Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[radiohead]

0Z GEM looks intense.

 

 

0Z NAE is 974mb, and deepening, at 48 hours

 

[knocker]

I have a sucpician it's not going to be that bad in thse parts. I hope not anyway.

 

 

[The PIT]

We're outside the zone of real interest but a slight wobble north would get us. Just looks like we're going to get wet that's all.

[radiohead]

0Z GEM has very tight isobars as the low deepens to 962mb

 

Strong gales inland

 

[Matty M]

Most models downgrade intensity of storm this morning and push system slightly further south.

 

Nothing major on this mornings output.

 

Major sigh of relief at the MetOffice.

 

- of course this is still a significant weather event but nothing too exceptional

Edited October 26, 2013 by Matty M

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Not sure what the models are saying as on my phone... I do feel there are some people that are getting a bit jealous of our bad boy storm though for us southerners you guys up north get plenty... On a more serious note. If a storm gets to worrying stage.. I'm off digging a hole to climb into

[karlos1983]

Most models downgrade intensity of storm this morning and push system slightly further south.Nothing major on this mornings output.Major sigh of relief at the MetOffice.- of course this is still a significant weather event but nothing too exceptional

Ian F of the met office doesn't seem to put that point across this morning?@fergieweather: W COUNTRY: Morning all. Latest UKMO analysis still v similar for Sun-Mon. Strongest winds still expected Lyme Bay/Dorset/S Som (70-80+mph)..

[cobbett]

Most models downgrade intensity of storm this morning and push system slightly further south. Nothing major on this mornings output. Major sigh of relief at the MetOffice. - of course this is still a significant weather event but nothing too exceptional

No noticeable difference that I can see from last night - no sigh of relief here

[Matty M]

Ian F of the met office doesn't seem to put that point across this morning?@fergieweather: W COUNTRY: Morning all. Latest UKMO analysis still v similar for Sun-Mon. Strongest winds still expected Lyme Bay/Dorset/S Som (70-80+mph)..

Of course there is likely still to be gusts in that range. This is still a significant storm but i feel this morning the models have taken away the 'extreme' element for the time being, Could all change once developments get underway.

[tinybill]

Unusual to have an amber warning this early, I wonder if this could be a stonker or not.

its  looking  bad  will not be surprised  to see it go red by  sunday

[radiohead]

Most models downgrade intensity of storm this morning and push system slightly further south.

 

Nothing major on this mornings output.

 

Major sigh of relief at the MetOffice.

 

- of course this is still a significant weather event but nothing too exceptional

 

Huh? 0Z GFS is just 1mb weaker than the 18Z and has pretty much the exact same track. More like minor run to run variation than a downgrade.

 

The GEM upgrades the storm rather than downgrading it (see above)

 

UKMO looks the same as the 12Z run to me, 980-970mb.

 

0Z ECM is 975mb at 48 hours, will have to wait on other sites to see the frames between 48-72.

Edited October 26, 2013 by radiohead

[snowangel32]

This must be a nightmare for the pros to predict the low hasn't even formed yet so no one truly knows what the final outcome will be I think we will see all kinds of charts today as the models try and get a grip on the track and intensity of the storm

[feb1991blizzard]

its  looking  bad  will not be surprised  to see it go red by  sunday

 

yes its only once they know for definite the areas involved that they will issue red.

[karlos1983]

This must be a nightmare for the pros to predict the low hasn't even formed yet so no one truly knows what the final outcome will be I think we will see all kinds of charts today as the models try and get a grip on the track and intensity of the storm

From what I understand from the Met point of view, track is fairly nailed on, but it's timing that is their biggest headache right now, ie will it hit when everyone's in bed or when the most populated areas of the uk will be on the way to work.

[Dan the Man]

Actually the depression has just started forming around the Bermuda area. Flying across the North Atlantic as we speak.

[radiohead]

Actually the depression has just started forming around the Bermuda area. Flying across the North Atlantic as we speak.

 

A bit further north than that now, you can see it as the 1010mb low in the Atlantic off the coast of Canada here :

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102606&size=large〈=en&area=eur

 

That updates hourly. Nice to track it as it makes it away over the Atlantic. It's a blend of surface observations and model data.

[Sainsbo]

Most models downgrade intensity of storm this morning and push system slightly further south.

 

Nothing major on this mornings output.

 

Major sigh of relief at the MetOffice.

 

- of course this is still a significant weather event but nothing too exceptional

 

 

Sorry, but this still looks quite worrying from where I'm standing.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

 

 

Bang on!

 

 

 

 

Is..that...her...?!

Edited October 26, 2013 by Surrey

[johnholmes]

Of course there is likely still to be gusts in that range. This is still a significant storm but i feel this morning the models have taken away the 'extreme' element for the time being, Could all change once developments get underway.

 

I disagree with that idea. Using the Met O Fax chart there has been no noticeable change in its depth at 00z and 12z Sunday nor out to 12z Monday as it tracks across the UK. This is likely to be, other than us actually tracking it in real time, the best idea of just where the low is going to track and its depth as it does so. The idea of damaging winds on its southern flank remains highly probable. Red alerts would seem a possibility from Met as the actual time approaches. This morning does suggest a very minor shift south but nothing more.

 

The low can now be tracked as it crosses the Atlantic using web sites with surface data, or infra red satellite shots, both stills and moview camera types. As it nears the UK then some weather buoys will aloow us to see how rapidly it is deepening before it comes on to land.

 

this for its probable position although it is a computer generated chart and can sometimes show wrong positions but by watching it hour to hour one can discount any erroneous plots.

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102607&size=standard〈=en&area=eur

 

The buoy data here

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/France.shtml

 

and sat data

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/auth.html

you will need to register but it is free

this one allows you to follow its movement in real time

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Edited October 26, 2013 by johnholmes

[Storme]

Sorry to sound daft Radiated as I am no weather expert, but that track looks quite high. Is it still on course as before or has it moved?

[Storme]

Sorry predictive text. Was speaking to Rediohead but I think these maps answer my question.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Anyone also taken into account the clocks go back on Sunday night... GFS also wants to keep the low over us longer

NAE also painting a picture now:

 

[Nol de Ruiter]

WRF ARW

[Polar Bear]

Based on all the discussions this morning and preceding days hope netweather the site is readr for more traffic tomorrow ... I feel all eyes will be on the discussion thread and model outputs.. Maybe even some newbies. I do wonder even if the isobars are tightly packed over Uk how much the influence of our land topography is taken into the models.. Ie it does tend to dissipate or reduce the wind speeds across uk. I think our forecasts do take that into account though don't they?

[Coast]

Wrap up your posts peeps, new thread coming shortly!