no air frost PROSPECT OF NO AIR FROST TIL NOVEMBER- SUCKS!

[iapennell]

I live at over 400 metres' elevation in the North Pennines (near Cumbria/Northumberland border)- and the air temperature so far this autumn has yet to drop below 3C;  the weather pattern looks like we might get some colder NW winds by Monday/Tuesday- but that could (like recent forecast "northerly snaps") whittle away with higher pressure over the SE and pressure remaining lower west/NW of the UK keeping the warm southerlies/south-westerlies to the month's end:  The prospect (with warmer-than-usual waters in the North Atlantic) remains real that mild SW winds will persist and ensure the entire month of October 2013 (even in the North Pennines) has not one single air frost.

 

I don't like this warm, dank muggy (and buggy) weather that allows flies and bugs to persist- without a little air frost the colours on the trees are not anything like as good!  By the time we get into November- with the very short days- we should be thinking about winter and the wind would have removed the leaves- brown and soggy-looking!

 

We also need cold weather to set in in October to ensure that the summer is appreciated (if it goes on too long people get pandered to with soft/warm weather much of the year), a good summer is not then so really appreciated.  The cold weather also instills some respect into folk (and empathy for others), in really severe wintry weather people pop in to see if elderly neighbours are OK (which they dont do if it's warm); Freezing temperatures keep the yobs that plague many streets in Britain today- firmly indoors!!

 

 

I also like the weather to turn cold so that little single men like myself can relax if they are out and about in the community:  When women and kids are in shorts, etc (as when the weather is warm)- there are some hypersensitive relatives with them who worry that a single man walking down the street near their kids/female friends/girlfriends might be a pervert looking at them (of course they may have their reasons)- but this makes a single man mind have to mind how they go about town.  I have had one or two accuse me of following their girlfriends (or them) when I lived in Lancaster some years ago (so I know this aggro happens)!!  All this awkward stuff is much less likely to happen in cold weather when fewer kids and women are about anyway (and those that are are bundled up to the nines)- so it's time the weather actually got colder!

 

So, all things considered- this mild October- and having to wait until November for an air frost- SUCKS!

 

Ian Pennell 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Osbourne One-Nil
Text made smaller by someone in Appleby for someone in Alston

[feb1991blizzard]

And looking at the Met office 30 dayer and current modelling of the PV, we might not get one until December!!

[Mark Neal.]

I agree Ian. Our lowest temperature was 3.7c overnight. That felt cold, we are lacking cold crisp frosty mornings.

[iapennell]

Of course, one of the advantages of living in a wild rural area is that there are not so many women and children around who could cause one hassle in the warm weather- but the absence of cold weather until November is still something I dislike:  As a weather observer I like to record interesting weather conditions,- raw weather that is beautiful to look at:  Cloud with a little drizzle and 12C day after day is naff; but a morning of -5C with thick hoar frost glistening in the morning light (and bringing about blazing golds, crimsons and oranges on the trees) would be fantastic at this time of year.  An air frost will also get rid of the bugs, spiders and flies which cause annoyance and irritation- and have now done so for several months.

 

An air frost cannot come soon enough- one is long overdue!! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Of course, one of the advantages of living in a wild rural area is that there are not so many women and children around who could cause one hassle in the warm weather- but the absence of cold weather until November is still something I dislike:  As a weather observer I like to record interesting weather conditions,- raw weather that is beautiful to look at:  Cloud with a little drizzle and 12C day after day is naff; but a morning of -5C with thick hoar frost glistening in the morning light (and bringing about blazing golds, crimsons and oranges on the trees) would be fantastic at this time of year.  An air frost will also get rid of the bugs, spiders and flies which cause annoyance and irritation- and have now done so for several months.

 

An air frost cannot come soon enough- one is long overdue!! 

 

At least a storm could happen with this mild muck, really though the only thing that gives me a buzz apart from heavy disruptive snowfall is very active weather, I would love to actually see a tornado, or really intense fork lightening all over the sky continuous like they get in America.

[Tony27]

i don't usually get air frosts till november down here, i cut my grass today as it was so long, i hope that's the last time i have to cut it this year cos it was very wet and muddy, i usually give the lawn its first cut in march and the last in late october, the leaves around here are still mostly green, it does my head in when joe public say winter goes on for far to long, the mild season lasts for about 8 months, warm weather fans only have to wait about 4 months till the sun has some strength in it again and the daffs are coming out, snow fans in the south usually see their last snow in february or march and normally have to wait all the way till December to see snow or even a cold spell, the warmies don't realise how lucky they are

Edited October 25, 2013 by Tony27

[Weather-history]

Oxford didn't recorded a single air frost during the second half of 1953.

RAF Mildenhall recorded 39 double digit minima for both November and December 1953

[Mark Parsons]

I don't have data to back it but i'm sure it is becoming more common getting our first frosts later over the last decade or so and on a couple of winters hardly any frost at all!!

[mikeocarroll]

Might be a possibility for some air frosts on Monday night or Tuesday night after the low clears, as pressure builds from the azores and upper temps remain lowish. Depends how much cloud is dragged in, but wouldn't be surprised to see a frost especially in the usual frost hollows.

 

 

 

Wouldn't be surprised if min temps in rural areas are a few degrees lower than predicted by the gfs chart above.

[Bottesford]

Of course, one of the advantages of living in a wild rural area is that there are not so many women and children around who could cause one hassle in the warm weather- ....

 

This bit has left me a little baffled - in what way do women (and children) cause 'hassle' in warm weather? OK kids might want to play outside more but women? Lost me...

Besides it might have been mild lately but its also been very wet so I suspect most kids are indoors anyway - especially with it getting dark by 6pm.

 

No air frosts usually here till November - which is fine with me. Gives me a longer season in the garden and keeps the costs down. Once we're into late Nov it can turn cold.

[smithyweather]

Well to be honest i've already seen my first frost.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&state=United+K&osum=no&fmt=html&ord=REV&ano=2013&mes=10&day=11&hora=18&ndays=1&Send=send

It wasn't a strong frost but still. We don't really have that many cold nights and I actually find that recently the nights are warmer due to cloud

[Summer Sun]

You may have even longer to wait yet if one doesn't arrive in the brief cool down next week after the storm leaves

 

Matt Hugo has tweeted this, this morning

 

 

 

MattHugo81

Latest EC32 maintains an unsettled +NAO pattern throughout the bulk of November with little evidence of a pattern change #unsettled

Thats likely to mean this mild weather is going to last a long time yet, of course we can get frost's in unsettled spells but you have to relie on winds falling light

Edited October 25, 2013 by Summer Sun

[4wd]

This is hardly unusual though, it's not unknown for November to barely touch zero too.

[Richard2901]

 

Mid-October used to be the time for the first air frost now it's more like mid-November or even December in the case of the rock-bottom barrel-scraping pile of dross that was autumn 2011. 

 

By this stage of October the long-term mean min is below 5C which means an air frost should be more likely than a double digit min. However while we had to endure a further three double digit horrors on the trot earlier this week the lowest so far is 1.9C on 17th Oct with September having had more nights below 5C than October.

 

It's ridiculous with yet another ghastly October following on from 1999, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2011. It's the equivalent of getting a December like 2009 or 2010 every second year but that would never happen as it's only bad things that we have to suffer an overload of these days.

 

It would certainly be very unusual to not record air frost in November even at my coastal location. Only twice has this happened, at official stations, in the last century: in 1931 when the lowest was 2C and in 1997 when it was just above zero. Both years however had air frost in October so there has never been an official frost free autumn. My own weather station dipped no lower than 0.8C in autumn 2011 but there was a slight frost recorded at the airport on 6th November.

 

[smithyweather]

 

 

Mid-October used to be the time for the first air frost now it's more like mid-November or even December in the case of the rock-bottom barrel-scraping pile of dross that was autumn 2011. 

 

By this stage of October the long-term mean min is below 5C which means an air frost should be more likely than a double digit min. However while we had to endure a further three double digit horrors on the trot earlier this week the lowest so far is 1.9C on 17th Oct with September having had more nights below 5C than October.

 

It's ridiculous with yet another ghastly October following on from 1999, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2011. It's the equivalent of getting a December like 2009 or 2010 every second year but that would never happen as it's only bad things that we have to suffer an overload of these days.

 

It would certainly be very unusual to not record air frost in November even at my coastal location. Only twice has this happened, at official stations, in the last century: in 1931 when the lowest was 2C and in 1997 when it was just above zero. Both years however had air frost in October so there has never been an official frost free autumn. My own weather station dipped no lower than 0.8C in autumn 2011 but there was a slight frost recorded at the airport on 6th November.

 

I think in Autumn it is touch and go whether you get a frost, you have to reach a lot of criteria to get it. I find that quite often we nearly get a frost (close but no cigar), like i'm sure if you look through the data on previous Novembers you will find a lot of 0.8's and 0.6's, that happens here a lot in October. To get a frost in October we need clear skies, no wind and no rain with a slightly chilly airmass. So far I have had a frost this year (October 11th) but no others, tbh that frost was very light and it was only below 0c for about an hour at the very most. 

 

 

 

My average min for today is 41F so yes you are right we should be getting low single figure mins but we aren't. I've lost count of the number of double figure mins, it's kind of disgusting at this stage. Obviously it's normal to get a few double figure nights, just not at this extent. I have actually observed a trend of frosts to come earlier, so it is different to yours. 

 

Another thing i've noted about this autumn is the complete lack of single figure maxes, I have only record one this month and looking back at the data for last year and the years before that it seems around the 15th October we go down hill and generally stay in single figure maxes. Don't think that will happen until about middle November at this stage - and looking at the data that is very rare. 

Edited October 25, 2013 by smithyweather

[Don]

You may have even longer to wait yet if one just arrive in the brief cool down next week after the storm leaves

 

Matt Hugo has tweeted this, this morning

 

 

Thats likely to mean this mild weather is going to last a long time yet, of course we can get frost's in unsettled spells but you have to relie on winds falling light

 

Thank God it's only late October and not late December.  That tweet would really have coldies reeling!

[Summer of 95]

Absolute minimum for October so far is higher than for September, and we haven't seen a ground frost let alone an air one. In 2009 the first airfrost was on December 1st, but that was exceptional, and October had a lower mean minimum than this year. Prior to 1998 or so the first one was typically in October, since then it's been early November on average.

 

That thing about the bugs is really noticeable- there are flies, daddy long legs, harvest spiders and even wasps still creeping around everywhere, they haven't died off at all. And the grass is still growing like it's June. 

[forecaster]

I am usually defensive of the EC32, but the run from 3rd October valid for next week did predict higher than normal pressure just south of Greenland (extending N), with a weak signal for lower than normal pressure to our NE. I don't think that will verify too well.

As it currently predicts a continually unsettled spell though, you would expect periods like that are closer to climate norm and easier to predict. 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I agree these mild and unsettled days are not ideal. But we have what we have. These mild autumns and springs are not going to go away. We are stuck with them for our lifetimes barring the onset of a major natural climatic change occurring such as an Interglacial period.

Not every one will be mild though. The long cool/ cold 2012/13 season proved that.

After getting upset last spring about the delay to any warmth, I have stopped letting it worry me now. The sun will shine again soon enough and snow will fall this winter no doubt.

Edited October 25, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Nick L]

The lack of any chilly mornings is really noticeable. Need a few sharp frosts to kill off the bugs!

[cheese]

This is hardly unusual though, it's not unknown for November to barely touch zero too.

It's also not unknown for July to barely reach 80F but that wouldn't stop people on here complaining about it all the time.

 

That being said, our first air frost, on average, is in October, but it doesn't always occur in October. ALWAYS before December though. If we don't get one until December then we'll be pushing record territory, for this area. In central London, the first air frost may not occur until January.

Edited October 25, 2013 by cheese

[4wd]

Just as an example since my WX station has been running (March 2009) the lowest October temp recorded is only -0.6CThe following winters have been among the coldest and snowiest in decades.  

[Eugene]

Yes Ian the lack of air frosts does suck BIG time, the pattern we are in is horrendous with rain frequency really high and starting to make it unpleasant underfoot in the countryside, we really need a run of hard frosts to make it useable again, I guess the mildles are happy though even if their is structural damage, ALIWBM.

 

Your last paragraph was abit strange though Ian, the rest was good though

[Jax]

yes! no scraping the car windows at 6 am every day then.

 

 

Result!

Edited October 25, 2013 by Jax

[hillbilly]

the total air frosts here were the most since 1979 last year [October 12 to may 13] having 70 air frosts . it is very unlikely this season will beat that more than likely being conciderably less