South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>

[Tamara]

I can do that for you Tamara....."%£$$^"$^$^%^£"!!!"  

It looks a lot worse on the Euro meteocil map..literally like an exploded bomb!

 

Looks like it's time to stock up...on wine!

Edited October 25, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[throwoff]

For anyone worried about Sunday into monday just as a heads up poundland have some mini led torches in. They take 3 aaa batteries. I picked a pair up to keep in the bedroom and bathroom today and they are incredibly bright for a pound each.

[john pike]

tomorrow

 

a gusty south west wind

 

temps

 

around 16 degrees

 

rain

 

some grey drizzly bits around but also some sunny spells

 

------------------------------------------------------------

 

saturday night

 

 

 

heavy rain

 

temps around 12 degrees

 

wind strong south westerly

 

---------------------------------------------------------

 

sunday

 

a strong south west wind

 

temps

12-14 degrees

 

rainfall

 

expect heavy blustery showers through the day

 

also there may be the odd rumble or 2 here

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

rest to follow

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM t72 (Monday lunchtime)...no comment..

 

Not good

The ECM could be following the GEMs run too so there might be another one at day 7 

[Tamara]

Not good

The ECM could be following the GEMs run too so there might be another one at day 7 

This is exactly what I was worrying about and rather expecting to see

[anything-but]

Be good to get the chat channel filled sun night / early hours ,can see things developing too quick to be constantly reading forums posts.

[john pike]

 

sunday night

 

a very messy picture

 

see the low sat just to the south of ireland

 

theres the bugger

 

now rainfall

 

heavy gusty rain already here

 

note the position of the low here as agrees with the fax chart

 

now heres the jet profile

 

that in my eyes would see the low head towards the north of yarmouth

 

temps

 

warm around 16-18 degrees

 

wind early looks around 40-50 mph

 

now if we look at monday

 

you can see clearly how quick the low has gone through

 

so inbetween this

 

between around 2am to 10am we are likely to see severe gales as the low bombs and moves east to north east very quick

 

the latter part could cause some brief but higher values of wind for the east of the region (keep an eye on the warnings

 

i can see gusts 80-90mph here and this looks widespread for our region

 

also on monday expect some very heavy blustery showers

 

 

overall

 

keep watching the updates as this could be a very dangerous event

 

take care all

 

a note

 

this is a developing event and the above is my take on this at present

 

i will look again later and revamp if needed

Edited October 25, 2013 by john pike

[Snowangel-MK]

Posted by Ian Fergusson on the dedicated storm thread...

 

UKMO 4km modelling of gusts v troubling, but the timing issues now arguably more a focus versus nuances of track. 12Z JMA a case in point (& they run a very respected model). All to play for in next 48hrs. Many of us returning to work later Sunday... can't recall when that last happened across our team.

 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78257-possible-severe-storm-monday-28th-october-2013/page-30#entry2814902

 

 

overall

 

keep watching the updates as this could be a very dangerous event

 

take care all

 

a note

 

this is a developing event and the above is my take on this at present

 

i will look again later and revamp if needed

 

Thanks John 

[Eskimo]

Hull is bracing itself for 2 inches of rainfall, can imagine the gusts here will be at least 50-60mph. 

[Keraunic]

Well....sorry but I'm getting excited. I love extreme weather.

[Team Jo]

So! Aside from the candles/gin/torches that might be helpful in the event of power cuts etc, what other things are we all squirrelling away just in case for Sun night? Thought it might be cool to share some ideas?

[Snowangel-MK]

So! Aside from the candles/gin/torches that might be helpful in the event of power cuts etc, what other things are we all squirrelling away just in case for Sun night? Thought it might be cool to share some ideas?

 

Do I really have to tell where I've hid a stash of chocolate oranges (including some popping candy ones) ....I've already said the quality street and Baileys is in the cupboard under the stairs  

[john pike]

earplugs

 

for more than one reason

[Snowangel-MK]

oh dear....it's not just any old storm that is going to batter us now it's a 'killer Megastorm', the Daily Star must shop at M&S 

 

 

Killer Megastorm to batter Britain on Monday: Met Office EXTENDS weather warning

BRITAIN is bracing itself for a deadly Megastorm that is set to cause destruction on an even bigger scale than the Great Storm of 1987.

 

 

 

The Met Office have issued a severe weather warning for most of the UK on Monday, with winds set to reach incredible speeds of up to 90mph.

 

Torrential rain and flooding is also predicted, with nearly two inches of rain set to fall in just a few hours.

 

The wind warning has been upped from yellow to amber for the WHOLE of the south of England - just one step away from red, where the advice is to "take action" - and we should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, according to the Met Office site.

 

They also advise commuters to only travel if necessary and that there is a risk of injury from flying debris.

 

 

 

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/347103/Killer-Megastorm-to-batter-Britain-on-Monday-Met-Office-EXTENDS-weather-warning

 

[West Sussex Kate]

So! Aside from the candles/gin/torches

ha ha gin! that made me smile. Edited October 25, 2013 by West Sussex Kate

[Callie]

So! Aside from the candles/gin/torches that might be helpful in the event of power cuts etc, what other things are we all squirrelling away just in case for Sun night? Thought it might be cool to share some ideas?

 

I got some bottled water and have got a few dinners I can cook on the gas hob if the power goes...

I got some bottled water and have got a few dinners I can cook on the gas hob if the power goes...

 

Oh and plenty of alcohol

[West Sussex Kate]

earplugs

 

for more than one reason

yep ear plugs! although my dad slept through the 87 event, my poor mum kept trying to wake him up!

[john pike]

hi kate

 

not just for the storm

 

with no electricity etc i would have to talk to my mrs

[Summer of 76]

Just received this email from our local police which is usually used for the latest crime in the area.

 

25 October 2013

 

‘We’re ready for storm forecast – are you?’ 

Emergency response partners on the Bedfordshire and Luton Local Resilience Forum met this afternoon to ensure they are ready to activate their plans ahead of anticipated severe weather on Sunday evening/Monday morning.

Currently the Met Office has an amber alert in place for the county predicting winds of 60-80mph, resulting in possible dangerous driving conditions, widespread tree and minor structural damage, risk of injury from flying debris and the potential for localised interruption to power supplies.

There is also a yellow flood warning in place advising that persistent heavy rain could cause surface water flooding.

Bedfordshire Police Chief Supt Mike Colbourne, Chair of BLLRF, said: “While there is no need for any undue alarm, the forecast is currently for winds of a strength that we have not seen in this part of the country for more than 20 years. With the trees still in leaf and the ground soft after recent rain, there is certainly the potential for some tree and structural damage, and disruption to travel particularly on Monday morning.

“There are number of straightforward steps that residents and businesses can take now to make sure they are as prepared as possible and I would urge them to do so.

“Partners will continue to monitor the latest forecasts over the weekend and, if the situation develops, can activate a multi-agency response including organisations such as the Environment Agency, Highways Agency and the utility companies.

Before a storm, secure loose objects such as ladders, garden furniture or anything else that could be blown into windows and other glazing and break them.

Close and securely fasten doors and windows, particularly those on the windward side of the house, and especially large doors such as those on garages.

Park vehicles in a garage, if available; otherwise keep them clear of buildings, trees, walls and fences.

Close and secure loft trapdoors with bolts, particularly if roof pitch is less than 30 degrees.

If chimney stacks are tall and in poor condition, move beds away from areas directly below them.

During a storm, stay indoors as much as possible. If you do go out, try not to walk or shelter close to buildings and trees.

Keep away from the sheltered side of boundary walls and fences — if these structures fail, they will collapse on this side. Do not go outside to repair damage while the storm is in progress.

If possible, enter and leave your house through doors in the sheltered side, closing them behind you. Open internal doors only as needed, and close them behind you.

Do not drive unless your journey is really necessary. Delay your journey or find alternative routes if possible.

If your journey is essential, take particular care when driving on exposed routes such as bridges or high open roads. Slow down and be aware of side winds, particular care should be taken if you are towing or are a high-sided vehicle.

After a storm, be careful not to touch any electrical/telephone cables that have been blown down or are still hanging, and do not walk too close to walls, buildings and trees as they could have been weakened.

Make sure that any vulnerable neighbours or relatives are safe and help them make arrangements for any repairs.

Further advice for strong gales, heavy rain and flooding plus useful links including how to prepare an emergency home kit are available via the resilience forum’s website www.whatwouldyoudoif.co.uk.

The website also features advice for businesses on preparing a business continuity plan, including a ten-minute health check.

[Guest bjaykent]

hi kate

 

not just for the storm

 

with no electricity etc i would have to talk to my mrs

Hi JP, hope your mrs doesn't read this forum or you will have more than just a storm to worry about

[john pike]

hi bjaykent

 

i just showed her the post

 

got a very big tut

[Guest bjaykent]

hi bjaykent

 

i just showed her the post

 

got a very big tut

LOL! I'm sure she will make you pay later!!!

[coldfingers]

hi bjaykent

 

i just showed her the post

 

got a very big tut

Hi John, what you said is just what my hubby would have said. I however would have done more than tut, I would have boxed his ears! LOL, after 30 years married i reckon i deserve the right to do that. 

 

OOPS sorry, seriously off topic.

Edited October 25, 2013 by coldfingers

[john pike]

to pick up on captains post earlier

 

ecm

 

at 144

look at the low to our west

 

jet for 144

 

 

strong and look at where the really strong jet is

 

to our west as well

 

now at

 

168

 

the low has already passed our east so it is moving very quickly

 

jet for 168

 

ouch

 

as captain said this could be round 2

 

long way out but maybe another problem to watch out for

 

 

 

also look at the night before fireworks night

 

[fluid dynamic]

hi kate

 

not just for the storm

 

with no electricity etc i would have to talk to my mrs

same here

 

nightmare !!!!!!!!!!!