Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Mucka]

Personally I think it's time we bit the bullet and put winter 13/14 to rest. Some may think this is an over reaction but in reality we're looking towards Feb at the earliest for any meaningful cold pattern setting up. I've not seen a single snowfall this winter, not one....and that ranks it up there with the very worst of the '90s dross....at least I saw the odd NW'ly Cheshire gap scenario back then.

 

Someone said the other day that this upcoming spell was 'not your average toppler'....well that's certainly true, it's not even a toppler scenario (which I would quite happily take right now to be honest).

 

As we progress through Feb, lying snow will be harder and harder to maintain and by March snowfall will not lie here...March 2013 taught me that- higher ground still fine though.

 

Hi Crewe, I feel your pain.

I think I mentioned last nights JMA not being an average toppler but that wasn't a comment on what we might expect overall.

 

There is massive uncertainty still as to how things will develop and although run lucky 13 among the GFS ensembles is very unlikely it does emphasise the uncertainty given it is just 96h out.

 

 

I apologise for cherry picking an unlikely chart but it does lead in to a comment about GFS ensembles I was going to make anyway.

They have still not got to grips with the Arctic high as yet with varying solutions in quite a short time-frame and given many aren't really close to what the Euros have been predicting thus far we have to bear that in mind when looking at how they evolve longer term. That said they are slowly getting there which is why I said this morning that I expected them to generally trend colder through the day.

Overall though they seem to disrupt low pressure better than previous sets out to the mid term which is where the real battle between Atlantic and block commences.

Edited January 20, 2014 by Mucka

[IDO]

Doesn't mean that it is 'right' though - fortunately the weather does not run by averages

No of course not. There are many other factors to take into account, but it's a starting point and you can move forward from there. Most forecasters including the anomaly charts (NOAA) use the mean for guidance for the upper flow rather than rely on the vagaries of the op. It's verification stats at D10 are also about 50% better than the op runs. Is there a better forecasting guide?

[Bobby]

Some nasty storms in the GFS ensembles

 

       

[Downpour]

@CreweCold.

Indeed.

I think Ian F's update pretty much puts an end to the fun. Game over for the populous areas of the UK with some snow only for the favoured, isolated spots. Time is running out now.

[The PIT]

Bobby that's what's catching my eye albeit in FI land it's shown both on the GFS and UKMO which gives it a bit more credence. Apart from a possible marginal snow event for us this week that is the most interesting feature. Depending on how wound up it actually gets it could produce a prolonged windy spell of weather.

[stratty]

 

...............need that HP ridging north behind one of those brutes Bobby!

[carinthian]

@CreweCold.Indeed.I think Ian F's update pretty much puts an end to the fun. Game over for the populous areas of the UK with some snow only for the favoured, isolated spots. Time is running out now.

Frustrating really for all you cold lovers in the UK. To add insult to injury the 0c isotherm just entering into Holland. Looks like most models keeping the colder block just out of reach. Maybe chance of another go to come. Slow easterly push of the Atlantic front to produce another spell of copious rainfall to add further woe to your miserable bog winter. Keep my fingers cross that it go goes pear shape but the evidence is overwhelming for the Atlantic to win out again this time.

C

[shedhead]

The latest GFS and UKMO T+144hr charts both have the Atlantic bowling on through with what appears to be little resistance by this time.... lets see what ECM goes for, but I think we are rapidly closing in on a point where it may become very difficult to salvage much from this hiterto dire extended Autumn.

 

GFS

 

 

UKMO

[Paul White.]

Interesting chart not sure about its accuracy courtesy of joe b on twitter

[Bobby]

GEFS mean at day 10

 

 

Still staring down the barrel of the Canadian cyclone cannon to our NW.

It just won't go away!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

GEFS mean at day 10

 

 

Still staring down the barrel of the Canadian cyclone cannon to our NW.

It just won't go away!

Jet looks to be sinking south to me Bobby? Granted probably not great for the South but further north and altitude could be OK...

[Bobby]

Jet looks to be sinking south to me Bobby? Granted probably not great for the South but further north and altitude could be OK...

 

More or less aimed straight at us really, the European view

 

 

 

Somewhat of a SE tilt near us but just generally unsettled for most, perhaps some interest for high ground in the N at times. Vortex to NW and a strong Azores high is a real pain for cold.

Edited January 20, 2014 by Bobby

[supernova]

Lots of time for upgrades and there'll be some changes yet as we approach the weekend. Until last night winter was over, I mean really completely, utterly, throw in the towel over according to lots of posters on here, then it was back on, now it's not sure. Let's see.

 

oooh! this from the well respected, built for a small island JMA…just saying.

Edited January 20, 2014 by supernova

[nick sussex]

A frustrating evening so far with the models now edging the pattern eastwards after briefly threatening a westwards trend, there are some differences between the UKMO and GFS over the Svalbard region, the latter removes the shortwave and therefore allows a lobe of high pressure to stretch north, the UKMO keeps the shortwave but then has a stronger Arctic high at T144hrs.

 

The bowling ball low then at T144hrs isn't great especially as this deepens , fills slowly basically waiting for some renewed energy spilling east out of the PV to phase with it.

 

There are a few better GEFS members but the problem is clear in most, not enough amplification upstream, the Azores high is too flat and doesn't buy enough time for the low to fill and move se'wards cleanly.

 

Whilst the Arctic high remains on the scene theres still hope for a better outcome but theres only so much that can do, I really hope this isn't gearing up to be a cold spring with the PV finally giving up in March, personally I'm not a great lover of slush synoptics, I know last March especially early was exceptional in terms of cold but you simply can't avoid the stronger sun then and unless you're on high ground its often rather underwhelming once you get into the middle of March.

 

Lets see what the ECM can do, its been the most reluctant so far but you never know  maybe that will just keep the drama going.

[Polar Maritime]

There's some real knee jerk reactions in the MOD, Just over half way through Winter 

 

Lot's of potential from the N/W from the end of the week, we are not going to get an Easterly this time round, but it wont be back to the typical Atlantic we have had to endure so far this Winter, I expect lows to push further South this time round with a more disrupted Vortex pulling colder shot's of air down with them. Winter is far from over, unless you are expecting another 2010...

 

EDIT; And we all know how that suddenly happened .

Edited January 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Ali1977]

The JMA does look good at 192, let's hope the ECM follow it.

Just wondering, if the JMA is nowhere near as good as the GFS , ECM or UKMO why do they bother spending all their money using it?

[fergieweather]

 

I really hope this isn't gearing up to be a cold spring with the PV finally giving up in March, personally I'm not a great lover of slush synoptics, I know last March especially early was exceptional in terms of cold but you simply can't avoid the stronger sun then and unless you're on high ground its often rather underwhelming once you get into the middle of March.

Yes, it's interesting re Spring, especially given the latest GloSea5 update published today with the milder-or-average anomalies continuing through Feb-March-April (and for that matter positive anomalies into Summer, as CFS has also called for). Anyway, that's doubtless a discussion best suited for the seasonal thread I'd imagine (although GloSea5 is a model, nonethless!). Edited January 20, 2014 by fergieweather

[Mucka]

The JMA does look good at 192, let's hope the ECM follow it.Just wondering, if the JMA is nowhere near as good as the GFS , ECM or UKMO why do they bother spending all their money using it?

 

As Ian F stated the MetO rate it so that is good enough for me. That JMA is last nights by the way, tonight's will update shortly.

[Cloud 10]

Lots of time for upgrades and there'll be some changes yet as we approach the weekend. Until last night winter was over, I mean really completely, utterly, throw in the towel over according to lots of posters on here, then it was back on, now it's not sure. Let's see.

 

oooh! this from the well respected, built for a small island JMA…just saying.

 

Lets hope today's JMA looks similar. 

 

ECM's turn now.

[swfc]

ecm at 72 hrs already geared up to steam threw the uk im afraid.Altho can deliver id agree with one or two posters that the grim reality is that the clocks ticking and not atm looking good.Ialso dont want a cold spring and am now ready for some warm sunny and dry days

[karyo]

 Yes, it's interesting re Spring, especially given the latest GloSea5 update published today with the milder-or-average anomalies continuing through Feb-March-April.

Oh dear, do you realise your statement can send most snow starved people here on prozac?

 

Karyo

[nick sussex]

 Yes, it's interesting re Spring, especially given the latest GloSea5 update published today with the milder-or-average anomalies continuing through Feb-March-April (and for that matter positive anomalies into Summer, as CFS has also called for). Anyway, that's doubtless a discussion best suited for the seasonal thread I'd imagine (although GloSea5 is a model, nonethless!).

I would be surprised if we did see a mild spring especially if the winter doesn't deliver, once the PV does depart it could end up one of those if only situations for coldies in here. Last spring was really very poor , here most crops were as much as 6 weeks late! I love the cold and snow but have an aversion to slush and really only enjoy it when you can have those lovely walks in sparkling sunshine and crunchy snow!

[fergieweather]

 

no I'm going by the met extended outlook. Ian's updates that the Atlantic taking charge again into next week. We been chasing cold since November on the charts. And I think it's time now to give it up for me anyway. The next 10 days on the charts and ensembles don't paint anything uk cold wide. So that takes us into feb. Sorry but just how I feel tonight think like I said Ian's update is a real kick in the teeth

I'm bemused because no update today has been anything really at odds with expectations expressed over last 48hrs re *likely* outcomes over next few days? Yes, the odd bit of transient wintry interest, for sure; varied uncertainties further ahead albeit it's issues of whatever runs through a westerly pattern and how (i.e. offering somewhat more northerly components at times during next 10-15d); thus passing colder phases with mostly hill snow (as per UKMO updates)... I can't see anything has drastically changed in the currently available 12z output to warrant 'kick in the teeth' analogies? Or maybe I missed something earlier in the thread re expectations - I don't know.

[Weather-history]

(and for that matter positive anomalies into Summer, as CFS has also called for).

That wouldn't be the same CFS that quite often suggested a northerly blocked winter during the autumn by any chance?

[Gaz1985]

 

Yes, it's interesting re Spring, especially given the latest GloSea5 update published today with the milder-or-average anomalies continuing through Feb-March-April (and for that matter positive anomalies into Summer, as CFS has also called for). Anyway, that's doubtless a discussion best suited for the seasonal thread I'd imagine (although GloSea5 is a model, nonethless!).

 

Thanks for the updates today fergie, it's made my day much better 

 

Manchester ens looks very wet at times though urggghhh!

 

Edited January 20, 2014 by Gaz1985