Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->

[TonyH]

Very windy here this evening, my site seems exposed to the northerly gusts of 44mph - second highest since the anemometer went on the roof this Summer.

Edited November 20, 2013 by TonyH

[gareth moo]

What's that? Streamer from the NE? It's properly cold out there. Someone at altitude in the Eastern valleys is going to get something white out of this, surely.

[Panayiotis]

Sleety rain here in Cardiff, more PPN coming my way, I think I might stay up to see it pass then im off to bed!

Edited November 21, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Buriedundersnow]

heres winter 2009/10 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvE1KWepOkM

[Snowyowl9]

A winter like 1995/96 would be good to see again,just the right balance....nothing too extreme like in recent winters.....

[keithlucky]

A winter like 1995/96 would be good to see again,just the right balance....nothing too extreme like in recent winters.....

Yes i dont want this winter to be to harsh because the NHS at breaking point and Fuel companies raising fuel prices ,only the poor and the old will suffer ,with the question they ask themselves do i feed myself or do i turn the fire on?

Edited November 21, 2013 by keithlucky

[mikeocarroll]

GFS ensembles this morning hint at some cold potential in early December:

 

 

In fact GFS operational FI this morning looks pretty decent with heights across the western side of the pole and the core of the PV squished out towards Siberia.

 

I'm not generally for FI straw-clutching but it's the best there is from a snow-loving perspective at the moment, no prospect of the white stuff in the next 10 days or so for us :-(

[TonyH]

Cold one min -7.3c

Colder than any official UK station:

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en&state=United+K&rank=100&ano=2013&mes=11&day=23&hora=12&Send=send

Edited November 23, 2013 by TonyH

[mikeocarroll]

-6.0c here this morning. Brrrr. Still sub-zero now.

[dbaloo]

My partner had a weather warning sent to her work from Caerphilly County Council last week warning them that 100 days of winter was coming, they should be prepared to take action and be ready for enforced closures as the snow could be awful this winter.........................now that's what I call covering yourself in advance!!!!!

[TonyH]

Hmm if local Councils are peddling that tripe then there is not much hope for us

Edited November 24, 2013 by TonyH

[andymusic]

weather very quiet right now - just cold/frosty nights and cool sunnyish days - meto going for a return to zonal - but possibly models hint at further cold/snow potential 1st/3rd December onwards - for now though - a fairly benign spell of weather! - certainly none of the "100 days of snow and blizzards" in any outlook right now - but of course - it could all change very very quickly!

[dbaloo]

Hmm if local Councils are peddling that tripe then there is not much hope for us

My thoughts exactly. I do not see why they need to issue such rubbish, i guess it's just something they do in the very very small chance we do have a extremely snowy winter or they had been reading the daily mail/express and jumped on the bandwagon!

[Ukwoody]

 or they had been reading the daily mail/express and jumped on the bandwagon!

Sadly that sounds like where it is from. You'd think they'd have checked it out first wouldn't you.

[keithlucky]

My thoughts exactly. I do not see why they need to issue such rubbish, i guess it's just something they do in the very very small chance we do have a extremely snowy winter or they had been reading the daily mail/express and jumped on the bandwagon!

That"s why the met office have given up long range forecasts because they are rubbish ,You can try to look at trends the effect of solar cycle 24 with so little activity a.t.m the effect of this is due to hit northern hemisphere around the end of December so in theory January should be very cold, we shall see.

Edited November 24, 2013 by keithlucky

[mikeocarroll]

My partner had a weather warning sent to her work from Caerphilly County Council last week warning them that 100 days of winter was coming, they should be prepared to take action and be ready for enforced closures as the snow could be awful this winter.........................now that's what I call covering yourself in advance!!!!!

 

Well there's 90 days of winter coming so they're almost right in the first part...

[keithlucky]

A brief N Westerly across the UK Friday-Saturday before HP builds back from the West

with wintry showers possible

Edited November 25, 2013 by keithlucky

[J10]

That North Westerly is considerably less potent than the last one.

My thoughts exactly. I do not see why they need to issue such rubbish, i guess it's just something they do in the very very small chance we do have a extremely snowy winter or they had been reading the daily mail/express and jumped on the bandwagon!

Someone in work mentioned this today, I pointed out that Mr Madden says the same every year.

[marclt]

The Met Office are going for a colder December and temps below average for winter as a whole.

 

We'll see...

[Blackjack]

Models forum going loopy over deep FI charts. Got to love the maschocistic nature of it all. Very entertaining.

[J10]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2013;sess=

 

The official NW forecast is out for this winter

 

In Summary

 

However, the forecast headlines are:

• Average to slightly colder than average temperatures.
• Drier than average - notably December.
• Weak high pressure anomaly, especially towards the north of the UK as the jet stream is deflected south.
• Main risk of significant cold later in winter, but this is considered low risk presently.
• Possible cold start to winter.

[keithlucky]

Models forum going loopy over deep FI charts. Got to love the maschocistic nature of it all. Very entertaining.

Yes let the fun begin! a lot of head banging over the coming week will there be blizzards come Friday with a strong northerly flow will it still be there next Friday, will there be  a a few jumping over cliffs when it may not occur ,and how many OMGS will occur over the coming week!

Edited November 28, 2013 by keithlucky

[J10]

Yes let the fun begin! a lot of head banging over the coming week will there be blizzards come Friday with a strong northerly flow will it still be there next Friday, will there be  a a few jumping over cliffs when it may not occur ,and how many OMGS will occur over the coming week!

 

My guess 250, is there a prize.

[andymusic]

here we go again - the artic returns - next friday - just outside the reliable!

 

 

Saturday aswell

 

 

 

major push of cold artic air on the gfs 12z - at the moment 2 - 3 days of cold - could extend further though!

Edited November 29, 2013 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Snow depth charts for Friday 6th of December