South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>

[tadpole]

 

 

100 mph winds in purple zone

 

think i will reserve judgement on that for now

 

ouch though

 

That purple blob is right on top of my old mum who lives on the beach which is 3 miles to the right of Dungeness nuclear power station!

I've cancelled my 200 mile round trip to her on Monday, but she may need rescuing by the neighbours if anything happens.

[Tom Montalbano]

Still some freaky temps around.

 

 

Tom.

[suffolkboy_]

john, what does the black signify , or shouldn't I ask!

 

The black area signifies that it's beyond the scale of that key (i.e over 150kph, about 94mph). Do bear in mind though that is over the English Chanel where there is no shelter!

[Mesoscale]

Everyone talking about garden furniture reminds me of the time I stayed at my mothers aunts house in Florida during hurricane Wilma during october 2005, she got all of her outside furniture (plastic chairs table etc) and sunk them in her pool so they didn't blow everywhere, she said that she didn't want spiders etc coming into the house and the pool was easier lol.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Mesoscale

[Tom Jarvis]

well the 18z ensembles are not good 14 out of the 24 ensembles go for a low deeper than 965mb    

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If and big if these charts we have seen this evening continue.. And come Sunday are still like they are.. There is a very good possibility it could be a storm to remember let's just say...

[Steve C]

If and big if these charts we have seen this evening continue.. And come Sunday are still like they are.. There is a very good possibility it could be a storm to remember let's just say...

For sure. It could be one to add to my list of properly big storms I've experienced here - to add to 1976, 1987 and 1990.In those days though, I was more carefree with few concerns. I'm worried now (but still excited too)

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM analysis shows parts of Kent receiving gusts of wind of up to around 100mph, as much as 115mph in the channel. Yikes.

Time to sleep and have nightmares   

[alexisj9]

Well the ECM analysis shows parts of Kent receiving gusts of wind of up to around 100mph, as much as 115mph in the channel. Yikes.

Time to sleep and have nightmares   

I know every single model seems to put the worst gusts, what ever they may be for that run over me, grrrr. Don't like these 18z runs at all. Those gust seem to be getting stronger not weaker too. I'm hoping for a little down grade from this EMC and GFS.

[lottiekent]

Well the ECM analysis shows parts of Kent receiving gusts of wind of up to around 100mph, as much as 115mph in the channel. Yikes.

Time to sleep and have nightmares

Definitely the stuff of nightmares! I must admit that I'm quite excited to see how this unfolds as I'm a quarter of a mile from the cliffs in Folkestone that overlook the Harbour - I'm expecting a bit of a brisk breeze..

[Team Jo]

Maybe it's me, I just don't think 'wind day' has the same ring to it as 'snow day'.

However, I think travel impact could be pretty strong round these parts, the QEII Bridge closes at the merest sneeze, and there's a huge amount of HGV at traffic locally with the super port. It's all perilous!

I'm very very interested to see how she looks in 24 hrs time....and a bit alarmed, and a bit excited.

[West Sussex Kate]

Night all. See what tomorrow brings xx

[alexisj9]

Maybe it's me, I just don't think 'wind day' has the same ring to it as 'snow day'.However, I think travel impact could be pretty strong round these parts, the QEII Bridge closes at the merest sneeze, and there's a huge amount of HGV at traffic locally with the super port. It's all perilous!I'm very very interested to see how she looks in 24 hrs time....and a bit alarmed, and a bit excited.

Oh gosh, I haven't even been thinking about the A20, A2 and all the foreign HGV's that travel along them. I hope they have the sence not to bother traveling. After all dover ports will be shut anyway.

[Jason T]

HELLO ALL.....Storm incoming ?. Models; can't get to grips as it's volatile, To many fluctuations to map out a path,speed,area. 

Night all. See what tomorrow brings xx

 

 

More Confusion.

[Steve C]

Thank God for posters like John Pike. Always balanced and reasonable.

 

I've just seen a post on the discussion thread and was thrown by it, until I looked at its detail. I don't know whether it was posted deliberately to scare people. If so, it really isn't on!  The situation looks bad enough, without scaremongering.

 

Edit. The guy has now clarified, so fair enough.

Edited October 26, 2013 by Steve C

[yamkin]

Hi SE gang, hope you are all in good spirits. Croydon Council are on Preparedness Alert for the coming storm force winds on Monday. Stay safe with peace & blessings.

[Iceni]

That purple blob is right on top of my old mum who lives on the beach which is 3 miles to the right of Dungeness nuclear power station!

I've cancelled my 200 mile round trip to her on Monday, but she may need rescuing by the neighbours if anything happens.

 

Can't you go and evacuate her so she could stay with you until the danger's past? For your own peace of mind as much as anything. I'm surprised local councils aren't making arrangements for elderly people just to get them out of harm's way, but I suppose we just exist to pay their pension plans.

[Iceni]

Some appropriate blues…

 

[Iceni]

 

this just posted by fergieweather

 

fergieweather

fergieweather

Indeed. We consider sting jet potential increasingly likely as storm exits eastwards meaning backwash winds could be most problematic. Incidentally, all models now have a good grasp of the initiating perturbation and exhibit just minor variation at that juncture. Consequently, Ops Centre note higher than usual confidence on broad story even at this range albeit range of outcomes in MOGREPS-15, EC etc still needs emphasis. I said on air tonight that one area I think will get hammered is contiguous to Lyme Bay (Dorset, S Somerset) and new high-res output doesn't alter my view.On issue of tree damage: history shows us 50 or even 45kt gusts ample to damage/truncate/topple mature trees in some situations and especially oaks with pre-existing weaknesses. Conspiring to this likely outcome on Mon is pre-conditioning of weak trees with Sunday's winds and equally, soil moisture status (EURO4 and other output adds widely 20-40mm Sat PM-Mon AM), thus reducing anchorage. So any suggestion of 60kts being insufficient to topple trees is way wide of proven reality.

 

 

 

Beeches are FAR worse. Especially if the ground's saturated. Their roots are only a couple of feet from the surface, the whole root bole tips up like a plate. Also any trees covered in ivy are dodgy. the ivy adds to their wind resistance, although that's more of a problem in a late winter storm.

[Steve C]

Morning all.

Latest charts add no comfort. Here is something from the GFS midnight run.

I'm off till tomorrow lunchtime now and probably won't be able to keep up with developments, but will be back before the event.

Keep safe!

[cobbett]

this just posted by fergieweather fergieweatherfergieweatherIndeed. We consider sting jet potential increasingly likely as storm exits eastwards meaning backwash winds could be most problematic. Incidentally, all models now have a good grasp of the initiating perturbation and exhibit just minor variation at that juncture. Consequently, Ops Centre note higher than usual confidence on broad story even at this range albeit range of outcomes in MOGREPS-15, EC etc still needs emphasis. I said on air tonight that one area I think will get hammered is contiguous to Lyme Bay (Dorset, S Somerset) and new high-res output doesn't alter my view.On issue of tree damage: history shows us 50 or even 45kt gusts ample to damage/truncate/topple mature trees in some situations and especially oaks with pre-existing weaknesses. Conspiring to this likely outcome on Mon is pre-conditioning of weak trees with Sunday's winds and equally, soil moisture status (EURO4 and other output adds widely 20-40mm Sat PM-Mon AM), thus reducing anchorage. So any suggestion of 60kts being insufficient to topple trees is way wide of proven reality.

Hmm does my oak have a pre existing weakness ? No idea but thanks fergie that's really helped my nerves .... Not! Lol .Best check the house insurance

[Sussex Jules]

Morning all well not pleasant viewing from the charts this morning.

[abruzzi spur]

Morning

Off to Pembrokeshire today, via Brizzle, for the week

At the moment our Welsh patch looks to be just on the dividing line between yellow and amber warnings. Have packed a few lamps in case the power does go out. I'll send the odd post if I can get online to let you know what we are experiencing down there, before it gets to you. Stay safe all!

AS

[Summer of 76]

Best of luck AS and hopefully you see some great waves crashing on the rocks down there

[Summer of 76]

Morning all well not pleasant viewing from the charts this morning.

Agree, at the moment the models and charts don't appear to be backing down.

 

At the present time I have a gazebo strapped to the garage and fence for a children's halloween party on Sunday evening, no how quick can I get that down when it finishes at 7pm