no air frost PROSPECT OF NO AIR FROST TIL NOVEMBER- SUCKS!

[iapennell]

Sadly, it is looking likely that I will not be recording an air frost in October 2013- very deep depression sweeping across England over next 48 hours; strong Westerlies off the North Atlantic set to dominate the last few days of October- and into November! 

[Summer Sun]

The average number of days with air frosts for Darlo based on the 81 to 10 average is 1.9

[be cause]

frosts had become the 'norm' the last few autumns .. I for one am delighted to have a long mild extension to summer. I vote for a frosty winter .. but until then may the south wind blow .. !

[Jax]

frosts had become the 'norm' the last few autumns .. I for one am delighted to have a long mild extension to summer. I vote for a frosty winter .. but until then may the south wind blow .. !

amen

[smithyweather]

Well winter is pretty darn close now.

[Summer Sun]

Well winter is pretty darn close now.

 

Indeed it is 8 weeks as yesterday will be the shortest day 5 weeks today will be the first day of winter

Edited October 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[cheese]

Well winter is pretty darn close now.

And it can't come soon enough.. might get rid of these pesky insects, and a few mildies too.. lol.

[fUnKy]

To the op, if you want to go out for a walk, go out for a walk. Who cares what women and children think about you, unless they're yours of course.

[iapennell]

To the op, if you want to go out for a walk, go out for a walk. Who cares what women and children think about you, unless they're yours of course.

 

Fortunately I have none- and I do not intend to have any!  Perhaps also fortunately (as someone commented above) that if it is dark, windy and wet (and just mildly cold) that would keep them indoors- the clocks went back last night (dark evenings) and the forecast is for storms over the next 48 hours, so (again) its likely none will be out.  Also I live in a remote rural community in the North Pennines, so it only becomes an issue when I venture into Carlisle or Hexham to do shopping (which I do have to occasionally).  Besides, I don't have to do  my Christmas Shopping 'til December by which time they will all (fingers crossed) need to be well bundled up!! 

[Ian Brown]

 

I think in Autumn it is touch and go whether you get a frost, you have to reach a lot of criteria to get it. I find that quite often we nearly get a frost (close but no cigar), like i'm sure if you look through the data on previous Novembers you will find a lot of 0.8's and 0.6's, that happens here a lot in October. To get a frost in October we need clear skies, no wind and no rain with a slightly chilly airmass. So far I have had a frost this year (October 11th) but no others, tbh that frost was very light and it was only below 0c for about an hour at the very most. 

 

 

 

My average min for today is 41F so yes you are right we should be getting low single figure mins but we aren't. I've lost count of the number of double figure mins, it's kind of disgusting at this stage. Obviously it's normal to get a few double figure nights, just not at this extent. I have actually observed a trend of frosts to come earlier, so it is different to yours. 

 

Another thing i've noted about this autumn is the complete lack of single figure maxes, I have only record one this month and looking back at the data for last year and the years before that it seems around the 15th October we go down hill and generally stay in single figure maxes. Don't think that will happen until about middle November at this stage - and looking at the data that is very rare. 

 

The m/era as defined began in the late 80s, and many Autumn winter periods at various stages since then have been frost free. Zonality began for now on the 15th October, and could easily last for 5/6 weeks, so what is being experienced is normal when compared to past 25 year averages. 

[AderynCoch]

Personally I've found this October interesting for its unusual amount of convective/thundery activity in the second half of the month. I don't previously recall there being so much potential for thunderstorms at this time of year. The southwesterly regime has also brought a surprising amount of sunshine to my location; not endless days of clear blue skies by any means but more than I was expecting, and a relief after the oppressively dull start to the month (I don't understand how a sluggish SEerly flow can deliver less sunshine here than a sluggish SWerly flow).

 

That said, I definitely agree that the ongoing dearth of cold has been very disappointing. I don't usually expect frost here until sometime in November (though it's not unusual to get it in October), but I'd expect to see other places at least have a chance of getting one. When somewhere like Alston can't get a frost you know things are grim.

 

We sit and wait...

Edited October 28, 2013 by AderynCoch

[Summer Sun]

With the met office expecting a mild November some places may not see any frosts to at least December

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2821728

[smithyweather]

Meh. I don't listen to what they have to say, I will wait until about Mid-November and then see what happens. The Mild has to give in at some stage (although at the moment it looks as though the mild has gone - here anyway as it 9c outside right now) and to be honest with you I don't really think that this mild nonsense is going to last much longer into November as the days get shorter. 

Edited October 28, 2013 by smithyweather

[Snowyowl9]

First ground frost last year was the end of September.

First air frost was late on november29th.

[March Blizzard]

Meh. I don't listen to what they have to say, I will wait until about Mid-November and then see what happens. The Mild has to give in at some stage (although at the moment it looks as though the mild has gone - here anyway as it 9c outside right now) and to be honest with you I don't really think that this mild nonsense is going to last much longer into November as the days get shorter.

That's the problem, though, the mild doesn't "have" to give up at any point. It is, after all, the default climate of the UK. If anything, more things need to fall into place to see cold weather than mild weather, not the other way round.

[AderynCoch]

It depends what you mean by "mild". Certainly "milder than average" isn't the default climate, otherwise it would be called "average".

 

It's certainly been unusually milder than average recently and it would be unusual for it to continue for weeks on end. Thankfully temperatures look like becoming more normal (if still on the mild side).

[Nights King]

That's the problem, though, the mild doesn't "have" to give up at any point. It is, after all, the default climate of the UK. If anything, more things need to fall into place to see cold weather than mild weather, not the other way round.

 

I'm not sure that makes total sense?

 

Surely we get similar amounts of colder than average weather to make the average?

[March Blizzard]

I'm not sure that makes total sense? Surely we get similar amounts of colder than average weather to make the average?

We were talking about frosts; temperatures below freezing - this falls into the "cold" category. In most places in the UK even average minima are above freezing in the winter - mild. So, on average, the UK is "mild" rather than cold. For "cold" to occur conditions from the norm (mild) need to materialise. Therefore, we see more mild than cold.Of course, it all depends on how you define "mild" and "cold". As the thread is about frost, for the sake of argument, I include everything below 0C as cold.Are you confused enough yet?

[cheese]

We were talking about frosts; temperatures below freezing - this falls into the "cold" category. In most places in the UK even average minima are above freezing in the winter - mild. So, on average, the UK is "mild" rather than cold. For "cold" to occur conditions from the norm (mild) need to materialise. Therefore, we see more mild than cold.

Of course, it all depends on how you define "mild" and "cold". As the thread is about frost, for the sake of argument, I include everything below 0C as cold.

Are you confused enough yet?

The UK is 'mild' by default considering the northerly latitude - but we are talking from a UK perspective here, not a global perspective. Getting an air frost in October is perfectly average for much of the country - not getting an air frost until December would be considered exceptional here.

[Thundery wintry showers]

This October has been unusual for its absence of chilly nights with a widespread ground frost in inland/rural/suburban areas, and that pattern looks like continuing well into November, with the latest GFS run suggesting minima no lower than 3-4C during the next 10 days, and the ECMWF runs are suggesting a similar thing.

 

The most outstanding example of a frost-free October was in 2001, and we then had wintry showers from a northerly on the 8th/9th November, but it would require a significant pattern change to open up the back door for significant northerly incursions during the first third of this November.

[Snowyowl9]

October 2006 was very warm more southerly and thundery,then there were a few air frosts the beginning of nov.

[iapennell]

October 2006 was very warm more southerly and thundery,then there were a few air frosts the beginning of nov.

AT LEAST  in the Octobers of 2005 and 2006 (both of which were very mild for October) I did record one air frost for each of those Octobers at my home in the North Pennines: In October 2004 I recorded none at all and this was also true of October 2001 (which had a mean temperature of over 10C).  I am gutted that October 2013 looks set to pass without one single air frost for the first time in nine years.  As far as I am concerned the mild conditions persisting throughout October this year have been responsible for bugs in gardens, lack of nice crisp mornings (and with it a distinct lack of nice colours on the trees)!!

 

Another thing, we up North missed the big storms which battered the South today- it was just an average damp, breezy day (maybe a tad colder than recently) like so many we have had this month! 

Edited October 28, 2013 by iapennell

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have mixed feelings about the strong winds- I'd have wanted something with more "oomph" than we got yesterday, but not quite as much as they had down south today!

[March Blizzard]

The UK is 'mild' by default considering the northerly latitude - but we are talking from a UK perspective here, not a global perspective. Getting an air frost in October is perfectly average for much of the country - not getting an air frost until December would be considered exceptional here.

Agreed, but aren't we talking about prolonged conditions, rather than one off events? I don't deny that it's rare not to get frost at some point in Oct/Nov but my original assertion hinges on the argument that mild weather has to cease at some point. I'm of the opinion that it doesn't.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I have mixed feelings about the strong winds- I'd have wanted something with more "oomph" than we got yesterday, but not quite as much as they had down south today!

 

Ian, I don't get what was special about the strength of the winds. The thing that made this storm different was the track....it took a rare track across S England. Normally depressions of that strength plough across Scotland. 99 MPH was supposedly the top wind speed in a very exposed, southerly location off the mainland. 99MPH is frequently recorded in places such as Mumbles, Capel Curig, and further N etc.

 

Still, it was a noteworthy event, and for some a deadly one unfortunately.