then hairdressers mother was killed when a tree came down on her car.all we can do is try to stay safe, not everyone is going to be able to stay at home although I would imagine quite a few people will ! Sometimes it's just being in the wrong place at the wrong time - I was 10 minutes late going out earlier but had I been on time I could have been involved in the RTA which had only happened a few minutes before!

[Neilsouth]

We do this every year!!!!!!!

 

Sigh

[Tom Jarvis]

thanks for the update jp my shooting on Saturday is going to be fun. it will be very sporting as the birds will be moving at a very quick pace and my shooting is a bit rusty. but should be a good day even if I miss everything

 

maybe a forecast for people who go hunting would be good as it is key to know what direction the wind is blowing when stalking deer or doing a drive on a shoot, just a suggestion.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[john pike]

i think tomorrow night will be when confidence of how this pans out will be higher

 

thats when stronger warnings should be put out.

 

i agree with people tend to think other things are more important than the weather

 

and tend to ignore the warnings

 

i would love this low to do a very quick turn and make all this talk waffle

 

problem is i have a feeling it wont

 

i for one will be clearing all my loose garden bits on saturday just in case

[Mark Neal.]

So a stormy monday to come, how windy still up for debate but heavy rain is now almost a certainty. Here are some HR charts for Monday showing Rainfall. Wind gusts & Pressure. 

  

 

  

 

  

Edited October 24, 2013 by Mark N

[coldfingers]

We do this every year!!!!!!!

 

Sigh

Ah but Victor, you must enjoy doing it every year or you wouldn't know it was happening!   

[Snowangel-MK]