South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>

[john pike]

still waiting guys

 

tom that chart you posted is ominously close to last nights 120 fax chart

 

probably means nothing but spooky

[Tom Quintavalle]

still waiting guys

 

tom that chart you posted is ominously close to last nights 120 fax chart

 

probably means nothing but spooky

 

Yes, not far away John, is it? 

[Jax]

just had the fence fixed, no action wanted here.

[london-snow]

Hello all, Well Saint Jude day Storm, Causing a few issues i see.

http://uk.weather.com/story/news/severe-weather-outlook-st-jude-day-storm-28th-october-2013-20131023

It's a warning yes.

However predicting the strength of the wind is foolish until the low has actually 'bombed' if indeed it comes off at all. At this stage there is so many variations on what may or may not happen.

It is however making me sit up and take notice.

[john pike]

hi tom

 

very close

 

another thing which i am not sure has been spotted

 

look at the sea temps in the atlantic

 

 

 

thats a big 2.73 above average but a lot cooler around us

 

how that will react is unsure

 

but not seen that difference since i have started posting in here

[Jason T]

It's a warning yes.However predicting the strength of the wind is foolish until the low has actually 'bombed' if indeed it comes off at all. At this stage there is so many variations on what may or may not happen.It is however making me sit up and take notice.

 

Its all guess work at the moment, Especially with wind speed and where it hits this far out,its abit like snowfall, Its impossible to predict depths etc 24 hours out,However its on the way.

[Tom Quintavalle]

hi tom

 

very close

 

another thing which i am not sure has been spotted

 

look at the sea temps in the atlantic

 

 

 

thats a big 2.73 above average but a lot cooler around us

 

how that will react is unsure

 

but not seen that difference since i have started posting in here

 

Yes, added fuel there too and I made the point on the MOD thread earlier today, that many trees still have retained quite a lot of leaf coverage too, if this storm deepens explosively we could see quite a lot of tree damage. Still way too early to call its track yet though.

 

Tom.

[john pike]

agree tom

 

no one can predict this at present

 

but i would keep a serious watch on this just incase

 

the trees around here are still full leaf and with the heavy rain

 

expected friday and sunday it would cause problems

 

all we can do is watch and see how this unfolds

 

still waiting the fax charts

 

one good thing it has got the thread buzzing again

[Iceni]

Yes but has anyone phoned the BBC yet to say there is a hurricane on the way ?

 

You first 

[john pike]

18z pub run show this

 

 

[john pike]

a different view

 

 

 

my concern there is we have an initial south west wind

 

which then quickly changes to a north west direction

[Sussex Jules]

Hi JP and everyone at least they are starting to mention it on weather forecasts now. Interesting chart just put up on MAD thread just now based on latest GFS run showing some pretty nasty gusts. What would the implications be of that change in wind direction?

[Captain Shortwave]

Given we have had a -16C North easterly in March, 34C recorded in August and that July spell, it just seems to be one of those years where insane stuff verifies.

All hope for an Easterly in December then 

[john pike]

lalalalalala

[Jax]

lalalalalala

awww cr4p!

[john pike]

hi jules

 

my thinking is that trees would be at risk

 

first strong one way

 

then weaken them further from a different angle

 

also roof tiles could be a problem as well especially if slightly loosened by the first wind from the south west

 

again though this is just a suppose situation at present

 

fax charts are still not up

 

glad i do not work there at present

[Captain Shortwave]

Dear Metoffice

WE WANT OUR APOCALYPTIC FAX CHARTS PLEASE!!!!

 

[john pike]

hi captain

 

i will second that

 

please met office we promise to be nice to you

[Guest bjaykent]

Hi JP, 11.15 has been and gone, some early head scratching going on at the Meto I think!

Edited October 23, 2013 by bjaykent

[Sussex Jules]

I was looking at the local trees this morning and up until last night I don't think there has been much leaf fall yet.

[Iceni]

it's gone a lot further south than earlier - wonder whether it will keep doing so and whack France instead.

[john pike]

here we go

 

and guess what

 

we need the bit inbetween

 

 

maybe its me but that looks further south

 

think a lot more runs needed still

 

although that would still give some strong winds and heavy rain

[Guest bjaykent]

here we go

 

and guess what

 

we need the bit inbetween

 

 

maybe its me but that looks further south

 

think a lot more runs needed still

 

although that would still give some strong winds and heavy rain

News 24 weather just suggested strongest wind might hit France which ties up with the fax

[john pike]

i think the best bet is see where this low shows on friday or even saturday

 

hopefully the low goes further south but not convinced on the charts yet

 

same again tomorrow guys

[Captain Shortwave]

here we go

 

and guess what

 

we need the bit inbetween

 

 

maybe its me but that looks further south

 

think a lot more runs needed still

 

although that would still give some strong winds and heavy rain

According to my view T120 hasn't updated yet

Bigger news is the Met have scrapped the raw UKMO output for T96, the Fax looks near identical to the ECM op

Got day 5 now, looks a UKMO/ECM compromise

Edited October 23, 2013 by Captain shortwave