South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 31/12/13

[snow raven]

Evening all,

Lovely day here today - what a difference a day makes and so pleased I was off work to enjoy it!

Sorry to hear it's back to wind and rain tomorrow though. I hope you all stay safe.

Just seen the weather on BBC1 just now... Sunday looks awful!

Edited January 2, 2014 by snow raven

[Mesoscale]

Havent seen one since ive been living here but the local river has a flood alert crazy! I can see why our garden has turned into a swamp!

[Eskimo]

Northern coasts of Cornwall & Devon, the Western coast of Wales look bad late tomorrow morning. 

[Snowangel-MK]

Sorry to hear it's back to wind and rain tomorrow though. I hope you all stay safe.Just seen the weather on BBC1 just now... Sunday looks awful!

Evening SR - pleased you had a nice day as well today :-) I put the warning up for Sunday earlier but here it is again .....Yellow Alert of Rain for London & South East England : Hampshire, Surrey, Kent, Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Isle of Wight, Portsmouth, Southampton & West Sussex Outbreaks of rain, heavy at times, will affect the UK on Sunday. Quite widespread accumulations of 10-20 mm are then likely with locally in excess of 40 mm possible over some higher ground.This additional rainfall, following the recent wet weather, means that the public should be aware of an increased risk of both surface water and river flooding as well as disruption to transport.Issued at: 1233 on Thu 2 Jan 2014Valid from: 0900 on Sun 5 Jan 2014Valid to: 2359 on Sun 5 Jan 2014Another spell of wet and windy weather will affect the British Isles on Sunday as a new, deep depression becomes anchored over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The associated frontal system is then expected to move eastwards across Britain, perhaps not clearing the far east and southeast until Monday morning.

[john pike]

just a brief on what ecm show

 

from 168 9th january ( my birthday )

 

wet am dryer pm

 

gusty westerly flow

 

temps around 8 degrees

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

192

 

 

ridge of high pressure over the south east

 

so looks dry

 

breezy but not strong south west wind

 

temps around 10 degrees

 

 

216

 

11th

 

 

1015 high pressure should be strong enough to deflect any showers northwards

 

weak south west to west flow

 

temps chilly around 6 degrees

 

 

240

 

 

 

a breezy west flow

 

enough pressure to keep it dry

 

temps chilly around 5 degrees

 

watch the low to our north  if that can drop south we will see north westerlies

 

 

these are not great for colder yet but a start in the right direction

 

however i am looking for dry for now and these are looking better than now by a long way

 

lets see what the ensembles show later

Edited January 2, 2014 by john pike

[loopydreamer]

Someone posted on the severe atlantic storms thread that there is already flooding in Cork

[john pike]

heres a ramp chart from the 12z gfs

 

[tinybill]

not  liking  the weekend storm one  little bit 

[tinybill]

http://www.eyeballhq.tv/surfcheck/westward-ho/

 

web  cam down in Cornwall always  good to watch  in a storm

[Jax]

Evening all

 

Tonight/Tomorrows storms and the weekend  already making the news now, calm here ATM but expect that to be different in the morning.

[john pike]

hi tiny

 

not going to update until late

 

need to see where that low goes on the next update on monday

 

will do it but may be a bit late

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=6&carte=&mode=0

 

5th  jan  =  935 mb that  is  low

[tinybill]

first  one for the south coast ,shipping forecast

North Foreland to Selsey Bill

Strong winds are forecast

24 hour forecast: Wind Southwesterly, backing southerly for a time, 5 to 7, increasing 7 to severe gale 9. Sea state Moderate or rough becoming rough or very rough later. Weather Rain then squally showers. Visibility Good, occasionally poor.

Outlook for the following 24 hours: Wind Southerly or southwesterly 6 to gale 8, occasionally severe gale 9 at first. Sea state Rough or very rough, becoming moderate or rough. Weather Rain or squally showers. Visibility Good, occasionally poor.      

  next  one east  coast  shipping forecast

Gibraltar Point to North Foreland

 

Gibraltar Point to North Foreland

Strong winds are forecast

24 hour forecast: Wind Southerly or southwesterly 5 to 7, increasing 7 to severe gale 9 later. Sea state Slight or moderate, becoming moderate or rough later. Weather Rain then showers. Visibility Good, occasionally poor.

Outlook for the following 24 hours: Wind Southwesterly 7 to severe gale 9, backing southerly 6 to gale 8 later. Sea state Moderate or rough, occasionally very rough at first in east. Weather Rain or showers. Visibility Good, occasionally poor.

Edited January 2, 2014 by tinybill

[anything-but]

not  liking  the weekend storm one  little bit 

 

 

This the Sunday/Monday one? There`s so many low pressures about currently it`s confusing at times!

[Whereisthesnow?]

Just been out for my New Years resolution run - very calm out there at the moment.

[Jason T]

 https://twitter.com/metdesk/status/418846355172626432/photo/1

WOW    https://twitter.com/NASA/status/418837494000410624/photo/1

[john pike]

i will do this the best i can for now

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

 

rain enroute from midnight on some heavier bursts but not persistant

 

should clear by morning rush hour

 

heres the current satellite pic

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html

 

i think we can all see the problem there

 

winds picking up overnight

 

tomorrow

 

 

winds by lunchtime around 30-40 mph gusts

 

maybe a shade higher south coastal regions and far south east

 

looks dry at present there

 

however

 

showers will rattle in quickly throughout the day

 

thankfully only heavy bursts not persistant

 

temps around 10 degrees

 

around 6pm

 

 

 

winds may get a slightly higher rate 40-50mph and still showers rattling in

 

south westerly

 

at present rainfall and wind should not be big issue here

 

water levels are a different issue

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

 

it looks like winds will veer more true south westerly

 

but will weaken down overnight

 

rainfall

 

 

looks like showers rather than heavy rain

 

at 7am

 

troughs to our south west driven in to set off some heavy rain and heavier the further south you are

 

temps

 

cold before rain arrives

 

then warming up to around 6-7 degrees

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

saturday

 

 

 

gusty south west winds early

 

with heavy rain

 

by lunchtime winds veering more westerly and rain clearing by early afternoon

 

temps

 

6-8 degrees

 

feeling colder when the wind swings westerly

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

saturday night

 

a real headache this one

 

low pressure incoming wrapped in 528 dam air

 

so

 

south westerly veering north easterly back to south westerly

 

this low is not showing on the ukmo or ecm so expect heavy showers overnight

 

temps

 

cold

 

a chance the north of the region may see something wintry but will quickly revert back to rain

 

temps cold before getting rain

 

then warmer when showers arrive except further north in the cooler air

 

wind not an issue

 

rainfall maybe if the low moves slowly

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

sunday

 

 

looks to start dry

 

but heavy rain not far way from lunchtime on

 

*** potential to see some thunderstorms between mid pm to midnight ****

 

 

 

winds weak south westerly am

 

gaining strength pm to 40-50 mph

 

 

 

 

rain still noticeable and heavy but slowly receeding before lunchtime

 

winds still gusty 40-50 mph

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

monday

 

 

 

although breezy not a real strong wind

 

rainfall at present looks to effect the far south although this may change

 

temps not cold

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

heres mon night and tuesday

 

 

 

 

 

 

these are subject to change

 

mon

 

wet far south and still gusty but not ott

 

tuesday

 

more widespread rain but winds easing

 

cooling down tuesday night on

 

hope this helps

 

john

Edited January 2, 2014 by john pike

[Isabellesnanny]

Thanks John your posts always easy to understand and very helpful.

[john pike]

thanks isabellesnanny

 

i will check the fax charts later to see if any change to the above post later

[john pike]

 

even europe is pointing at that bitter cold air to our north west

[john pike]

fax for monday

 

 

gusty south west winds

 

40 to maybe 50 mph gusts

 

heavy rain moving through quickly most of the south east am

 

sticking around longer to the south of the region until mid pm

 

not cold but feeling chilly in the wind

 

flooding issue far south and other areas to keep watch re environment agency

 

put up tuesday when ready

[john pike]

hi bjaykent

 

was you sticking your neck out with that post

 

i hope you got the point of my one

 

hides in the corner after corny joke

[john pike]

tuesday

 

 

winds gusty but not strong

 

actually these at present look dry

 

for now

 

 

 

1 point re monday

 

we have a strong jet according to gfs for that day

 

 

 

 

 

this may add to the windspeed

 

however will need closer timeframes to be more specific on that

[john pike]

 

  down she goes after the 10th

 

 

windy 5th but nothing major

 

 

wet to the 8th

 

then a bit on the 10th

 

then looking reasonably dry after

[yamkin]

Hi There SE Gang,

 

The COBR meetings are really going into full swing. The Thames Barrier was activated last night and now in full operational mode. The tidal surge is of considerable concern.

 

The energy levels pounding earth have intensified which will increase the low pressure intensity = more adverse conditions.

 

Government has ordered all of the UK councils to have emergency preparedness activated with no excuses.

 

Be safe with blessings.

 

Yamkin