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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>

Methuselah

By Methuselah
in Regional

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Iceni Community Regular

Iceni

Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
Posted (edited)

News 24 weather just suggested strongest wind might hit France which ties up with the fax

 

 

 

here we go

 

and guess what

 

we need the bit inbetween

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

maybe its me but that looks further south

 

think a lot more runs needed still

 

although that would still give some strong winds and heavy rain

 

 

News 24 weather just suggested strongest wind might hit France which ties up with the fax

 

I'm a clairvoyant  Posted Image

 

Bow down before me and pay tributes...

Edited by Iceni
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Fax says France get blown to smithereens whilst we just get wet. Fair enough Posted Image

Time to sleep now I think

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Way too early to write this off imho. I think there's a bullet coming, it's just who will be the people to dodge it?

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

I also think the fax might mean trouble for people in the north of our region, if the low is intensifying as it departs.

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john pike Maestro

john pike

Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
Posted

the thing to watch though

 

the thing we cannot see is the bit between 96-120

 

when that low tightens and drops south the isobars will really close up

 

over the south east

 

we cannot see that bit at present so thats why i think we need to see where we stand on friday night

 

as the ukmo charts can tally in with this

 

i expect a load of shifting around over this still

 

also flooding would be an issue as well

 

all this excitement is too much for one night Posted ImagePosted Image

 

whats it gonna be like when we get our first snowflake Posted Image

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Guest bjaykent

Guest bjaykent

Posted
Posted

Well it's been an entertaining evening, I'm not going to panic, might just buy a chainsaw and a month's worth of food tomorrowPosted Image

 

Good night all.Posted Image

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john pike Maestro

john pike

Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
Posted

just one final post re this

 

look at these charts on gfs

 

96

Posted Image

 

120

 

Posted Image

 

different to the fax

 

but notice no low showing

 

thats why we need the bit in between

 

anyway better get some beauty sleep

 

goodnight all it been fun Posted Image

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Morning all. Posted Image

 

GFS Charts from the midnight update have Monday's storm very slightly further north and slightly more progressive.

post-11059-0-18675400-1382590635_thumb.ppost-11059-0-48075800-1382590636_thumb.ppost-11059-0-68765700-1382590637_thumb.p

From the previous run.

post-11059-0-56103100-1382590638_thumb.p

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

It looked a pretty ugly low on Carol Kirkwood's forecast just now.  Posted Image

 

Having said that, it's still way too early to get too excited.

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Hi Steve,

 

hope she didn't mention the 'H' word as with thunderstorms, otherwise we know the outcome

She didn't. Mind you she still has a lot of time this morning. Posted Image

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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted

Hi all. Good morning. A chilly 3.7c here currently under clear skies and light winds. Have just posted some overnight model run analysis in the model thread if anyone is interested..

A stormy monday for sure, but how severe and track will be up for debate still!

Link- http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78188-model-output-discussion-17th-oct-onwards/?p=2812975

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Guest bjaykent

Guest bjaykent

Posted
Posted (edited)

Hi Mark N, being in a boat in the Channel 8am Monday doesn't look very appealingPosted Image

 

post-16390-0-71525100-1382594293_thumb.g

 

Going to be an interesting weekend of model watching, just waiting to see what ECM think this morning.

Edited by bjaykent
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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted

Hi Mark N, being in a boat in the Channel 8am Monday doesn't look very appealingPosted Image

gfs windy 102.GIF

Going to be an interesting weekend of model watching, just waiting to see what ECM think this morning.

Indeed. It is going to be a rather windy and wet morning on Monday, not going to be pretty. Likely to hit through rush hour on mon am which won't help things.

Beautiful morning despite it being rather nippy, clear skies with mist patches on grassland.

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Hi Mark N, being in a boat in the Channel 8am Monday doesn't look very appealing

 

Going to be an interesting weekend of model watching, just waiting to see what ECM think this morning.

Well, extrapolating, it looks like it might be an issue. Posted Image

 

 

 post-11059-0-51233900-1382595911_thumb.gpost-11059-0-08812600-1382595913_thumb.g

 

 

Are there any charts for less than 24 hour intervals?

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Guest bjaykent

Guest bjaykent

Posted
Posted

 Are there any charts for less than 24 hour intervals?

 

Hi Steve, almost snap, well as ECM & GFS are so similar at 96 & 120, seems reasonable to look at GFS charts for in between times but it is annoying that ECM and UKMO jump on 24hrs at a time  

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

 

 

seems reasonable to look at GFS charts for in between times but it is annoying that ECM and UKMO jump on 24hrs at a time  

 

Morning Ian!

 

GFS still on track and intensity for Monday, not swaying much at all on the current run:

 

Posted Image

 

It does lessen the time for exposure to it a little though:

 

Posted Image

 

Gusts still over 100km/hr over our region:

 

Posted Image

 

Higher as it exits into the North Sea:

 

Posted Image

 

So GFS still resolute this morning about Monday.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

NMM current run much the same too, with maybe a slight track South, much of the region still in for a very windy day and these gust charts would be a big worry if they came to fruition, especially through the early morning:

 

post-6667-0-99632600-1382597314_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-72528200-1382597316_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-29148900-1382597318_thumb.pn

 

We still aren't in a time period to get concerned, but I don't see too much change on the outlook currently. So maybe over the weekend things will move or abate, if not, Sunday afternoon start tying things down outside.

 

 

 

 

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

My take on Monday morning,

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78188-model-output-discussion-17th-oct-onwards/?p=2812995

 

The form bet is the pressure will be higher than the operational, possibly somewhere just above the GEFS mean of 987hPa. If this mornings operational came off, our region would get battered, and given the timing (it not being overnight when people are in bed) it's no wonder Carol on this morning's BBC is telling people to keep tuned in to weather forecasts.

Edited by Sparkicle
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

If this mornings operational came off, our region would get battered.

 

Just trying to get some crumbs of comfort for Monday and ECMWF has the low further South, but I'm not sure if that means we (South coast) would escape the worst of it or not:

 

Posted Image

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