Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->

[snefnug]

Crumbs, me middle age snow wish creeping in, "just enough for christmas day and cleared off by next bin day", while my innner child goes, snow, snow, and more snow, pleeease!!!

[Panayiotis]

Yes Thursday is the day which needs watching, I think the GFS has yet to get the full detail regarding uppers. The high res NASA model has consistently been showing -6C uppers for the 19th across Wales:

Its interesting to note that the coldest uppers arrive when the sun has gone down, which is great as the sun's heat will not have an affect on any developing wintry showers. With these uppers a streamer gets going over the relatively warm Atlantic, which is shown perfectly by the model:

So with a bit of elevation some people could see snow showers with sleet/hail/rain on lower ground but this could change as we get nearer the date.

The GFS ensembles show this cold spell being more significant than the fail northerly earlier in the month: (For Cardiff)

Edited December 17, 2013 by Panayiotis

[whiskers]

Wow what a nice surprise,had to scrape the car this morning,lots of lovely leaf pattern ice and pockets of dense fog,what a difference the weather makes,feeling jolly and festive this morning,please continue till xmas

[andymusic]

Yellow Alert of Wind for Wales

 

Yellow Alert of Wind for Wales : Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Powys, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Neath Port Talbot, Swansea, Pembrokeshire, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil, Vale of Glamorgan, Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent, Cardiff, Newport, Torfaen & Monmouthshire valid from 1500 Wed 18 Dec to 2359 Wed 18 Dec

 

Yellow Alert of Rain for Wales

Yellow Alert of Rain for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen & Vale of Glamorgan valid from 1500 Fri 20 Dec to 1500 Sat 21 Dec

Edited December 17, 2013 by andymusic

[Blackjack]

Am i right in thinking that if the upper temps can drop and we draw in colder air around the 24/25 we could potentially be looking at blizzard conditions. The low that is heading our way is still showing as being very potent for the festive period. The Dam line is be favourable.

 

Would -4 uppers coupled with this low produce something spectcular? Or do the lows coming of the atlantic draw in warmer air therefore scuppering any significant snowfall?

[Bobby]

Am i right in thinking that if the upper temps can drop and we draw in colder air around the 24/25 we could potentially be looking at blizzard conditions. The low that is heading our way is still showing as being very potent for the festive period. The Dam line is be favourable.

 

Would -4 uppers coupled with this low produce something spectcular? Or do the lows coming of the atlantic draw in warmer air therefore scuppering any significant snowfall?

 

I really can't see any lowland snow, on the mountains perhaps. If anything wintry falls to low levels I can't see it settling. Significant settling snowfall to low levels, out of the question I would say sadly.

[andymusic]

Bobby - I'd say you have a better chance than most being at 270m - Blackjack - the lows do drag colder uppers in with them to - it's a complex set up - all depends how far south the lows come and then drag the cold air with them - but due to the marginality - lying snow - as Bobby said will only probably be for places at elevation right now!

 

here's thursday lunchtime

 

 

xmas eve

 

 

Edited December 17, 2013 by andymusic

[Panayiotis]

Yes low level settling snow is unlikely but would be great to see the stuff falling for the festive side of things! Latest NAE shows -4C/-5C across Wales:

However when the 18z updates tonight I expect colder uppers to come over us. Its when these colder uppers arrive, is when we should see the showers activity increase. Places along the Bristol Channel and west may see some sharper wintry showers especially during the evening and night:

So overall looking festive, but things will most likely be put down to nowcasting and radar watching! I certainly will be!

Edited December 17, 2013 by Panayiotis

[J10]

As others have said a chance of some wintriness Thursday, but away from High ground, I think that is the extent of it.

[andymusic]

care of mr ian fergusson

 

PS: watch for potential bolstering of snow signal in S for some on Thursday based on v latest output.... more to follow. Coldies: keep the faith ;-)

 

 

an idea of what ian's potential snow chances - could certainly give some of us a surprise or two

 

 

xmas eve showing potential again

 

 

 

gfs 18z - very very cold looking fI into new year's eve - not likely to happen that way - but who knows - another gfs trend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - we hope so!

Edited December 17, 2013 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

care of mr ian fergusson

 

PS: watch for potential bolstering of snow signal in S for some on Thursday based on v latest output.... more to follow. Coldies: keep the faith ;-)

 

 

an idea of what ian's potential snow chances - could certainly give some of us a surprise or two

 

 

xmas eve showing potential again

 

 

 

gfs 18z - very very cold looking fI into new year's eve - not likely to happen that way - but who knows - another gfs trend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - we hope so!

Yes Andy with the small troughs running through Thursday night across  Wales need to watch for wintry mix especially in heavier bursts  radar watching night ahead lol.

[Panayiotis]

Yes Andy with the small troughs running through Thursday night across  Wales need to watch for wintry mix especially in heavier bursts  radar watching night ahead lol.

No college the next day=I will be up as long as there is PPN shown on the radar!

[Panayiotis]

Heavy snow now for parts of Wales shown on latest NAE:

[andymusic]

latest nae 6z

 

[welshwizard]

Hi Guys some are talking of poss of snow on xmas eve xmas day? I heard on either bbc or itv this morn that there will be a storm with heavy rain and strong winds tonight and they also said looks very much the same for xmas eve and day. why would they say that when the charts are showing poss snow and cold? also why bother this far away as we know things change every few hrs according to the charts. wind is picking up right now out there guys.

[andymusic]

xmas eve - and day on todays latest output - very stormy and potentially wintry

 

 

 

the above won't amount to much mind you as xmas day itself into boxing day looks wet and windy/stormy with a south bound low pressure system winding itself up

 

Edited December 18, 2013 by andymusic

[welshwizard]

so by the looks we wont be having a marque party on boxing night with the weather they predicting? rain be ok but wind be a big no no.

[andymusic]

nae 12z - moving snow west and north a tad - alot of Wales seeing snow on this one

 

 

xmas eve again highlighted for snow for Wales

 

 

here's another xmas eve map - you never know eh!

 

Edited December 18, 2013 by andymusic

[Blackjack]

Tomorrow is looking mighty interesting. It may be wet slushy stuff, but if it hits during rush hour there may be a few traffic jams. Dowlais Top may get interesting on the way home

[andymusic]

darkness falls and the wind picks up - and current radar looks very angry indeed!

 

really gusting up here now - plus very heavy rain! - nasty weather

Edited December 18, 2013 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

darkness falls and the wind picks up - and current radar looks very angry indeed!

Very very pretty red and pinks glad i live on high ground Andy!http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/wl_latest_radar.html

[TonyH]

Totted up over an inch so far today and the winds bust me anemometer a few more quid down the drain..recorded a 52mph gust at 4 if anything some worse ones since but they are under recording so somethings up up on the roof!

[andymusic]

xc weather gusts in Wales around 50 - 60mph right now - sorry to hear about your anemometer Tony - get someone to get you a new one for xmas

 

edit - some gusts are over 60 - Milford Haven = 63mph

 

CRIKEY - meto radar - nearly all of Wales under red or pink - that looks nasty! - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

Edited December 18, 2013 by andymusic

[TonyH]

Cheers Andy it's an awkward project with it on the roof!

[snefnug]

On the model output forum, do they ever look back from where they are now and go either "see, told you so" or "crickey, didnt see that one!" cos its blowing a hooley here and the leaks are back and potential SNOW tomorrow.